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staringclown

Seems it's arrived

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Did he do it in his usual bored monotone? He's usually pissed off when he can't unload on some poor bastard.

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Yeah pretty much. Then ran home to sh*ttweet about how "Biden looked weak wearing a mask. And isn't it weird that Biden wears a mask in public but not in his basement".

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Prediction: Queue the revisionists that knew way back when that the country should never have gone into lockdown. That the damage to the economy is due to a lefty conspiracy to achieve one world government. It's time to free the country! They are coming very soon. Once they have opened their own bunkers and ensured their own safety - they will be letting you know what's what.

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Not yet. Today's update in strategy was to say that it doesn't even kill as many people being fat does.

Assuming they mean heart related death (US ~650K p.a.) that means they bloody well skipped cancer (600K) and accidents (170K) as they worked up the list.

I think that might be because even the dimmest of them has a sense that 100K deaths in 3 months (currently under counted by about 50% I'd guess based on excess death stats for the leading US states) is actually starting to get close to threatening that number.

One of my US'ian friends did point out it was amusing that of all the people to start breaking quarantine it was the preppers. The exact scenario they have been planning for and spending their time and money on and they can't stay inside for a couple of weeks. heh.

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The poor are out spending their stimulus job keeper and seeker payments, et al. A lot of working poor and welfare recipients have had a large jump in income.

I had to go to a large shopping Centre in a low so area at 3.30pm yesterday and 9am today. It was like xmas yesterday and at 9 this morning it looked like a busy saturday. 

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9 hours ago, tor said:

Not yet. Today's update in strategy was to say that it doesn't even kill as many people being fat does.

Assuming they mean heart related death (US ~650K p.a.) that means they bloody well skipped cancer (600K) and accidents (170K) as they worked up the list.

I think that might be because even the dimmest of them has a sense that 100K deaths in 3 months (currently under counted by about 50% I'd guess based on excess death stats for the leading US states) is actually starting to get close to threatening that number.

One of my US'ian friends did point out it was amusing that of all the people to start breaking quarantine it was the preppers. The exact scenario they have been planning for and spending their time and money on and they can't stay inside for a couple of weeks. heh.

I wonder if anyone has pointed out that being fat isn't contagious. Let alone that it seems to be a merkin' birth right.

The bit about the preppers is hilarious. Contrarians no doubt. :)

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8 hours ago, zaph said:

The poor are out spending their stimulus job keeper and seeker payments, et al. A lot of working poor and welfare recipients have had a large jump in income.

I had to go to a large shopping Centre in a low so area at 3.30pm yesterday and 9am today. It was like xmas yesterday and at 9 this morning it looked like a busy saturday. 

It does make you question how bad the forecasted economic downturn will actually be? The debt has been ratcheted up for sure - but given the 60 billion underspend maybe it's a V rather than a U after all? If the rally in banks shares this week is indicative then maybe.

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Not sure what the sentiment is in Australia but here we are thinking of starting to train again; no contact, no yelling, all in masks, a small group (none of whom are really targets) etc. Even so only 20% of the club are even considering it.

The rest certainly aren't going out in public, restaurants etc.

You can throw all the money in the world at a problem but if the customers actually believe things are serious they ain't spending.

Montreal has kind of f*cked up so far (mostly for the old) and I think the risks are actually in most peoples minds. Restaurants etc are probably screwed.

Australia I doubt any of you guys even consciously know a person that has had the virus and the media seems fairly self congratulatory so I guess so long as it stays away you might be fine as there is no consumer fear yet.

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2 hours ago, tor said:

Not sure what the sentiment is in Australia but here we are thinking of starting to train again; no contact, no yelling, all in masks, a small group (none of whom are really targets) etc. Even so only 20% of the club are even considering it.

In Brisbane I would have long ago. Not sure what the current rules are though.

Quote

 

The rest certainly aren't going out in public, restaurants etc.

You can throw all the money in the world at a problem but if the customers actually believe things are serious they ain't spending.

Montreal has kind of f*cked up so far (mostly for the old) and I think the risks are actually in most peoples minds. Restaurants etc are probably screwed.

 

The restaurants and pubs here are packed to the now permitted 10 people.

 

 

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14 hours ago, staringclown said:

It does make you question how bad the forecasted economic downturn will actually be? The debt has been ratcheted up for sure - but given the 60 billion underspend maybe it's a V rather than a U after all? If the rally in banks shares this week is indicative then maybe.

The suburban economy will return to normal once pubs, casinos and pokies open. Tourism will remain in trouble. It's a real intersection between border regulations and the survival of big tourism in Australia. 

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/bean-counters-believe-nation-can-dodge-depression-but-no-sharp-rebound-20200529-p54xq6.html#comments

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On 29/05/2020 at 7:37 PM, staringclown said:

It does make you question how bad the forecasted economic downturn will actually be? The debt has been ratcheted up for sure - but given the 60 billion underspend maybe it's a V rather than a U after all? If the rally in banks shares this week is indicative then maybe.

The economy in Australia has been hammered, there's perhaps a lag but it's bad. Construction industry will drop off substantially later in the year. Travel and tourism is dead. If borders don't open the "education sector" will be whacked. Hospitality and entertainment sectors will have venues permanently closed. China may impose more tariffs. Then there's the debt, both public and private. Where's the debt growth coming from to keep the Aussie dream alive?

Sentiment is the key, we'll need to pull out the Reject the Recession dancers again. But I don't see companies rushing to hire, and from my experience in the first three months of the year is that opportunities evaporated like mist and may not pop up again.

Although I've been hanging out for mega bargains and they haven't come yet. Maybe EOFY will be the time.

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On 30/05/2020 at 7:00 AM, tor said:

Not sure what the sentiment is in Australia but here we are thinking of starting to train again; no contact, no yelling, all in masks, a small group (none of whom are really targets) etc. Even so only 20% of the club are even considering it.

The rest certainly aren't going out in public, restaurants etc.

You can throw all the money in the world at a problem but if the customers actually believe things are serious they ain't spending.

Montreal has kind of f*cked up so far (mostly for the old) and I think the risks are actually in most peoples minds. Restaurants etc are probably screwed.

Australia I doubt any of you guys even consciously know a person that has had the virus and the media seems fairly self congratulatory so I guess so long as it stays away you might be fine as there is no consumer fear yet.

Went to a pub in Canberra on Saturday night. 20 people per area was the law. We had 40. Social distancing was for other people. One fire lit inside and the other out. It was freezing so folks just gathered. Though fair enough this was pissed people. It's how I expect the laws will be respected at work. There's going to be the insistent that have to be at a meeting and violate the lift recommendations. Others who are just stupid. It's going to be a sh*t fight.

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Social distancing as practised is no more practical than Dianetics. Would you like an audit?

I respect the wishes (fear) of other people but have no personal concerns. I am livid there are no gigs and I can't travel. I will be applying for an exemption but have no idea if it will be granted.

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Yeah the riots here have pretty much finished the whole covid masks and distancing thing.

At least the protests here in Montreal maybe 90% of people had masks on and there were people with hand sanitiser wandering around (and things didn't get too silly afterwards).

We currently have a small humpback whale in the river here. We are roughly 750km from the sea.

Basically I have given up trying to make plans further away than "what is for dinner".

2020, just keeping us on our toes :)

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On 12.3.2020 at 9:33 PM, staringclown said:

Dow now in a bear market. Fear outweighing greed. Leveraged economy now roosting chickens. Dudes fighting over sh*t in the shops.

After 12 years of waiting. After the biggest short of them all. What's everybody buying?

I've come in far too early with banks. Made some small gambits and lost. My plan is to keep buying on the way down as it ever was. 

Anyone have a different strategy?

Any thoughts on where the bottom is?

Any thoughts on the property market?

Is this a 'U' or a 'V'?

The irony is that when this forum finally ran down and the last bear gave up, the black swan appeared. :huh:

You may have been right bears, but timing is everything.

Now is your time.

 

I agree on shorting australian banks! As a hedge. While owning ecommerce, egaming, online advertising companies

I dont agree that the last bear has given up. In january i warned with many posts on the "armstrongs writings" about a crash and i sold all my stocks which was 50% of my portfolio and went to cash.

Me, Marty and most macro guys i watched, agree, this isnt over yet as many will go bankrubt and many will stay unemployed and tax income will fall so taxes get raised.

Also ALL young people i talk to in europe think its the fault of the rich and we need to take their money and save the environment. And CEOs are only there to steal money. And politicians are representatives of god and their only job is to handout money which they steal from the rich. So.....nothing will be fixed in europe ever.

England is tipping one toe into weimar republic zimbabwe hyperinflation printing, so clearly thats the only way out they see. The problem is, they can provide liquidity to people but NOT PROFITS!

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On 04/06/2020 at 8:04 PM, Swaize said:

I agree on shorting australian banks! As a hedge. While owning ecommerce, egaming, online advertising companies

I dont agree that the last bear has given up. In january i warned with many posts on the "armstrongs writings" about a crash and i sold all my stocks which was 50% of my portfolio and went to cash.

Me, Marty and most macro guys i watched, agree, this isnt over yet as many will go bankrubt and many will stay unemployed and tax income will fall so taxes get raised.

Also ALL young people i talk to in europe think its the fault of the rich and we need to take their money and save the environment. And CEOs are only there to steal money. And politicians are representatives of god and their only job is to handout money which they steal from the rich. So.....nothing will be fixed in europe ever.

England is tipping one toe into weimar republic zimbabwe hyperinflation printing, so clearly thats the only way out they see. The problem is, they can provide liquidity to people but NOT PROFITS!

Thanks for the reply Swaize. I don't think I was entirely clear in my initial post RE Aussie banks though. I actually went long back in March when they started tanking. I went a little bit early but ended up with a fair spread across the period. They're currently up ~20% on what I paid.

I don't know if it will last - bad debts have been factored in to some extent but it is still a big unknown how many will default. Defaults have been kicked down the road by government wage subsidies. We'll start to see in September how bad it will be. Also what impact is felt from Europe and the states. 

The expectation was also that whenever housing looks in trouble here the government rides to the rescue. Predictably, they have done exactly that to the tune of ~AUD750M. To me the scheme is not that well targeted and I think they will extend it eventually.

I think a bigger concern will be our relationship with China. They are punishing us for speaking up about an enquiry into the virus. It doesn't look likely they can source iron ore anywhere else - Brazil has a massive dose of the dreaded lurgy. Other commodities might suffer until we've learned our lesson. :)

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On 01/06/2020 at 10:11 PM, tor said:

Yeah the riots here have pretty much finished the whole covid masks and distancing thing.

At least the protests here in Montreal maybe 90% of people had masks on and there were people with hand sanitiser wandering around (and things didn't get too silly afterwards).

We currently have a small humpback whale in the river here. We are roughly 750km from the sea.

Basically I have given up trying to make plans further away than "what is for dinner".

2020, just keeping us on our toes :)

It's hard to get a grasp on how much opposition the riots are fomenting with the swinging voters from here. I did enjoy Trudeau's minutes silence. 

Polls seem to indicate that Trump is going to lose - but are the votes in the right states for the electoral college numbers? Plus Trump is going to pull out all of the stops - he won't go easily. The only good sign is the military seem to be distancing themselves from him.

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On 01/06/2020 at 7:06 PM, Mr Medved said:

Social distancing as practised is no more practical than Dianetics. Would you like an audit?

I respect the wishes (fear) of other people but have no personal concerns. I am livid there are no gigs and I can't travel. I will be applying for an exemption but have no idea if it will be granted.

No mosh pits for a while - which spoils the atmosphere at most gigs. NZ (when they let us in) have no restrictions now so you may be able to visit for their summer festivals. :)

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On 07/05/2020 at 10:13 PM, tor said:

You wait til the US numbers in 3 or 4 weeks come in.

They have consistently had news articles on Mondays saying "Yesterday was the lowest numbers in a week! it's over!" Every week for the past month. Oddly every Monday or Tuesday following the article is then a top 5 day for deaths and there are few articles about that. (Weekends are low reporting days for most countries).

The interpretation of "the second wave could be awful" warnings is generally "oh so the first wave is over".

Yesterday for example was 2500 deaths in the US (fifth highest so far). The NY/NJ percentage of deaths is dropping so all the other states are picking up their game to fill the void. During lockdown.

Last week the daily average for the US was about 1900. I think that is about 10 times a bad flu season. During lockdown.

So 39 states are starting their open this week.

If sentiment is bad now I think it might get worse. Without a vaccine that sentiment might spread to other countries leadership as well. Who wants to be the one that says reopen after it has been catastrophic for other countries. On the bright side the politicians might get so nervous that they start letting the specialists make the decision.

(Or of course the re opening turns out to be awesome proving American Rights overrule everything).

 

The numbers are starting to come in.

Florida and Texas report record high daily cases

 

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On 09/06/2020 at 4:40 PM, staringclown said:

Thanks for the reply Swaize. I don't think I was entirely clear in my initial post RE Aussie banks though. I actually went long back in March when they started tanking. I went a little bit early but ended up with a fair spread across the period. They're currently up ~20% on what I paid.

I don't know if it will last - bad debts have been factored in to some extent but it is still a big unknown how many will default. Defaults have been kicked down the road by government wage subsidies. We'll start to see in September how bad it will be. Also what impact is felt from Europe and the states. 

The expectation was also that whenever housing looks in trouble here the government rides to the rescue. Predictably, they have done exactly that to the tune of ~AUD750M. To me the scheme is not that well targeted and I think they will extend it eventually.

I think a bigger concern will be our relationship with China. They are punishing us for speaking up about an enquiry into the virus. It doesn't look likely they can source iron ore anywhere else - Brazil has a massive dose of the dreaded lurgy. Other commodities might suffer until we've learned our lesson. :)

Some reality hitting markets at last. Apparently the number of new trading accounts both here and in the US has gone through the roof. A bunch of newbs expecting to get rich quick. 
 

John Alexander wants to raid super to support high property prices. Saving doesn’t make sense anymore, we’ve hit the wall with credit - where can we get the next sugar hit?

Use super to offset mortgages': Liberal MP calls for housing changes

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14 hours ago, staringclown said:

The numbers are starting to come in.

Florida and Texas report record high daily cases

 

The sentiment basically seems to be "The virus must know we are bored of it now" around here and down south.

In The Plateau (students, immigrants, best restaurants, bars etc) on a weekday it looks pretty much like normal now, no masks, close contact queuing.

In the Student Ghetto (where we live) last night there were a decent number of people wandering about carrying fairly obvious "going to a party" stuff and a couple of late night parties within hearing range.

We were planning on waiting for the borders to open, watch what happens for a month or two then go home to Poland (which is not having great rate changes atm) but now we are thinking the next few weeks might change our opinion and we'll watch for a few days after the borders open while the process is sorted out then scamper away.

On the bright side the border with the yanks is staying closed til late July I think.

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On 13/06/2020 at 10:24 PM, tor said:

The sentiment basically seems to be "The virus must know we are bored of it now" around here and down south.

In The Plateau (students, immigrants, best restaurants, bars etc) on a weekday it looks pretty much like normal now, no masks, close contact queuing.

In the Student Ghetto (where we live) last night there were a decent number of people wandering about carrying fairly obvious "going to a party" stuff and a couple of late night parties within hearing range.

We were planning on waiting for the borders to open, watch what happens for a month or two then go home to Poland (which is not having great rate changes atm) but now we are thinking the next few weeks might change our opinion and we'll watch for a few days after the borders open while the process is sorted out then scamper away.

On the bright side the border with the yanks is staying closed til late July I think.

There's a lot of that attitude happening here as well. It's only human nature I suppose. I went into work last week for a meeting and it is difficult to maintain the distance and no-one is wearing masks here. Three guys hunched around a laptop is the way collaboration works.

Poland seems like a safer place to be than Canada. But you would have NZ privileges?

I'm in the group that can continue to work from home - hopefully on a permanent basis. If so, I might look at bailing from Canberra all together and moving to the coast. 

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It'd be a shame if, seemingly a few weeks from eradicating it, Australia went and embarked on a second wave. The kiwis have gone a little crazy the past few days :)

Yeah we could theoretically go to NZ but Ewa's mum is a bit sick and we'd like to get back there and help her out.

Once you get a taste for working from home in an environment geared up for it (rather than just locked in your apartment) you'll never go back. All the pundits saying "oh people will want to go back to work for the social aspect" seem to think that the reason most people make friends at work is because that is where the great people are...

Once you work from home with the freedom to mix in social groups of people you actually like and have things in common with the office seems like the worst place in the world.

And as for "talking in person is so much better than email/video conference etc" pffft mostly it is because people can lie to me in person then claim it never happened or people can't communicate or a bunch of reasons which all resolve down to "I should suffer because person X is an incomplete person".

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8 hours ago, tor said:

It'd be a shame if, seemingly a few weeks from eradicating it, Australia went and embarked on a second wave. 

The aim at the start was to 'flatten the curve'. Then Australia did such a good job public opinion changed to eradicate. Unless we keep our borders closed for years eradication is a futile goal.  

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That seems a fair enough view at the beginning. I doubt anyone realistically expected to do such a good job at it though. Eradication seems (from way over here) a possible scenario in the Aus numbers (although I don't really know how good the testing or tracing regimes are - or how realistic any of them are, I guess no one really knows yet).

If the testing regime is decent

-and the tracing is decent and works

-and the internal reservoir is killed off

You have a bunch of options few other countries have.

it seems likely the world as a whole is going to have to open up to some degree. That means there might be lots of ideas to watch and learn from, Europe opening internally this week, the US defacto opening a month back and NZ declaring itself clean (until some poms went and broke stuff) seem pretty likely to offer lots of info.

Maybe a few more weeks of closed borders isn't a crazy idea.

I do agree that open ended goals with no sense of achievement are pretty hard to get everyone to follow indefinitely. And certainly despite Swedens pretty crap numbers compared to next door almost identical countries no one actually knows if there plan isn't actually going to have been the best one.

I think that given this issue has such a reliance on public adherence it might have been a good one to have online voting used to declare the public desire. Good way to test online voting and get the kinks sorted out :)

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