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staringclown

Seems it's arrived

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The protests are a genuine conundrum. The needs of the many versus the needs of the few type argument. 

In the midst on a pandemic you are faced with a decision to protest against a clear murder. It's been happening for centuries - but for the first time there's video evidence. Recorded on video. Irrefutable evidence.

You are massively angry. You protest and spread the lurgy and kill more people than you save via police brutality for X period of time. Have you won?

I'm arguing yes - because long term you change the system you save lives - short term you are an arsehole.

Thoughts?

 

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I'd argue yes it is worth protesting as well.

I think even excluding the deaths aspect a change to the way that policing is being done is probably a good thing.

The value for money proposition seems to be getting lost as politicians have consistently "solved" issues e.g. mental health by making it the polices responsibility. I'd argue it is not something they are trained for and shouldn't be their job.

Seeing:

  • Bad tactics used by the police (horses at rowdy protests just leads to dead horses, cable st in the 30's showed that)
  • The inappropriate choice of using the police to work "protests -against- the police" (nah that will never lead to confrontational people)
  • Almost wilful ignorance of social media (yeah tear gas journalists, children etc I'm sure that will stop the protestors)
  • etc etc

Makes me wonder how much the people making these decisions get paid and who does the job review. Something has gone awry I'd guess. The LA sheriffs department (not their only law enforcement agency) costs about $1000 per head of population p.a. as far as I can tell. This does not sound like a good value proposition.

The knock on effect of having what looks like an above the law group of people is bad for societies. Having some 15% of your population unwilling to engage with the police doesn't seem likely to make things better.

So the manslaughter video, the cooped up people etc. It's not likely the same opportunity will come along to make decent changes.

That said the dip in this chart does seem pretty close to about 5 days after the protests got going which is not a great sign.

This weekend Trump is having a 20K people convention in a town which is recording all time new cases high (not "since march highs" - all time highs), inside and preponderantly old poor people.

I don't see the chart getting better.

So I support the protests but I won't be going.

US Cases.png

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On 17/06/2020 at 9:43 PM, tor said:

I'd argue yes it is worth protesting as well.

I think even excluding the deaths aspect a change to the way that policing is being done is probably a good thing.

The value for money proposition seems to be getting lost as politicians have consistently "solved" issues e.g. mental health by making it the polices responsibility. I'd argue it is not something they are trained for and shouldn't be their job.

Seeing:

  • Bad tactics used by the police (horses at rowdy protests just leads to dead horses, cable st in the 30's showed that)
  • The inappropriate choice of using the police to work "protests -against- the police" (nah that will never lead to confrontational people)
  • Almost wilful ignorance of social media (yeah tear gas journalists, children etc I'm sure that will stop the protestors)
  • etc etc

Makes me wonder how much the people making these decisions get paid and who does the job review. Something has gone awry I'd guess. The LA sheriffs department (not their only law enforcement agency) costs about $1000 per head of population p.a. as far as I can tell. This does not sound like a good value proposition.

The knock on effect of having what looks like an above the law group of people is bad for societies. Having some 15% of your population unwilling to engage with the police doesn't seem likely to make things better.

So the manslaughter video, the cooped up people etc. It's not likely the same opportunity will come along to make decent changes.

That said the dip in this chart does seem pretty close to about 5 days after the protests got going which is not a great sign.

This weekend Trump is having a 20K people convention in a town which is recording all time new cases high (not "since march highs" - all time highs), inside and preponderantly old poor people.

I don't see the chart getting better.

So I support the protests but I won't be going.

US Cases.png

Yeah - I didn't go to the protests either. My sense of self preservation is far too keen (AKA I'm a coward :-)

By God, that rally of Trumps in Tulsa was hilarious though. I'm not the only coward by the looks. I was waiting for the Trump twitter meltdown. It hasn't arrived - yet.

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My Current Theory to keep me Happy (optimism is fun):

1. Buy more beer.

-or-   [1]

  • The escalating new cases pop the death rates something fierce in the US in about 3 weeks, say mid July, about as unarguable as the past 3 days of new cases in the US, maybe a bit more. There are still a few people saying it is increased testing causing the biggly numbers but not many compared to last week.
  • Sweden and the US weekly death rate percentage changes diverge and the US public realise their health system is f*cked (Sweden and the US have had almost identical weekly death rate percent increase/decrease since day 1). Sweden celebrates, no one in Europe will let them visit anyway. I mean, they're Swedish!
  • 7 weeks from now, say first week of August, the US public realises that the most rushed and least tested vaccine in history will still not be here for another 3 months minimum and no one actually wants to be the guinea pig for that.
  • All countries with active cases go into actual proper quarantine mode. This time with planning of "who to spend lockdown with", people that can cook will be popular flatmates.
  • Stock market dies. Housing market dies. ISP's make bank.
  • Lack of insurance, unemployment etc causes sh*t tons of havoc to the US public.
  • Trump does something so retarded that even using nazi holocaust insignia in 88 ads will seem sane (not kidding he did this last week! I mean f*ck Me!)
  • Biden wins in November by more than 10% probably with a Black female VP.
    • Trump goes to prison not to a new TV network
  • After 4 months of actual quarantine every house has learned to cook. Supermarkets etc have learned how to keep us alive etc. Even 20yr old me would have gotten sick of pizza after 3 months of fake lockdown and 4 of real. Netflix etc still haven't figured out how to deliver a better service than basic piracy provides. Supply chain has adjusted and we all eat like some kind of "eat local" hippies except the food tastes better than that hippy crap. Artificial meat companies make bank as the on/off switch is revealed to be useful compared to actual cows for a weird supply chain.
  • 90% of the world spends winter in proper quarantine and it's not actually that bad
    • Don't need a car, thats 30K a year saved
    • Don't need to commute, that's a 20% reduction in working hrs
    • etc
  • Consumption reduces, waste reduces, only the seriously rich and seriously poor are having a sh*tty life.
  • Biden decides he wants to leave a serious legacy, not just be "That Black guys VP that beat the worst president in history" plus the seriously poor are looking like getting a wee bit uppity.
    • New health system
    • New social welfare system (UBI? Maybe)
    • Scientists / Specialists are rolled out constantly for news, speeches etc, people trust them.
    • Bernie's head explodes
  • In March someone mentions that global warming is still thing.
  • We believe them.
  • We fix it.
  • Oddly enough no one is left that claims to have ever denied covid or climate change or neo nazis.

Yay World.

Oh and somewhere along the lines 3M makes an absolute sh*t ton of money when people decide that wearing masks is not a political statement.

[1] Let's face it, this is an "and" scenario. Beer always makes me happy.

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I think the test of policy is, "where would you prefer to be?" I hope to escape the second half of the year but not banking on it. Kinda hangs on how fast the RF opens its borders... which doesn't seem to be before September.

Working from home, I like the no commuting aspect. I walk to school with the kids then start work at 9am. It feels humane, especially for them. Two hours extra a day is a blessing... plus working from home is fine regardless where home is, so if I can take advantage of that I'll be very happy.

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FWIW I think Trump will win the election, if anything because Biden is senile and I cannot imagine how coherent he will be in 3-4 months. If Biden wins then it's the official start to WW3. There's enough conflict in the world as it is right now and I think the military-industry complex will be ramping up sales.

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On 6/24/2020 at 9:55 PM, Mr Medved said:

FWIW I think Trump will win the election, if anything because Biden is senile and I cannot imagine how coherent he will be in 3-4 months. If Biden wins then it's the official start to WW3. There's enough conflict in the world as it is right now and I think the military-industry complex will be ramping up sales.

heh when they are both mid 70's I can't see why you'd think one was senile and the other wasn't.

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On 24/06/2020 at 9:55 PM, Mr Medved said:

FWIW I think Trump will win the election, if anything because Biden is senile and I cannot imagine how coherent he will be in 3-4 months. If Biden wins then it's the official start to WW3. There's enough conflict in the world as it is right now and I think the military-industry complex will be ramping up sales.

That's a bold call Mr M. I disagree though Trump was an unknown quantity with independent voters last time. This time he is loved by his base. But only his base. It is not enough to get him over the line. I know the polls were wrong last time, but this time even his fellow Republicans say he can't win if he doesn't change course. I don't believe he's capable of changing course.

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3 hours ago, staringclown said:

That's a bold call Mr M. I disagree though Trump was an unknown quantity with independent voters last time. This time he is loved by his base. But only his base. It is not enough to get him over the line. I know the polls were wrong last time, but this time even his fellow Republicans say he can't win if he doesn't change course. I don't believe he's capable of changing course.

Everyone says the polls were wrong last time but largely they weren't. They were way wrong a few months out but the ones I followed definitely indicated it was getting close during the leadup. I admit at the time when they were saying "hey this is close enough to be within bounds of error" I assumed those polls were wrong and watching the colours flip while waiting for a flight reminded me of my own biases quite strongly.

Not sure if you guys are getting the news showing that trump seems to have acknowledged that their own internal polling is showing him in trouble.

Seems to me he has given up on trying to piss off large swathes of the electorate in one go and has now adopted a tailored response where he pisses people of in smaller groups and this seems to be working. Covid response - piss off educated people, protest - piss off young and minorities, the new "russia paying bounties for US deaths" thing looks like it could be a good screw you to the military.

And if the recent SCOTUS decisions are a guide I think his handling of separation of powers has pissed the judiciary off. 3 decisions in a row? I think Roberts is just voting liberal to remind everyone they have an equal part of the power (he voted the exact opposite on the exact same law 4 yrs back). I think the tax returns decision comes this week or next... trump seems to really not want them made public and he seems to take personal infringements more seriously than party politics so it could be time for a spectacular explosion.

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On 6/25/2020 at 10:03 PM, tor said:

heh when they are both mid 70's I can't see why you'd think one was senile and the other wasn't.

At least Trump can tell his mother from his daughter. 

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Trump doesn't need a majority to win, just the swing states. I think he can blame a lot of problems based on Democrat-led states. Biden was such a shocking selection, I can understand why because he could be resembling a vegetable in 12 months so will be just a front man as always intended.

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7 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Trump doesn't need a majority to win, just the swing states. I think he can blame a lot of problems based on Democrat-led states. Biden was such a shocking selection, I can understand why because he could be resembling a vegetable in 12 months so will be just a front man as always intended.

Yeah but all the current polling is showing him losing them and Texas just turned on him by mandating face masks. Tulsa has now put Herman Cain in the hospital.

The annualised covid deaths for the US (even just using the current probably low numbers if you consider excess deaths) is within spitting distance of being the number one killer for the year.

He went on tv again yesterday saying "it'll magically go away, he hopes" as recorded cases jumped 10% from the previous days all time record largely lead by swing/red states.

The week on week death rate decoupled from Sweden last week, could be a blip, seems unlikely as it is 3 weeks after the US bounce. At the same time as he tried again to remove obamacare. Oklahoma just voted to -increase- medicaid.

Unemployment is running out; second shutdowns have started in Florida & Texas. Framing that as a Democrat thing would be hard.

The GOP is saying "yeah we'll do another financial aid package but it won't be as big".

The proposed investigating committee for the Russia bounty money looks to be considering using the Bhengazi precedent to get hold of the daily briefings and I forgot how strongly Americans feel about their troops.

Could voter sentiment swing around? sure. It doesn't seem likely to me. I'd say Trump dropping out completely seems about as likely. If I could find a place where I could make a bet on Trump dropping out I'd seriously consider it.

 

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I don't follow politics much so will have to trust your judgement. :)

But Biden will simply be propped up as the facade to the military-industry complex doing what they want.

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Given the choice of ongoing Trumpian ineffectiveness or a return to the "military-industry complex" nightmare of 5 years ago I think I know what many people would like :)

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None of the above. :D

Joe Rogan should run as an independent, he'd go close to winning and would be better than either candidate.

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On 30/06/2020 at 10:03 PM, tor said:

Everyone says the polls were wrong last time but largely they weren't. They were way wrong a few months out but the ones I followed definitely indicated it was getting close during the leadup. I admit at the time when they were saying "hey this is close enough to be within bounds of error" I assumed those polls were wrong and watching the colours flip while waiting for a flight reminded me of my own biases quite strongly.

Not sure if you guys are getting the news showing that trump seems to have acknowledged that their own internal polling is showing him in trouble.

Seems to me he has given up on trying to piss off large swathes of the electorate in one go and has now adopted a tailored response where he pisses people of in smaller groups and this seems to be working. Covid response - piss off educated people, protest - piss off young and minorities, the new "russia paying bounties for US deaths" thing looks like it could be a good screw you to the military.

And if the recent SCOTUS decisions are a guide I think his handling of separation of powers has pissed the judiciary off. 3 decisions in a row? I think Roberts is just voting liberal to remind everyone they have an equal part of the power (he voted the exact opposite on the exact same law 4 yrs back). I think the tax returns decision comes this week or next... trump seems to really not want them made public and he seems to take personal infringements more seriously than party politics so it could be time for a spectacular explosion.

Roberts seems unhappy with the process rather than the principal. My understanding is once you are a Supreme Court judge no one can touch you. You're there for life. Hopefully, even the conservative ones are keen on upholding the Constitution. It doesn't seem to apply for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh yet.

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On 03/07/2020 at 5:58 PM, Mr Medved said:

Trump doesn't need a majority to win, just the swing states. I think he can blame a lot of problems based on Democrat-led states. Biden was such a shocking selection, I can understand why because he could be resembling a vegetable in 12 months so will be just a front man as always intended.

The lurgy is now affecting the deep red and swing states. Even Arizona is in play.

Average of all polls in swing states

Bookies have Biden @ 1.70 and Trump @ 2.10. Not bad odds for some Trump action...

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On 04/07/2020 at 1:26 AM, tor said:

Yeah but all the current polling is showing him losing them and Texas just turned on him by mandating face masks. Tulsa has now put Herman Cain in the hospital.

The annualised covid deaths for the US (even just using the current probably low numbers if you consider excess deaths) is within spitting distance of being the number one killer for the year.

He went on tv again yesterday saying "it'll magically go away, he hopes" as recorded cases jumped 10% from the previous days all time record largely lead by swing/red states.

The week on week death rate decoupled from Sweden last week, could be a blip, seems unlikely as it is 3 weeks after the US bounce. At the same time as he tried again to remove obamacare. Oklahoma just voted to -increase- medicaid.

Unemployment is running out; second shutdowns have started in Florida & Texas. Framing that as a Democrat thing would be hard.

The GOP is saying "yeah we'll do another financial aid package but it won't be as big".

The proposed investigating committee for the Russia bounty money looks to be considering using the Bhengazi precedent to get hold of the daily briefings and I forgot how strongly Americans feel about their troops.

Could voter sentiment swing around? sure. It doesn't seem likely to me. I'd say Trump dropping out completely seems about as likely. If I could find a place where I could make a bet on Trump dropping out I'd seriously consider it.

 

"99% of cases are harmless". Good lord. 

He's not for turning. If his reelection strategy actually works - the books will need to be rewritten.

I've read some articles about him dropping out rather than contesting an election that he knows he's going to lose. You think well that would be letting down his base. Then you think again and come to the conclusion that he wouldn't be the least bit concerned about letting down his base. They swallow every word he says. If he said he dropped out because it was rigged they would believe him. If he does contest it - will he concede gracefully if he loses? No he won't.

Betting on a Trump resignation :)

Gah! That link was during impeachment proceedings. You can bet on whether he'll be kicked off twitter by 2020.

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On 6/16/2020 at 9:35 PM, tor said:

Maybe a few more weeks of closed borders isn't a crazy idea.

Doing my weekly numbers and it looks like it mightn't have been a crazy idea to have stayed closed for a few more weeks (assuming decent testing, tracing etc).

We have tickets to get home to Poland on the 25th. The current closure of the US/Canada border is set to expire on the 21st. Really hoping they keep it closed a few more days. They are already turning away about 2500 Americans per month at the border. Poxy Southerners :)

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On 7/4/2020 at 1:26 AM, tor said:

I'd say Trump dropping out completely seems about as likely.

If he is confident he can't win then that's what he will do. Bone spurs playing up again? When though?

 

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Apparently labor day has been chosen by the rest of the GOP as the day that they are free to do what they want if Trump hasn't turned his numbers around.

I don't know if this is deliberately ironic or if americans have just lost all awareness of what labor day is celebrating.

I do know that if his numbers are still in the toilet and some of the GOP decide to cut the strings trump will lose his mind. Especially if enough of them do and survive what he considers to be his almighty wrath and fury.

So I figure early October. That way he f*cks the parties preparation for the election in revenge as well which seems in keeping with his personality. If he wants his TV station he is going to have to avoid being labelled Loooooser and saying "I didn't lose" and "the republicans did when -I- left" would be one way of doing it.

I saw a weird arse analysis of some recent polling today. Trump is down in all demographics (even uneducated white males and old white males). But his approval in republicans has risen. This was presented as a good thing for Trump.

Mathematically I can only think of two ways this could happen.

1. In each and every demographic the independents or democrats changed their minds and -began- to dislike trump at a rate high enough to cancel out the republican approval increase by the republicans in that demographic.

2. Lots of republicans have changed their minds and are no longer claiming to be republicans. Those remaining have a higher percentage in support of trump.

The first seems exceedingly unlikely to me, it's a lot of coincidences. The second seems more likely to me and I couldn't understand why the analyst didn't even consider this possibility. Then I remember talking to Americans and how -they- -do- -not- change party. I think this may be starting to happen and the pollsters are going to miss it for a while. If that happens then we are seriously looking at a 60/40 election which is not going to work for the only legal "stay in power" trick I have heard of.

 

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I think most Americans are pissed off. The election campaign will all be about blaming the other side... which is touched on in this video.

 

 

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There's a whole bunch of republican groups that don't support the orange one. Lincoln project for one. A simpler answer is that I'm not sure I the sample of 'republicans'. Do they publish who they regard as republicans? How do they pick them? If you asked me to create a result from a survey that supports the conclusion that you wanted to see - and you didn't care about science then I could likely produce the result you wanted.

A scientific survey publishes the assumptions/parameters - and the statistical error etc.

The good news is the SCOTUS ruled that he is not above the law. The bad news is that he gets to keep hiding his tax returns. Still there may be leaks. It's good to see him squirm.

 

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I believe the surveys usually say "self identified republicans".

Another poll came out showing a loss in republican approval which matched the rest of the results better. I was just surprised at the jumping through hoops analysis of the previous one.

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I think the psychology revolves around keeping people on the 'winning' side. If you are going full delusional 'we're beating the virus' then pump out some polls claiming the people agree. It's just beginning.

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