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staringclown

Seems it's arrived

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Dow now in a bear market. Fear outweighing greed. Leveraged economy now roosting chickens. Dudes fighting over sh*t in the shops.

After 12 years of waiting. After the biggest short of them all. What's everybody buying?

I've come in far too early with banks. Made some small gambits and lost. My plan is to keep buying on the way down as it ever was. 

Anyone have a different strategy?

Any thoughts on where the bottom is?

Any thoughts on the property market?

Is this a 'U' or a 'V'?

The irony is that when this forum finally ran down and the last bear gave up, the black swan appeared. :huh:

You may have been right bears, but timing is everything.

Now is your time.

 

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What's everybody buying? Toilet paper stocks. :D

I'm still recovering from reverberations following divorce and a contracting desert, so not much buying.

If I did have money I'd be keeping a close eye on getting on the long side of oil prices. It may drop further but I think we'll see generational lows.

Food demand has dropped off, I was told exporters have had their orders drop by 25-50%. So we could see commodities drop further, but eventually it will need to go back up because people need to eat. So keep an eye on soft commodities.

The AUD is going to tank even more, so either get out or look to buy shares... but I think wait for 80+% drop from the peak. I remember Greece went down 90% before doubling in the following year. The Asian crisis there was a similar type of drop. Share markets usually don't go to zero, though some companies will go out of business.

Airliners will probably continue to be hammered, so you could look to buy into the state-backed ones when technicals point to the upside. Their financials are getting slaughtered but at some point global trade will resume and so will travel.

I'd stay away from anything illiquid - real estate fits that bill. A mate just sold his property, was on the market for ages. I just don't think it's a wise investment. There is the possibility that foreigners will be scared off and the elderly start dying from the virus, so demand has to drop. Where is credit going to bubble from? Can't see it.

@Swaize will have the inside running on all of this.

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I saw a woman at an indoor shopping centre with a face mask, hair net and umbrella. 

This morning I heard a woman yelling outside my local woolies that she going to smash that f##ing c##nts head in if he tries to limit what I can buy again. They should close the border with Logan. 

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Fortunately I was right royally spooked by the last meltdown over a decade ago so the cupboards are fully stocked. Unfortunately I couldn't fit my chest freezer in my current place, so may run low on meat unless I can stock up regularly. Same with bread but that's only for the kids.

The bigger problem I face is that I'm currently unemployed and waiting to be onboarded into a new role. Another place may offer me a contract, and another seemingly wants to hire me but is being held up by the Wuhan virus outbreak.

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Sorry? to hear about the divorce and unemployment.

I've lived through cyclones, earthquakes and volcanoes. Locals know that you need enough food (that doesn't require cooking) to last a couple of weeks and that electricity will be cut. But people unfamiliar with calamitous situations panic. We lived on the hopital grid so always got power back quickly. 

During one cyclone I saw two tourists fighting over the last leg of lamb at coles. Terrified that the restaurants would be closed. After some further questioning I determined they were going to cook the lamb with a hairdryer, carve it with a teaspoon and serve it in a coffee cup. Madness! 

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7 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Fortunately I was right royally spooked by the last meltdown over a decade ago so the cupboards are fully stocked. Unfortunately I couldn't fit my chest freezer in my current place, so may run low on meat unless I can stock up regularly. Same with bread but that's only for the kids.

The bigger problem I face is that I'm currently unemployed and waiting to be onboarded into a new role. Another place may offer me a contract, and another seemingly wants to hire me but is being held up by the Wuhan virus outbreak.

Sorry to hear about your recent challenges. Hope things will improve quickly for you.

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9 hours ago, AndersB said:

Sorry to hear about your recent challenges. Hope things will improve quickly for you.

It's bloody annoying timing. I have one position waiting for a police check to clear (not surprised if the AFP are busy right now and de-prioritising checks), another position I haven't heard back since my second round interview last week (assuming they're caught up with everything), and a third position the hiring manager wants to interview me but can't advertise the role because of the virus/panic. I could be picking from three offers, now everything is held up. A month earlier and no issues! There's another contracting opportunity or two that seem to have gone cold because of all the calamities.

I loaded up on USD in 2017-18 when it was around 0.75 AUD/USD, now it's around 0.58 and dropping like a stone. I started stacking XAU in 2009 when it was around 1100, now over 2500. So my defensive assets have held up well. I just need cash flow. I think a lot of people/businesses are going to be hit hard with the decline in the velocity of money.

Liquidity seems to be the key right now. If you can sit on the sidelines with cash there are going to be some amazing bargains... some falling knives too but great opportunities if you pick the right timing... maybe @Swaize has some Socrates updates for us. :)

How is everyone else responding? (other than stocking up on toilet papers, pasta and guns/ammo... haha)

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I suspect this thing is bigger than being reported. I now live in a townhouse, so if the 9 or so close townhouses turn their tv up or play slightly loud music i'm aware. 3 of those households are emitting hacking coughs. Guess what? 2 stop coughing during the day meaning they are going to work. The share TH of taxi drivers are continuing to work and potentially be very infectious. Perhaps they have all just taken up smoking!

The bank run will commence sometime next week.

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I've pulled most of the cash out of my Aussie bank accounts.

But oil looks to be a very nice play. What's the best way to get exposure? It could be down a while but it looks like it's going to hit generational lows.

InflatedAdjoil.png

If you haven't checked out the In the Interests of the People YouTube channel it's worth checking out.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzwmB2wn8Slp3hko2Gpj2iA

 

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Some of the govt initiative announced today are good. But for most detail is lacking. More will come to light.

So giving unemployed a survivable income, by doubling the dole is good. Waiting for the #@^ notations. But how will this help the economy if the govt shuts everything down?

$100k for small businesses to keep people employed. Sounds Ok until you read the find fine print. It's a rebate of income tax collected for employees. A lot of employers employee casual staff on limited hours, on min wage who pay no income tax. This one is a big spin

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It is very sad to see this nightmare scenario unfold.

However, I am now quite hopeful that things will turn around quickly. So now I'm an optimistic bull?

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Anders you may be wrong. I've heard the government is on the precipice of announcing a full lockdown (in Australia). May last six months.

I'm not happy at all. The government has directly cost me job opportunities and I'm out of work now, burning savings. I have friends whose companies have had to shut down. They are destroying the economy on something they cannot stop or control. 

"It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."

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Again, sorry to hear about your troubles Mr Medved. Everything does indeed look bleak and it is difficult to see how this situation is going to improve soon.

I think health authorities and government officials around the world know about the potential treatment for coronavirus patients with the medications that I have mentioned earlier. An indication of this is that the UK, India, and Hungary have banned the export of hydroxychloroquine. But supplies are short and it will take a month or two to ramp up supply to meet the needs of a pandemic.

That is why the governments are trying to buy time by reducing the rate of infection spreading. Also, ironically, they want to dampen the interest in people demanding their doctors to prescribe the drug as it will reduce availability for the serious cases in the meantime. Hence, we don't hear much about the promising results of treatments and the health authorities expressing themselves as reluctant and extremely cautious about it when confronted.

But the big risk is that you will kill big parts of the economy and large viable businesses/employers close down, never to reopen again. We have an extremely co-dependent just-in-time supply chain economy that can very easily be irreparably damaged, or take many years to recover. Worse, individual lives will be shattered, with people losing their houses (with 10-year bankruptcy effects or credit rating damage), can't pay their rents, and lose all their savings that may have taken years to build up.

If the governments are not careful, this event will cause a strong backlash in two ways. Both against the draconian measures, which can lead to riots and revolts. But also, this can be another generational divide. The young, who are relatively not badly affected by the virus, are the ones that will bear all of the burdens of the shut down economy, to protect the older generations that are already on pensions and government support. The mortgage-free boomers win again!

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I heard brothels have been ordered to close. I'm investing in blow up doll manufacturers and porn companies. 

 

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My parents are on day 10 of self isolation after an anti holiday and returning from os. Not a peep from Authorities. No one knocking on the door, or calling to ensure they are isolating or that they have enough food so they don't need to break quarantine. 

QLD are taking people to hotels for 14 days of isolation now. No more 'self' in isolation. 

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(I am not sure how much american news you guys get)

If you have seen the trump speeches whilst watching the market it has been hilarious in a dark way. Every time he goes off script and starts with his bullsh*t the market just collapsed. It was close enough to a real time thing the other week.

Given that the current US media spin is that "100 000 deaths will mean we did a good job" and there are only about 5k deaths so far in the US and a roughly expected 60-90 days to go we are going to see numbers that are truly mind boggling.

To reiterate. The US government is currently saying their "We Dun Super Good" scenario is about 3000 deaths per million in the US. Italy is currently at 218. Australia is currently 0.9 per million.

So I figure Berkshire is the place to go if you want US exposure. They have cash out the wazoo and are famous for waiting for down markets to buy big arse chunks of stuff. The head two guys are old and going to die soon ish but they seem to have a decent succession plan in place as far as I can tell.

I am planning to wait for the next US market drop and then chuck 250K at Berkshire give or take for an A.

I don't think the markets in the US have reacted to the extended shutdown yet. The indexes are all about the same as they were before the extension was announced the other day.

I don't think many algorithms have factored in what that volume of deaths means. So waiting a week or two seems prudent.

I have moved all of my Yen out to $AU. Japan is going to be an absolute sh*tstorm in about a week. Tokyo hospitals are already being overwhelmed. Probably a good time to switch it out, looks like we won't be back in Japan for at least another year anyway so local currency doesn't matter so much. Where lived in Japan they have -advised- not to go to the pub after 2200. But the trains are still packed every day.

I bought a decent chunk of $US, GBP and SGD a few months back and the recent collapse of the AU dollar has made that seem a decent enough idea. I flicked 100K into zloty about 6 months back and even that has made money. So far now I am just holding onto my remaining $AU.

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I think shares will be a good play but not yet. I'd like to see a massive drop first... at least 80% from the peak.

Got a feeling Japanese officials were lying about their epidemic stats to get the Olympics up and running, so won't be surprised if things get worse there before they get better.

I watch the RUB a little bit. Seems to have held up well until the start of March, then dropped to massive lows against the USD. Not quite all time new lows (80.3336 now, 83.8344 in Jan 2016), I wonder how much traders were sweating if that broke...

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On 02/04/2020 at 3:35 AM, tor said:

Given that the current US media spin is that "100 000 deaths will mean we did a good job" and there are only about 5k deaths so far in the US and a roughly expected 60-90 days to go we are going to see numbers that are truly mind boggling.

To reiterate. The US government is currently saying their "We Dun Super Good" scenario is about 3000 deaths per million in the US. Italy is currently at 218. Australia is currently 0.9 per million.

...

100k deaths for a 330 million population is 303 deaths per million. Italy will probably end up above that at the end of it all.

Still, I agree that 300+ deaths per million is a terrible outcome. On the other hand, the normal flu took 61k lives during 2017/18 in USA and an estimated 34k lives during 2018/19: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

So from that perspective an outcome of twice the normal flu death toll would be reasonable containment considering how dangerous the coronavirus is.

Edited by AndersB

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Whoops yeah,not sure if that was a typo or me doing sh*tty math in my head. Thing is we are going to be seeing >1K deaths per day for a long time if 100K are going to die.

I don't see much chance of an economic sentiment recovering during that.

(I can't find any indication of what that 100K number means though. Next few weeks? next few years? etc.)

I don't see an 80% drop though. That'd be going back to like mid 90's levels. Writing off 25 yrs of growth etc would be pretty wild.

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On 3/28/2020 at 10:14 AM, zaph said:

My parents are on day 10 of self isolation after an anti holiday and returning from os. Not a peep from Authorities. No one knocking on the door, or calling to ensure they are isolating or that they have enough food so they don't need to break quarantine. 

QLD are taking people to hotels for 14 days of isolation now. No more 'self' in isolation. 

I visited the folks yesterday after they served their sentence in home detention. No contact from authorities during that time. Thanks for asking - they are fine. 

They set off on an intended cruise from Mauritius, the Seychelles, middle east and terminating in Venice before this thing got serious. They spent a few days in Mauritius then got on the boat, to be kicked off an hour later. Being English war kids they know how to act in a crisis. The multitude of other elderly Australians complained that a taxi fare would, or would not be covered by the tour operator are stranded there. M&D jumped in a cab and made it on an flight home with one hour to spare. 

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3 hours ago, zaph said:

I visited the folks yesterday after they served their sentence in home detention. No contact from authorities during that time. Thanks for asking - they are fine. 

They set off on an intended cruise from Mauritius, the Seychelles, middle east and terminating in Venice before this thing got serious. They spent a few days in Mauritius then got on the boat, to be kicked off an hour later. Being English war kids they know how to act in a crisis. The multitude of other elderly Australians complained that a taxi fare would, or would not be covered by the tour operator are stranded there. M&D jumped in a cab and made it on an flight home with one hour to spare. 

How did they find Mauritius? I have always wanted to go there just because of the stamp.

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18 hours ago, tor said:

How did they find Mauritius? I have always wanted to go there just because of the stamp.

Not sure. They were to get a cruise north. My dad complained that they had to fly economy.

 

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