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staringclown

How long will Scomo remain

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"Australia is powering forward." The wasteful political ads have begun. 

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ScoMo has to have a bi election for Wentworth or a general election very soon. He'll go for a bi election. The way Turnbull was deposed and the nature of the electorate could lead to a weirdo getting elected. If that happens then he will lack a majority and will need to call a general election. If it all happens he will narrowly avoid being Australia's shortest serving PM.

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1 hour ago, zaph said:

ScoMo has to have a bi election for Wentworth or a general election very soon. He'll go for a bi election. The way Turnbull was deposed and the nature of the electorate could lead to a weirdo getting elected. If that happens then he will lack a majority and will need to call a general election. If it all happens he will narrowly avoid being Australia's shortest serving PM.

I think the libs will probably hold Wentworth. It's more than they deserve.

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On 06/09/2018 at 7:43 AM, staringclown said:

I think the libs will probably hold Wentworth. It's more than they deserve.

Not for long.

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ScoMo's lost a lot of hair. It's common for a high level politician. 

I've seen him preaching. He's gonna have troubles between being a pentecostal christian and doing the most basic things. 

I'm not sure how you wave at Jesus, promise lower taxes, higher benefits, Indian immigrants all at the same time.

Shorten will do him. 

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11 hours ago, zaph said:

ScoMo's lost a lot of hair. It's common for a high level politician. 

I've seen him preaching. He's gonna have troubles between being a pentecostal christian and doing the most basic things. 

I'm not sure how you wave at Jesus, promise lower taxes, higher benefits, Indian immigrants all at the same time.

Shorten will do him. 

Shorten is so 'on the nose' with the electorate that Scomo is already ahead as preferred leader, even after the Libs' internal turmoil.

You'd think he would take a hint and quit.

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10 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Shorten is so 'on the nose' with the electorate that Scomo is already ahead as preferred leader, even after the Libs' internal turmoil.

You'd think he would take a hint and quit.

ScoMo can't win. Shorten can't win.

Shorty will win. It's a race between a douche and turd sandwich. 

ScoMo has lost to Billy in his first poll. It's a bit embarrassing, as newbies tend to get a good read. 

People don't want Humphrey B Bear running the joint. 

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15 hours ago, zaph said:

People don't want Humphrey B Bear running the joint. 

Problem is that dwarf head is hardly an improvement

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I'm not convinced that preferred PM is an indicator of electoral success. Turnbull was so close to losing last election even though he was way ahead as preferred PM. A popular PM is a nice to have. Policy should be more important.

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Just watched Humphrey's interview on 7.30. Average speaker. Been worse, been better.

He started foaming at the mouth when it came to religious freedom. Make no mistake "religious freedom" according to Morrison is extreme pentecostalism. Death to fags, no abortion, no end of life, etc. Other brands of Christianity will be tolerated, just. Any other form of religion will be legislated out of existence. 

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14 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Problem is that dwarf head is hardly an improvement

Agree

Now politics is a child's game. The number one aim of any party should be who can get us elected and keep us elected. Not so these days. 

Julie Bishop had the best chance of getting the libs a vote. Oh well we'll go for Humphrey.

Anyone but Shorten had the best chance of getting the ALP elected. 

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Quote

 

Kerryn Phelps, the first female head of the Australian Medical Association, will put civil rights and action on climate change at the forefront of her bid to claim the federal seat of Wentworth as an independent.

“The people of Wentworth are crying out for an authentic voice who will stand up to the major parties and rise above the bitterness and backstabbing that has taken over Canberra," Dr Phelps said in a statement.

She later told reporters in Double Bay that she would not be “a destabilising influence if elected'', a result that would strip the government led by Mr Turnbull's successor Scott Morrison of its one-seat majority.

“My intention is not to block supply,” Dr Phelps said.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/rise-above-bitterness-kerryn-phelps-to-run-as-independent-in-wentworth-20180916-p50420.html

 

 

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Quote

 

Malcolm Turnbull has dismissed former prime ministers Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd as “miserable ghosts” who cannot move on from their time in power, sharing his opinion in an unscripted remark caught on tape in New York.

Mr Turnbull also attacked the “crazy” leadership coup that ended his leadership five weeks ago and insisted his government could have won the next election if he had remained prime minister.

But he vowed not to be driven by hate and declared his days in partisan politics were now over.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-blasts-tony-abbott-and-kevin-rudd-as-miserable-ghosts-20181001-p50711.html

 

Mal had the wisdom to leave parliament after they dumped him. But just like Abbott and Rudd he will continue to destroy the party he served, only this time from the outside. 

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The libs are under existential threat. They need a divorce and the rwnj's need to go live with Cory. Australia has always been governed from the centre, veering slightly left or right. The moderates are the ones that win government. Labor have been through their own break up already when the greens formed. There's probably more to come in the Labor ranks as well. Both parties are bleeding to PHON. But PHON preferences don't necessarily flow how Pauline directs them and Labor aren't suffering as badly as the Libs. Unsure how Morrison will play, but my own personal baseball bat is out and waiting for the next election.

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Wentworth showed that the complete clusterf*ck that was the libs this week will be repaid with rancour. Either they change course or they are doomed. 

If they continue with religious freedom/anti gay, no climate change policy, follow trump , kill bill policies then we will have a change of government by May. Can scomo rein in the right?

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33 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Wentworth showed that the complete clusterf*ck that was the libs this week will be repaid with rancour.

Some was bad luck for the coalition, some bad decisions and some good olde plotting. eg plotting - Barnaby Rubble would rather be the leader of the Nats in oppossition than a backbencher in govt. 

Phelps success can be put down to her appearing to be everything the Wentworth electorate wants. Talks climate, tree hugging, humane treatment of refugees etc while also not hurting the hip pocket of her wealthy voters. What she promises is almost impossible - proves even wealthy, well educated people are gullible. 

Quote

Either they change course or they are doomed. 

I don't think they have time to change. 

The coalition just had to keep their members moderately happy to get legislation through the lower house. They now have to negotiate with, probably, Katter or Phelps - neither will be easy and will upset their other members. Let the horse trading begin(continue with different horses).

Quote

If they continue with religious freedom/anti gay, no climate change policy, follow trump , kill bill policies then we will have a change of government by May.

Phelps will stand against all those things. Katter will stand for all of them. 

Quote

Can scomo rein in the right?

Scomo is the right.

Will he call an election before the death and resurrection party of his beloved christ or will he hang do nothing till the last minute?

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18 hours ago, staringclown said:

Wentworth showed that the complete clusterf*ck that was the libs this week will be repaid with rancour. Either they change course or they are doomed. 

If they continue with religious freedom/anti gay, no climate change policy, follow trump , kill bill policies then we will have a change of government by May. Can scomo rein in the right?

I'd argue the opposite. The conservative vote is heavily splintered. There is no point in the Libs being left of centre when that is the ground of Labor. A party of conservative policies is the only way to unite those that vote conservative. Turnbull applied once to be a member of the Labor party and many of his policies reflected that.

The trend in the USA and Europe tells you how conservative parties are gaining office.

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32 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

I'd argue the opposite. The conservative vote is heavily splintered. There is no point in the Libs being left of centre when that is the ground of Labor. A party of conservative policies is the only way to unite those that vote conservative. Turnbull applied once to be a member of the Labor party and many of his policies reflected that.

The trend in the USA and Europe tells you how conservative parties are gaining office.

Also, it is not over yet. Wait until all postal votes have been counted:

Wentworth byelection: Gap between Kerryn Phelps and Dave Sharma narrows in surprise count update

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2 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Also, it is not over yet. Wait until all postal votes have been counted:

Wentworth byelection: Gap between Kerryn Phelps and Dave Sharma narrows in surprise count update

+ I haven't read the article +

Postal votes are more likely to favour Sharma because they were cast before the last week or so of disaster for the Libs. On the other hand Jewish postal votes may have leaned towards Phelps, a Jew, rather than Sharma a gentile before Scomo's we might throw Israel a crumb policy. 

Nothing is certain. 

 

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3 hours ago, cobran20 said:

I'd argue the opposite. The conservative vote is heavily splintered.

*More widely, not just Wentworth*

It is. But in the lower house those conservative votes revert to the coalition with preferences. Cori in the closet won't get a lower house seat. Hanson won't; et al

Quote

There is no point in the Libs being left of centre when that is the ground of Labor. A party of conservative policies is the only way to unite those that vote conservative.

It's an art for a party and politician to be everything to everyone. One third of votes go to rusted on Labor voters and one third to rusted on coalition voters. To get elected you need to appeal to the swingers in the middle. Howard was successful in that - he had traditional left wing family handouts while still keeping is right wing voters. 

Maybe Scomo will repeat Turnbull's mistake and call a DD if he has the means. 

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47 minutes ago, zaph said:

*More widely, not just Wentworth*

It is. But in the lower house those conservative votes revert to the coalition with preferences. Cori in the closet won't get a lower house seat. Hanson won't; et al

It's an art for a party and politician to be everything to everyone. One third of votes go to rusted on Labor voters and one third to rusted on coalition voters. To get elected you need to appeal to the swingers in the middle. Howard was successful in that - he had traditional left wing family handouts while still keeping is right wing voters. 

Maybe Scomo will repeat Turnbull's mistake and call a DD if he has the means. 

Too late for the Libs. They followed Labor with respect to changing leaders mid term and will suffer the same fate at the next election.

So it will be time again for Labor spend more than they earn and watch the federal deficit explode.

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5 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

Too late for the Libs. They followed Labor with respect to changing leaders mid term and will suffer the same fate at the next election.

So it will be time again for Labor spend more than they earn and watch the federal deficit explode.

The fed deficit exploded under the coalition, not the ALP.

 

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8 hours ago, zaph said:

The fed deficit exploded under the coalition, not the ALP.

 

I never get this. Conservatives always go on about their brilliant economy skills but they seem to blow budgets the same as liberals. My impression is conservatives blow budgets on going killing people / supporting corporations and liberals blow budgets giving druggies needles / slut mothers child support.

 

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