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staringclown

Seems it's arrived

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Basically if you want to choose a group of people I can give you quite a few reasons for them to be pissed at Trump. There is almost no group that he has managed to actually help out much except, maybe, and even then only really tenuously the uber rich. Mostly that seems fairly accidental byproducts of him trying to help his own family out though.

Trying to force a foreign company to sell it's US operations to Microsoft and demanding the lion share of the sale price is not really making him loved by the uber rich as it is a bad precedent.

 

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Does investing in Africa make sense? I have been sent this link. Africa has caught up with the 90's. Asia was in the same place not long ago. There is similar risk in terms of corruption and sovereign risk.  ‘invest where it’s still 1981’ is the catch cry. This is the same people that bought you the sovereign man web site. 

 

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Sweden has been seen as a horror case in regards to Covid19 policies. For what it's worth, here are some charts from the SVT news site (Swedish version of the ABC): https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/

zzwyET2.png

gExuxpA.png

The cumulative number of deaths over time is pretty bad at 5 766, of which 70 have been people below the age of 50:

3i1F2kn.png

Hopefully, Sweden will not see a second outbreak in the coming autumn/winter.

Edited by AndersB

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Are you still in contact with many people in Sweden? Something changed there (or in the US) about 6 weeks ago I think. Since 2020-03-30 Sweden's rate of change for week end deaths was in step with the US. Let's say about 3 months where the two countries increase was close enough to the same (nowhere else matched that well, most countries I follow have had very different responses and different rates of change).

6 weeks back (July fourth weekend) the rate of change was a little bit out of step with each other. I suspected it could be just reporting error from the States due to the holiday. Since then Sweden has gone from a 4% increase in deaths week on week to this week close enough to zero. US has stayed flat at 5% increase each week.

Sweden has joined Norway, NZ and (oddly) Spain with basically zero percent of their deaths having happened last week.

I'd be interested to hear what, if anything, Swedes think changed maybe 8 weeks ago, I didn't see any policy news but did see a bit more "distrust of the path chosen for us" around then I guess.

Australia was a 42% increase in deaths from last weeks number. New cases look to be on the way down now for aus so the death rates ought to start to decrease again in 3 or 4 weeks.

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I am in Sweden right now and have been here for the last couple of years. But I am planning to move back to Australia later this year.

There has been little change in policies in Sweden since the start. If anything, restrictions have been easing since 13 June when domestic travel was allowed again.

The SVT website shows interesting data. In the region of Skåne (Scania), where I live, we have seen only 1/5th of the number of deaths and 1/4th of the number of cases per 100,000 people compared to the Stockholm region. But Stockholm is showing a strong trend of falling cases and deaths, whereas this is not yet a clear trend in Skåne. The few other regions with even fewer cases/deaths per 100,000 people (like Gotland and Blekinge) seem to show a small increasing trend in cases.

However, Skåne, Blekinge, and Gotland are popular areas for domestic (and international) tourism, so it could be that recent cases have been due to crowding at resorts and holiday destinations during summer.

Edited by AndersB

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Also, the restrictions on domestic travel since April (that were lifted in June) were just strong recommendations and not legislated or enforced.

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Here are some interesting statistics about deaths by all causes from the Swedish Statistics Bureau (SCB):

https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/doda-i-sverige/

If you click on "Visa hela artikeln" (show whole article) you get this link to an Excel file:

Preliminär statistik över döda 2015-2020 (Excel)

The Table 5 ("Tabell 5") sheet shows this chart of deaths for both genders that I have translated:

okXaKJJ.png

So the number of deaths per week by all causes is now below what has been the average per week over the last 5 years. This trend has been in place since week 28 (ending 12 July) until the latest reported week 31 (ending 2 August)

 

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On 12/08/2020 at 1:20 AM, AndersB said:

Also, the restrictions on domestic travel since April (that were lifted in June) were just strong recommendations and not legislated or enforced.

To what would you attribute the fall in death rate Anders?

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On 16/08/2020 at 3:50 AM, staringclown said:

To what would you attribute the fall in death rate Anders?

My guess is that a few factors contribute to the fall in the death rate:

1) There is probably some herd immunity in the population, which leads to fewer cases and deaths. But I think case mortality rates have also declined.

2) Treatment protocols for Covid19 patients may have improved

3) It was recognised that a very large portion of deaths (>50%) were in age care homes. I think protection of these people have improved a lot.

4) As you can see in the statistics of deaths by age group - the average age of those dying in Covid19 is over 80 years. This is close to the average life expectancy of Swedish people anyway. Perhaps many of those that died were due to die soon anyway, which would lead to fewer people are due to die now since Covid19 got them first a little bit early.

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1. Pretty sure herd immunity is quoted at up around the 60 - 70% range. If that had been achieved in Sweden then the death rate is -insanely- low. I'd guess 10M people in Sweden, assuming 60% you're still talking 6M people have had the virus with almost 6K deaths. That's a rate of 0.1% which is, if I remember correctly, a third lower than flu rates. From memory Sweden is a mostly centralised population (unlike the US) so where they can have NY/NJ go mental but other large population centres basically free and skew the stats over the whole country that way I don't think Sweden would have that.

2. Certainly one of the things I worried a lot about for the US was that people basically wouldn't get tested, wouldn't get treatment during the onset etc and just basically turn up last minute because of the cost of healthcare, uninsured (from memory 1% of americans have no healthcare). If Swedes that get symptoms are getting treated (which makes sense) then that could maybe explain it.

3. Yeah the aged care was a royal f*ckup in Montreal as well. I am not 100% Montreal has actually fixed that yet or if it is just "oh well they have achieved herd immunity so we don't need to do sh*t" :) We had on the news that Montreal was the deadliest place on the planet for a week or two as the oldsters got nailed. I think we got a severe disabusing of our "canada stereotypes" by being there during this silliness.

4. Swedish life span at birth is 80 odd isn't it? Anyone that makes it through their 20's would have a way higher life expectancy. From memory in the US if you make it to 70 you are expected to live to about 85, I am assuming Swedish numbers are similar but probably better. I think Swedens "over 80's" is like a million people or so. I am guessing Sweden is like other countries with high life expectancies and 80 is not the age you go to a home. I am going to have think about this one :) Certainly 80 yr olds wandering the community at large is a problem in Japan, does that increase their odds of catching it and does the mobility and generally better health fight it off better.

Maybe it is mostly a combo of sedentary living and being old?

Japan is certainly not helping with numbers at the moment but they have a great comparison group if that were the case.

 

 

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Here is an interesting article about possible herd immunity in Sweden:

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/

Immunity is a complex thing that doesn't just depend on only antibodies.

In regards to the age of patients that have died of Covid19; there was an article published yesterday in Läkartidningen ("Medical Doctors Magazine") that a study in the region of Östergötland found that the median age was 88. They found that of all the Covid19 classified deaths - in only 15% of the cases were Covid19 the direct cause of death.

https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/08/covid-19-oftast-inte-ensam-orsak-vid-dodsfall-bland-aldre/

Google translate:

Quote

Covid-19 is not usually the only cause of death among the elderly

A majority of those who died with confirmed covid-19 outside the hospital had underlying diseases. It shows a review done by Region Östergötland.

Sara Pramsten
sara.pramsten@lakartidningen.se
PUBLISHED:
Lakartidningen.se 2020-08-17

Region Östergötland has examined all deaths that have died at home or in special housing with confirmed covid-19. Records from 122 people have been reviewed, which is 51 percent of the 240 people who had died in the county when the review was done.

The cause of death in the cause of death certificate has been covid-19, but the review shows that other diseases may have contributed or been the decisive cause of death - for example, heart disease, lung disease or dementia.

111 of the deceased outside the hospital had extensive comorbidity and 11 moderate comorbidity. Half were 88 years or older.

Covid-19 was estimated to be the direct cause of death in 15 percent of deaths. For a majority of the deceased - as many as 70 percent - covid-19 was a contributing factor rather than a direct cause. In 15 percent, the cause of death was judged to be other diseases, then most often heart disease.

- In some cases, the covid-19 diagnosis may have contributed to the death occurring earlier than it otherwise would have done. The review shows that very many of those who died with covid-19 outside the hospital had expected short survival. But every death is of course sad for the relatives, says Stefan Franzén, medical director in the Östergötland Region, in a press release.

The review has also looked at what care efforts have been made. Care plans were drawn up in 90 percent of the cases. Morphine preparations were the basis of palliative care and in isolated cases there was treatment with oxygen. Respiratory symptoms have rarely dominated the last days before death, instead it has often been a general weakening, according to the review.

The region has now also initiated a medical examination for the patients who died with covid-19 in hospital.

- The review is part of our patient safety work and a way to learn more about covid-19 and how we should manage the disease, says Stefan Franzén.

Edited by AndersB

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Yeah I have seen a few of the T cell response articles around and wondered what their end result would be if true. It'll be interesting to see if the Swedish trend continues and could be great for other countries which don't want to hit the 500 deaths per million people. I am guessing that whatever triggered the T cell imprint was probably only mildly contagious and mildly lethal so if all the rushed vaccines turn out to suck it might be worth just catching whatever that previous thing was :)

At least we are likely to have some nice comparative strategies once this is all over so countries can choose with open eyes for the next one.

Must be an exciting time to be a phd candidate!

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On 18/08/2020 at 4:37 AM, AndersB said:

My guess is that a few factors contribute to the fall in the death rate:

1) There is probably some herd immunity in the population, which leads to fewer cases and deaths. But I think case mortality rates have also declined.

2) Treatment protocols for Covid19 patients may have improved

3) It was recognised that a very large portion of deaths (>50%) were in age care homes. I think protection of these people have improved a lot.

4) As you can see in the statistics of deaths by age group - the average age of those dying in Covid19 is over 80 years. This is close to the average life expectancy of Swedish people anyway. Perhaps many of those that died were due to die soon anyway, which would lead to fewer people are due to die now since Covid19 got them first a little bit early.

I'm curious mainly due to behavioural changes in the populace as well as improved treatment of the affected. Have you observed any of these factors at work? Otherwise it's herd immunity and f*ck the old.

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On 16/08/2020 at 6:30 PM, zaph said:

I watched the interview. Nothing I saw struck me as either partisan or duplicitous. Nor anything incongruous with Trump behaviour. Snopes isn't really required to validate the book. I'll loan you a copy.

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On 18/08/2020 at 5:53 PM, AndersB said:

Here is an interesting article about possible herd immunity in Sweden:

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/

Immunity is a complex thing that doesn't just depend on only antibodies.

In regards to the age of patients that have died of Covid19; there was an article published yesterday in Läkartidningen ("Medical Doctors Magazine") that a study in the region of Östergötland found that the median age was 88. They found that of all the Covid19 classified deaths - in only 15% of the cases were Covid19 the direct cause of death.

https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/08/covid-19-oftast-inte-ensam-orsak-vid-dodsfall-bland-aldre/

Google translate:

This is the "they were old anyway - everyones got to die eventually" argument. They have no further economic value. They had it coming! I got nothing but opprobrium from wulfgar years ago from posting a soylent green post. It works when it's not you're gran, uncle or relo in general. The ultimate in economic rationalism.

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12 hours ago, tor said:

Yeah I have seen a few of the T cell response articles around and wondered what their end result would be if true. It'll be interesting to see if the Swedish trend continues and could be great for other countries which don't want to hit the 500 deaths per million people. I am guessing that whatever triggered the T cell imprint was probably only mildly contagious and mildly lethal so if all the rushed vaccines turn out to suck it might be worth just catching whatever that previous thing was :)

At least we are likely to have some nice comparative strategies once this is all over so countries can choose with open eyes for the next one.

Must be an exciting time to be a phd candidate!

A bit like Mengele. Lots of great experiments. 

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4 hours ago, staringclown said:

A bit like Mengele. Lots of great experiments. 

hehehehe. Even if Mengele was the epitomy of evil at least he was doing it for a belief. I can understand that.

Sweden's choice looked stupid to me but I am not that well versed in this arena. At least it looked true to belief.

Pure ignorance and incompetent narcissism I just don't get. "NZ outbreak is awful" on one day followed by "hah she didn't even get the numbers right, 150K? pffft I have killed way more than that" the next. Almost like taking pride in his own incompetence.

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7 hours ago, staringclown said:

This is the "they were old anyway - everyones got to die eventually" argument. They have no further economic value. They had it coming! I got nothing but opprobrium from wulfgar years ago from posting a soylent green post. It works when it's not you're gran, uncle or relo in general. The ultimate in economic rationalism.

Huh? How could you arrive at that conclusion from the published article. It only presented data and findings - there was not a single comment on policy or recommendation in there. The final statement was "The review is part of our patient safety work and a way to learn more about covid-19 and how we should manage the disease"

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On 10/08/2020 at 11:56 PM, AndersB said:

Sweden has been seen as a horror case in regards to Covid19 policies. For what it's worth, here are some charts from the SVT news site (Swedish version of the ABC): https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/

zzwyET2.png

gExuxpA.png

The cumulative number of deaths over time is pretty bad at 5 766, of which 70 have been people below the age of 50:

3i1F2kn.png

Hopefully, Sweden will not see a second outbreak in the coming autumn/winter.

Propaganda is now all about "cases" rather than hospitalisation rates or number of deaths.

Sweden got it right. Full retard in Australia.

Saw a story about a farmer in Victoria who wanted to take feed to his sheep the other side of the Murray River. He was told to take the hay to Melbourne, have it flown to Sydney, and then freighted to western NSW... estimated cost was $50k if I recall correctly. It's madness.

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On 12/08/2020 at 0:43 AM, AndersB said:

I am in Sweden right now and have been here for the last couple of years. But I am planning to move back to Australia later this year.

 

Don't be a fool! It's insane here, seriously! Almost impossible to get out of the country, harder to get in the country (flight caps). State borders closed unconstitutionally. Almost all business shut down in Victoria because a few old and sick people are dying to a virus that influenza probably would have knocked them out with.

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12 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Propaganda is now all about "cases" rather than hospitalisation rates or number of deaths.

Sweden got it right. Full retard in Australia.

Saw a story about a farmer in Victoria who wanted to take feed to his sheep the other side of the Murray River. He was told to take the hay to Melbourne, have it flown to Sydney, and then freighted to western NSW... estimated cost was $50k if I recall correctly. It's madness.

Well deaths have started rising quite significantly in Australia and, even is it is people at the moment that you regard as probably going to have been killed by the flu, each extra death during a lockdown is probably representative of more if the lockdown wasn't in effect.

Sweden with it's 500/Million is, I think, a pretty good case of just how many would die in Aus. 12 500. Currently the official toll is 470 (Although I am sure the media you are consuming will say that number is exaggerated, but that only makes my point worse really doesn't it).

If you are saying another 12 000 people in Aus ought to die for the economy to re open (my reading of your statements) just remember that Swedens economy suffered about the same as all of it's trading partners. So to re open the economy means getting every other country to agree to the same death rate as acceptable.

If the normal Aus flu death rate (~1000 per year [actually way less]) was followed that is 12 years worth of deaths brought forward.

Keep in mind that Sweden has, I would say, a much better health infrastructure and more centralised population that Aus with insanely smaller distances for the remote people.

And all of that is on the optimistic theory that this virus is super good at killing the vulnerable to it fast and Sweden won't have an expansion in deaths. Which is a guess. I f*cking hope it is true as it means that countries can look at a worst case scenario of about 500/M population deaths and work from there. But we really have no f*cking clue at the moment. So far only Belgium has successfully recorded much higher than 500/M and their reasoning is everyone else is lying and underreporting. Excess deaths in the countries I map each week would indicate Belgium is correct.

Your farmer story I just know is bullsh*t. All of these stories are bullsh*t once someone puts the effort in to find out something close to the truth. There is the weird occasional f*ckup in laws and mostly they are resolved within a couple hours because people are not morons. Then there is the odd singular event where a bunch of people are all f*cktards. It doesn't happen often enough for the modern news cycle though so they just do interpretative reports.

(also as a tip, using the word "unconstitutional" is pretty much a dead giveaway that your argument is based on American propaganda, like the sovereign citizen stuff. I am betting dollars to donuts you've been reading a lot of that. Those theories fail in the US and also in Aus. In all practicality if something necessary was agreed by the government they would fast pass an amendment changing the constitution or reframe the wording of the law.)

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5 hours ago, tor said:

Well deaths have started rising quite significantly in Australia and, even is it is people at the moment that you regard as probably going to have been killed by the flu, each extra death during a lockdown is probably representative of more if the lockdown wasn't in effect.

Rising from effective zero and still less than bad flu season.

If you are saying another 12 000 people in Aus ought to die for the economy to re open (my reading of your statements) just remember that Swedens economy suffered about the same as all of it's trading partners. So to re open the economy means getting every other country to agree to the same death rate as acceptable.

There is no perfect option, but the damage done is worse than 12,000 elderly (and extremely sick) people dying prematurely.

And all of that is on the optimistic theory that this virus is super good at killing the vulnerable to it fast and Sweden won't have an expansion in deaths. Which is a guess. I f*cking hope it is true as it means that countries can look at a worst case scenario of about 500/M population deaths and work from there. But we really have no f*cking clue at the moment. So far only Belgium has successfully recorded much higher than 500/M and their reasoning is everyone else is lying and underreporting. Excess deaths in the countries I map each week would indicate Belgium is correct.

Have you got references on excess deaths? I haven't seen any good sources.

Your farmer story I just know is bullsh*t. All of these stories are bullsh*t once someone puts the effort in to find out something close to the truth. There is the weird occasional f*ckup in laws and mostly they are resolved within a couple hours because people are not morons. Then there is the odd singular event where a bunch of people are all f*cktards. It doesn't happen often enough for the modern news cycle though so they just do interpretative reports.

Ah no. This is a legit story. 

(also as a tip, using the word "unconstitutional" is pretty much a dead giveaway that your argument is based on American propaganda, like the sovereign citizen stuff. I am betting dollars to donuts you've been reading a lot of that. Those theories fail in the US and also in Aus. In all practicality if something necessary was agreed by the government they would fast pass an amendment changing the constitution or reframe the wording of the law.)

Ah no. Sovereign citizen is an oxymoron. The Constitution is being ignored as the border closures are explicitly illegal (as are forced vaccinations). It reminded me of a conversation I had with a Ukrainian girl studying law there. She said they have a great constitution, it's just that nobody pays attention to it.

Under international law the Australian government cannot forbid the return of Australian citizens. They have created a loophole by limiting flights to 30 passengers, which in effect is a border closure as there are roughly 19,000 Australians abroad (trying to get back).

Governments in Oz are simply not being held to account in the legal system - except for Clive Palmer because he has deep pockets.

 

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17 hours ago, tor said:

...(also as a tip, using the word "unconstitutional" is pretty much a dead giveaway that your argument is based on American propaganda, like the sovereign citizen stuff. I am betting dollars to donuts you've been reading a lot of that. Those theories fail in the US and also in Aus. In all practicality if something necessary was agreed by the government they would fast pass an amendment changing the constitution or reframe the wording of the law.)

Nah - it's the very Aussie vibe of the thing.

 

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On 8/21/2020 at 5:49 PM, Mr Medved said:

State borders closed unconstitutionally. 

That's for the High Court to decide and I think the time they're taking to hear Palmer's case may indicate the state border closures are unconstitutional. It's appalling what govts are getting away with under the covid cloud. 

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