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staringclown

Seems it's arrived

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New theory. Giuliani has been searching the world for any dirt on Biden. Around October, Barr will change Biden with some trumped up offence. There will be an "investigation". It only has to muddy the water until the Election Day.

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Seems fairly likely. Maybe it'll backfire if the senate ditches Trump though. His commuting of Stones sentence seems to have got a few feathers riled up (granted mostly in the usual circles).

I guess at least we found out yesterday that Trump has never been against masks and has started wearing one. Coincidently on the day the death rate ticked up. Disturbing for me is the death rate uptick actually happened 2 weeks ago and was ignored then 4th of July happened which muted last weeks numbers. This week is still working through the backlog of 4th of July as far as I can tell so I think we'll finish tomorrow with a smallish uptick and next week will be nasty.

The Sweden / US correlation has gone away by 2 pts this week already (despite Sweden having a pretty crap week). I am not expecting that correlation to return as I haven't read any significant changes to Swedish policy.

US death rate is still at around 3% of diagnosed cases. Total deaths is 100K. If everyone in the US caught the disease the extrapolation is 10M deaths. Herd immunity is said to be around 60% of the population; say 60M deaths.

Current guidelines are projecting 200K deaths by November. I do not feel those guidelines are super accurate unless some special thing happens between now and then.

Having spent last night chatting to an American across the room I have had my hopes of rational thought reduced but still..

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It seems there are existing an inexpensive measures to manage infections before things get really bad -

"Zelenko Protocol" https://drdrew.com/2020/dr-vladimir-zelenko-speaks-openly-on-hydroxychloriquine/

I understand with that doctors are using this approach as a prophylactic to protect themselves, so if true means it is safe and they have concerns. I take zinc routinely but obviously not the other meds.

Budesonide https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200707/Asthma-inhalers-being-trialed-for-treatment-of-COVID-19.aspx

It seems to have good results for early treatment, again this is cheap and known. I bought a stack of regular asthma puffers earlier in the year as I figured it would be prudent (my son and I are mildly asthmatic).

The key seems to be early treatment and management. Things can go pear-shaped even for relatively healthy people if left untreated.

I will put my tinfoil hat on, but I think big pharma connections are hushing up these measures to push out vaccines that aren't properly tested or effective.

 

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Gotta love the hat :)

Realistically pretty much anything and everything is being thrown at people to see what happens. Hydroxychloroquine is hardly a hushed up topic when the President of the US says he is using it and the US has stockpiled 63 million doses.

The problem is that there is no time to actually do proper studies (and the ethics are troublesome as well). So pretty much all of these are anecdotal. What studies have been done all seem to have enough confounding factors and low enough results that they are debatable. Hell making patients sleep on their stomach has better results than many of the drug results in some Drs experience.

Anyone wanting clicks will write pretty much anything mentioned by anyone, even more if they have Dr in their name. I'd be looking for what they are a Dr in and what their history is. If they were someone that, for example, jumped on the "media induced panic" bandwagon and they are not epidemiologists I might suspect their opinion is about as worthless as anyone else's.

It hasn't even been decided if it is a blood virus or respiratory so I'd be wary of trying things except for avoiding contact with other humans. If you should decide to try things you probably want to check the known side effects (I assume with the hat on you won't speak to a doctor).

 

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20 hours ago, tor said:

...and they are not epidemiologists I might suspect their opinion is about as worthless as anyone else's.

Epidemiologists are pretty much just statisticians and know next to nothing about clinical therapeutic treatment of viral lung disease. I think an expert immunologist or a pulmonologist would be better people to listen to.

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I meant in context of "which studies / experimental usages were any good" I figure epidemiologists are going to be much more experienced at looking at a set of results from guyA using a new treatment and saying whether it looks interesting or is probably just noise.

For deciding which treatments might work then, yeah, a specialist in that type of disease is a good idea. At the moment my news feed is still getting all the weird secondary symptoms which make this particular virus look weird enough that there are new theories popping up fairly often which means specialists in whichever type of disease it is is still tricky.

I'd prefer to go second on any new drug treatments :)

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Be careful with news feeds. We can probably agree that journalists are the worst people to listen to regarding health advice or interpreting scientific studies.

Google scholar is fairly good - you can search for published studies within a date range (e.g. 2020 only) and see how often the studies have been cited. A study with a higher cite count tends to be 'interesting':

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=2020&q="covid-19"&btnG=

It also helps to know the quality of the journals:

https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2701

But then again, there was recently an infamous study about hydroxychloroquine published in the Lancet that was later retracted:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

Let me give you an example of interesting things you can find out that journalists don't seem to want to cover: why is Covid-19 prevalence and mortality higher among black people?

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/

One potential reason stated in the study is that vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among blacks. That makes sense since black people living in northern hemisphere countries with low sunlight would have a problem with vitamin D. Then you can do a Google Scholar search for vitamin D and immune system health:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q="vitamin+d"+immune+system&btnG=

Which reveals that there seems to be a strong link between vitamin D deficiency and having a weak immune system.

Then one may ask: why doesn't public officials recommend people to strengthen their natural immune system? It may be as simple as getting good sleep, exercise, and making sure to get adequate vitamin D. That would be extremely cost efficient health economics if such measures reduce the spread of Covid-19 or reduce its effect.

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I agree, mostly I just read the news feeds then follow up anything that looks interesting. https://www.eurekalert.org/ is a good news feed for that as they usually have links to studies / more information which makes it easier.

With regard to the Black Americans / vitamin D thing I did actually go down a rabbit hole after chatting with a Dr guy from McGill uni (up the road). He is fairly sure it could be a red herring.

https://bmcproc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12919-018-0102-4?utm_source=BMC_blog&utm_medium=Blog&utm_content=DavFal-BMC-BMC_Proceedings-Public_Health-Global&utm_campaign=BMCS_USG_MAY2018_Vitamin_D_paradox_Black_Americans

tldr; Black Americans have always measured low on the tests but don't exhibit the bone density / fracture incidents etc that white people with the same levels have. Possibly it is used differently. If so we're measuring the wrong thing, certainly in the case of bone strength indicators we are.

His opinion (and my news feeds) seem to indicate a high correlation for American covid deaths with obesity, being poor and lack of insurance. Whites in the same situation seem to suck just as bad at staying alive.

Diabetes also seemed to crop up a few times as linked with covid deaths and Black Americans have been leaders in that race long enough that higher death rates would be expected if diabetes did help kill you in the presence of covid.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2089102/

One of the more interesting things I have been reading recently is just the weird symptoms, clotting, cardiac issues etc which seem unusual for an upper respiratory virus. It has been showing up on eureka a bit more often recently (although observers bias heh).

I guess with the Southern states starting their deaths we'll have some decent data from there eventually as well. They tend to be poorer than the Northern states. Although they tend Republican as well which might confound things a little.

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hmm maybe decent data from the US has gone away as an idea :) the white house has decided that the CDC doesn't do it right and they want all data sent to Health and Human services which, on the surface, seems a more political part of the government. Time will tell if they keep reporting accurately but I'd guess most counters will be off for a couple weeks while it gets sorted out. The US deaths are 2 weeks in a row the highest in a month with an obvious case load indication of higher deaths next week.

Political or not I doubt I could write a new DB for tracking complex data accurately in a few weeks so whether this is some silly nonsense or sensible the data is probably going to be sh*t for a bit.

I suspect the reality will be worse than the data. Montreal is -way- worse than say Portugal for deaths despite being richer and so on. US makes Canadians scared. The pressure to open the border is crazy.

And this is "Construction week". Which I have decided is now my favourite holiday week. It used to be "Golden week" in Japan because everyone just goes and gets drunk at the beer festivals making "golden" quite a bit more literal than intended.

But "Construction Week" is where all the construction workers said "f*ck you we aren't doing anything this week".

And it is now a real thing, I think it is 40% of Montreals tourism. Montreal has a wee bit of a problem with bar induced corona from the past few weeks at the moment.

It must win the prize for cynical holiday. Even places that make you work on Labour Day could take a lesson from this one.

US deaths are now back as bad as when two cities had the virus just over a month back. One public holiday in the mix skewed numbers. Things go mental in the South next week. Fortunately we are off on Friday to our quarantine in Poland.

N. East Poland. Near the mental f*ckers that like invading palces. I really need to start planning our lives better.

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Vitamin D deficiency is a problem but there are many factors. Smokers get hit really hard. Those with diabetes or obesity are also hit harder. I did read stuff about binding to ACE2 receptors impacting Asians more but effed if I know if it was legit or not.

The sun is your friend! I take Vitamin D tablets by routine, as well as zinc and other stuff, before any of this broke out. Sleep is also your friend.

It's no wonder China was hit hard early (air pollution,high rates of male smokers, multi-generational homes, ageing population), similar demographic issues with northern Italy. New York is on average the oldest city in the USA so was bound to be hit hard, and sending people into nursing homes after being infected, lol yeah good thinking idiots.

I trust people at the coal face more than others. HCQ is a known drug, zinc is known, not sure about the other one. Dirt cheap with little risks for most people. If I get a travel exemption I will be hitting up doctors for a prescription as proactive treatment. Apparently it was used in Russia which may explain high case rate but relatively low CFR.

I'd be staying away from vaccines! I did read a report that if you took the flu shoot you were worse off when it comes to COVID-19. Whatever this virus is, it is nasty nasty sh*t and I'm 99.9999% convinced it originated in a lab. Possibly a bioweapon but unwilling to stake money on it,but certainly is man-made. Vaccines are not 100% safe or 100% reliable, and can take decades before adverse side effects are discovered.

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Vitamin D has had a hard couple of years in the studies I have read. I have alerts for VitD studies due to an idea I had regarding the diabetes link, diagnosis growth and the Australian 80's slip slop slap campaign from when I used to do the database support for diabetes australia and was doing data growth analysis for performance reasons. It's a half arsed idea and I freely admit there are tons of alternatives but if the idea turns out to be true I can feel superior for having seen it back in 2005 :)

I am still a hopeful fan of the vitamin and do supplement during winter but I suspect it is close enough to making expensive urine now. Cheaper than scotch flavoured urine so I'll probably stick with it til I see anything adverse. Hell I stick with making scotch flavoured urine -despite- adverse studies...

I don't trust people at the coal face of medicine, they are rarely correct. Ask any doctor about, say, salt and blood pressure connections from the worlds largest medical study into anything ever and see what they say. People at the coal face are emotionally involved, have stupid ideas like my suncream one and have limited data. With that in place you don't even need corruption or big pharma conspiracy theories.

The sheer number of failed statements by "people at the coal face" on either side indicates they are useless as a source of information unless you pick the 1% that guess right.

If you genuinely plan to use HCQ I think you should read an awful lot more. By itself mostly it seems useless currently. Even the supporters are claiming various combos are needed and timing and a bunch of things. HCQ -does- have significant side effect risk which, in conjunction with the blood clotting in covid autopsies, would make me want to stay inside for at least 6 months reading up on it in a pretty serious way. And if you believe that Russia with it's relatively opaque reporting habits is telling you the truth and every other country is doing it wrong... meh, your choice. I'd say there are better countries to copy.

The vaccines, fortunately for you, you won't get a chance to try the first ones. Rich countries will have bought them up before you get a shot :) at the moment the media is being super weak on the negatives of the vaccines pushed out so far, read the oxford/wuhan first wave tests and you'll see that staying inside for 6 months seems more fun. I get that stock prices are on the barrel here but I do think the journalists need to at least be able to read a study as well as me. Unreported in the media adjuncts to testing worry me a bit. (6hrly paracetamol injections for example, I can't even remember where I read that, it is -not- in the lancet study that I recall and I just did a quick search, might have used a different name). Rushing vaccines is probably a bad idea, Trump has been putting words in peoples mouths since day 1 (watch the pharma / fauci / trump coverage for Trump just "bad customering" the pharma guys into being vague and saying something technically true but knowing Trump is hearing what he wants to hear and that bit is not true. Trump wants a vaccine before the election. The company that delivers it will sell a lot of vaccine. When testing is being done in a different fashion and there is no reason for me to use the product I will take the other choice (staying inside for 6 months, bubbling and wearing a mask).

I see no reason for it to be man-made and frankly think anyone that cares about that aspect is getting their priorities mismatched or trying to manipulate me. That is statistically how manipulation is done. I don't have time to debunk every idiot in the world so I just watch for key phrases and behaviour so I can dismiss the vast majority of people trying to take advantage of me.

Now that Trump has decided masks work and cancelled his rallies (and wasn't that fun to see his attention span fail so miserably at the 7 minute mark that he couldn't read, forgot to call it the china virus) I am interested to see what your conspiracy friends make of him. I am guessing that it will be "The deep state got to him" then they will start using the ramp and the drinking to show how the deep state have drugged him to make him compliant. You heard it here first, I thought of this and have not read it anywhere.

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On 24/07/2020 at 11:00 AM, tor said:

Now that Trump has decided masks work and cancelled his rallies (and wasn't that fun to see his attention span fail so miserably at the 7 minute mark that he couldn't read, forgot to call it the china virus) I am interested to see what your conspiracy friends make of him. I am guessing that it will be "The deep state got to him" then they will start using the ramp and the drinking to show how the deep state have drugged him to make him compliant. You heard it here first, I thought of this and have not read it anywhere.

I was a bit concerned that the orange one's new campaign management were going to have an impact on his election prospects. He looked briefly like he would take their advice. I needn't have worried. He almost immediately flipped his sh*t back to support for wacko conspiracy theories. 

I liked your "deep state got to him" idea. It's certainly more plausible than alien DNA and demonspawn. That's the thing about the Donald. As fast as you can think of crazy - he acts faster. 

Undermining the postal vote seems to be a thing now. If he wins - it's in spite of the rigging. If he loses - it's cos it was rigged. 

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What about if the liberal free speech that the the west holds dear can be used against us? I've just watched a four corners report. 5G is spreading coronavirus. Plenty of crackpots support this view. China and Russia are adopting 5G wholesale. No such doubts in their economy. Doubt is sown in the west and due to freedom of speech many crackers slow the adoption. The anti-science bias makes sense in this scenario. Had some beers so paranoia may be the overriding factor. Seeking validation. TBH it's not beyond imagination...

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3 hours ago, staringclown said:

I was a bit concerned that the orange one's new campaign management were going to have an impact on his election prospects. He looked briefly like he would take their advice. I needn't have worried. He almost immediately flipped his sh*t back to support for wacko conspiracy theories. 

I liked your "deep state got to him" idea. It's certainly more plausible than alien DNA and demonspawn. That's the thing about the Donald. As fast as you can think of crazy - he acts faster. 

Undermining the postal vote seems to be a thing now. If he wins - it's in spite of the rigging. If he loses - it's cos it was rigged. 

"I don't trust people at the coal face of medicine, they are rarely correct" - Demon Sperm Dr

"Maybe staying closed a few more weeks is a goodidea" - Melbourne shutdown

I am pissing all over people with AI I f*cking tells ya :)

I am fairly sure that he can't get a capitalist campaign manager because he doesn't pay and he can't get a communist campaign manager because he won't follow orders. Odds of him quitting the race in about a month seem higher to me. Still haven't found an easy way to put a couple of grand on that bet though (I admit I haven't tried that hard but I figure odds have to be currently 100-1 and dropping).

Banning mail in voting is more likely to hurt some of the republicans in risk so if McConnell follows his friday (?) leak I'd say the republicans are going to support mail in. Then try and find a way of weaseling out of it in future when it will possibly kill the republican gerrymandering quite efficiently. Seems at the moment McConnell is just aiming for minimal losses right now rather than worrying too much about 4 years from now. I have a feeling Tucker has pissed McConnell off enough and McConnell is pissed about the supremes and is hoping to minimise entrenching those losses, if Roberts stays liberal leaning and RBG dies with a democrat in power that is a significant problem for the republican agenda.

Especially with chances for reversal of Kavanaugh being sort of within the realm of possible. That basically ends the past decades of right wing tendency in the court. So McConnell needs to keep Roberts focussed on "it's just Trump, we'll lose this one and fix it later".

My guesses anyway.

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1 hour ago, staringclown said:

What about if the liberal free speech that the the west holds dear can be used against us? I've just watched a four corners report. 5G is spreading coronavirus. Plenty of crackpots support this view. China and Russia are adopting 5G wholesale. No such doubts in their economy. Doubt is sown in the west and due to freedom of speech many crackers slow the adoption. The anti-science bias makes sense in this scenario. Had some beers so paranoia may be the overriding factor. Seeking validation. TBH it's not beyond imagination...

For my money it is better for society to tolerate the anti vaxxers, flat earthers, anti 5g etc people.

There are actual real problems in society and we need to have the f*ck knuckles feel free to speak out. Sometimes they are right. 50 yrs back a lot of people would have put gay rights in the same bucket as I put 5G nonsense now. 150 yrs ago debtors prison was considered smart. By allowing -all- the idiots to rant the ones that are actually correct slowly gain power and we get rid of slavery and we get, as a society, richer.

Totalitarian societies (lord I hope none of Mr Medveds kids turn out to be gay if they move to Russia) don't allow the tools to talk which means they can also just flat out kill the ones identifying the real problems.

This doesn't mean I don't think people espousing 5G theories, gay frogs, hydroxychloroquine etc are believable. I think they are all falling for propaganda. I just know that some of them will maybe be right so I judge them by their company. The ones that are right tend not to have that many flaky friends and don't tend to be selling anything.

Usually the buzzwords give them away nice and quick nowadays if you spend a little time reading comments outside your curated feeds. Just keep up with the new pushed talking point and you have a quick "spot them in the wild" card.

For example Mr Medved screwed up because they forget (or didn't spend the localisation money) that the propaganda he is receiving is american and "coal face" vs "front line" is a culturally different thing for Australians.

Then when the propaganda which had prepped him for "I believe the frontline workers" was backed up with "America's Frontline Doctors" talking about hydroxychloroquine it probably didn't work as well because in his head was "coalface" rather than "FrontLine".

It's pretty obvious in hindsight I guess but I find it quite hard to see coming as they do tend to be trying multiple talking points and I often am not sure which one they are going to use until it shows up outside my "dumb dumb people" feeds.

 

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What I do know is Victoria (and Australia) is screwed right now by shutdowns, and will be screwed into the foreseeable future.

Speaking to a mate in Russia it seems pretty much everywhere is screwed right now, just in its own ways. RUB is dropping against AUD and other currencies. I'd buy a cheap place there and bug out except for the fact I've got kids (and can't move with them). I saw Thai protests against the monarchy in the news. Seems like everything is tearing at the seams right now.

Not sure where I'll be at in six weeks as my contract is up and no word about extensions.Job market is beyond dead. Cash flow is king right now. Everywhere you look it is a horror story. FFS, even a curfew now, never been done before as far as I understand.The time for a hard lockdown was six months ago, the horse has bolted.

The virus is such a minimal concern to me in comparison (and I have elderly family members).

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I honestly pay almost no attention to politics, but don't get the level of hate against Trump. Sure he's dirty, but all the politicians are dirty, so what's the deal?

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19 hours ago, tor said:

"I don't trust people at the coal face of medicine, they are rarely correct" - Demon Sperm Dr

"Maybe staying closed a few more weeks is a goodidea" - Melbourne shutdown

I am pissing all over people with AI I f*cking tells ya :)

I am fairly sure that he can't get a capitalist campaign manager because he doesn't pay and he can't get a communist campaign manager because he won't follow orders. Odds of him quitting the race in about a month seem higher to me. Still haven't found an easy way to put a couple of grand on that bet though (I admit I haven't tried that hard but I figure odds have to be currently 100-1 and dropping).

Banning mail in voting is more likely to hurt some of the republicans in risk so if McConnell follows his friday (?) leak I'd say the republicans are going to support mail in. Then try and find a way of weaseling out of it in future when it will possibly kill the republican gerrymandering quite efficiently. Seems at the moment McConnell is just aiming for minimal losses right now rather than worrying too much about 4 years from now. I have a feeling Tucker has pissed McConnell off enough and McConnell is pissed about the supremes and is hoping to minimise entrenching those losses, if Roberts stays liberal leaning and RBG dies with a democrat in power that is a significant problem for the republican agenda.

Especially with chances for reversal of Kavanaugh being sort of within the realm of possible. That basically ends the past decades of right wing tendency in the court. So McConnell needs to keep Roberts focussed on "it's just Trump, we'll lose this one and fix it later".

My guesses anyway.

It was a bit of a worry when Ginsberg went into hospital. I'm hoping she can hang in until January. I'm not sure about Roberts being liberal leaning. He seems to be quite pedantic in terms of legal process. The result is kinda the same I suppose so that's a good thing. 

Can they reverse the Kavanaugh appointment? I thought they were there for life?

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19 hours ago, tor said:

For my money it is better for society to tolerate the anti vaxxers, flat earthers, anti 5g etc people.

There are actual real problems in society and we need to have the f*ck knuckles feel free to speak out. Sometimes they are right. 50 yrs back a lot of people would have put gay rights in the same bucket as I put 5G nonsense now. 150 yrs ago debtors prison was considered smart. By allowing -all- the idiots to rant the ones that are actually correct slowly gain power and we get rid of slavery and we get, as a society, richer.

Totalitarian societies (lord I hope none of Mr Medveds kids turn out to be gay if they move to Russia) don't allow the tools to talk which means they can also just flat out kill the ones identifying the real problems.

This doesn't mean I don't think people espousing 5G theories, gay frogs, hydroxychloroquine etc are believable. I think they are all falling for propaganda. I just know that some of them will maybe be right so I judge them by their company. The ones that are right tend not to have that many flaky friends and don't tend to be selling anything.

Usually the buzzwords give them away nice and quick nowadays if you spend a little time reading comments outside your curated feeds. Just keep up with the new pushed talking point and you have a quick "spot them in the wild" card.

For example Mr Medved screwed up because they forget (or didn't spend the localisation money) that the propaganda he is receiving is american and "coal face" vs "front line" is a culturally different thing for Australians.

Then when the propaganda which had prepped him for "I believe the frontline workers" was backed up with "America's Frontline Doctors" talking about hydroxychloroquine it probably didn't work as well because in his head was "coalface" rather than "FrontLine".

It's pretty obvious in hindsight I guess but I find it quite hard to see coming as they do tend to be trying multiple talking points and I often am not sure which one they are going to use until it shows up outside my "dumb dumb people" feeds.

 

Absolutely. I wasn't meaning to sound like I was against free speech. The alternative would be terrible. Just that I don't think the west can manipulate opinion in China/Russia as easily as they can us. Propaganda seems to work. 

Generally if someone is going to question science they require science to do it. I'm not familiar with 5G particularly, but I figure if there was a real concern loads of other scientists would be pointing those concerns. There would be a debate. Having said that thalidomide got through at least for a few years. 

The other thing is that if there was deleterious effects from 5G then they would also impact on those that are pushing the technology. Why would they do that? But then again you could argue the same thing about climate change. We're f*cked aren't we?

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6 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

I honestly pay almost no attention to politics, but don't get the level of hate against Trump. Sure he's dirty, but all the politicians are dirty, so what's the deal?

I think it's because he is so obviously corrupt. You might argue that this is refreshing as there are pollies that are more clandestine with their corruption. But for me it actually makes it harder to accept. If you're going to be corrupt at least try to hide it.

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6 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

What I do know is Victoria (and Australia) is screwed right now by shutdowns, and will be screwed into the foreseeable future.

Speaking to a mate in Russia it seems pretty much everywhere is screwed right now, just in its own ways. RUB is dropping against AUD and other currencies. I'd buy a cheap place there and bug out except for the fact I've got kids (and can't move with them). I saw Thai protests against the monarchy in the news. Seems like everything is tearing at the seams right now.

Not sure where I'll be at in six weeks as my contract is up and no word about extensions.Job market is beyond dead. Cash flow is king right now. Everywhere you look it is a horror story. FFS, even a curfew now, never been done before as far as I understand.The time for a hard lockdown was six months ago, the horse has bolted.

The virus is such a minimal concern to me in comparison (and I have elderly family members).

This is definitely a black swan event! I'm feeling for Victorians at the moment. But on the bright side - house prices are holding up. :mellow:

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1 hour ago, staringclown said:

It was a bit of a worry when Ginsberg went into hospital. I'm hoping she can hang in until January. I'm not sure about Roberts being liberal leaning. He seems to be quite pedantic in terms of legal process. The result is kinda the same I suppose so that's a good thing. 

Can they reverse the Kavanaugh appointment? I thought they were there for life?

They can be impeached obviously (that is kind of the default US law solution) but that is ridiculously hard to do. Only one has ever been done in like that.

But there is a paper which I can't find. Wait found it:

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5053&context=ylj

It is pretty old but seems to have reasonable support and the authors have decent reputation.

The thrust of the argument is the "good behaviour" clause which lowers the bar for removal quite significantly. Not quite down to parking ticket level but close. Certainly it would allow removal for credible (but not convicted) sexual harassment charges.

The precedents cited are fairly strong indicators of the intended meaning of the language and the correlations with state level wording add to the likelihood that it is a correct reading.

Obviously the question is would the court allow one of their own to be removed. Instinctively I would say no. But roberts is, as you say, being quite pedantic about things and seems to be doing it maybe not out of spite but in a reactive manner to me anyway.

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7 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

I honestly pay almost no attention to politics, but don't get the level of hate against Trump. Sure he's dirty, but all the politicians are dirty, so what's the deal?

Partly it is just the acceleration of the 2 party system making "everything must be political" and Trump being effectively the end result of that.

Partly it is the repudiation of everything America has at least paid lip service to. Ukraine was not great (under Obama) and the drones did not make things awesome either (Bush, Obama and Trump) but they were at least not breaking deals with Allies. Syria on the other hand was undermining both the tacit Israeli alliance and the literal NATO alliance.

Partly it is also the brazen corruption (as SC pointed out). Trying to hold up unemployment support during a pandemic to ensure that the FBI building can't be turned into a hotel which would compete with his own as a current example. As someone looking down the barrel of unemployment I am sure you would find it distasteful if Scomo held up your money to ensure his hawaaii holidays would be pad for or similar.

Partly it is the "I am a disruptor" identity which encourages idiotic conspiracy theories which endanger lives (bleach anyone?) dispute science (hydroxychloroquine?) and bypass things which society has developed over time to safeguard itself (accelerated vaccine release for political purposes?). The disruptor also means a lot of people with experience are quitting, getting fired leaving gaping holes in the administration which are required to run the country properly. Small government can be a goal but you need a plan, absent government is not what anyone wants. It doesn't achieve the goals of small government or the actions of existing government.

Partly it is the lying and incompetence. "I am deal maker" - makes no deals, new NAFTA; same as the old but -I- made it doesn't stand up. If you make promises and fail on all of them eventually people get annoyed.

In short, if you pay almost no attention to politics I would strongly suggest you improve your bullsh*t filter. At the moment it looks like you are swallowing enough and falling into the target demographic of the current propaganda and they -are- coming for you. Fact checking is hard and boring, I would suggest deliberately opening articles on your newsfeed which are from the antithesis of what you actually believe. It f*cks the algorithms up and makes you a harder target.

I have a bookmark block of some UK tabloids, fox news, CCN, the guardian, Australian ABC, SMH, breitbart, some specific city news from places I have been, and a couple of extreme left and right blogs. Once every day or two I open all and click the top article then close them (unless there is actually something of interest). That generates enough cookies to keep my news feed reasonably eclectic.

 

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Oh crap I forgot to mention that his campaign started using symbols from the nazi extermination camp labelling system (red triangle for polish resistance by the nazis, red triangle for BLM protestors by trump campaign). That pissed an awful lot of people off, especially the military.

And of course trying too remove state rights (which is a huge repulblican platform) consistently is pissing people off too (mail in voting, school openings etc are all state decided things and he is threatening executive orders to override the states and to withhold funding.

Oh yeah and firing a navy captain for trying to get help for the covid people on his boat pissed off the military as well.

Bugger yeah trying to blame the military for using chemical weapons on Americans for a photo opportunity pissed off the military as well.

Bah and today the leak that the intelligence community is surveilling US veterans in an attempt to label them domestic terrorists and therefore allow even wider spying on them is probably going to piss the military off.

I mean the bone spurs draft dodging and hating on several of the US military heroes, notably McCain, didn't him off to a good start with the military but he seems to be trying real hard to ensure that if he is ejected from the whitehouse forcefully by the military they don't do it gently.

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