Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
cobran20

The continued decline in Australian housing sales, in one chart

30 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, cobran20 said:

IMO,

I don't read your posts. I'd suggest no one else does. You're a crank. 

Your opinion does not matter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, zaph said:

I don't read your posts. I'd suggest no one else does. You're a crank. 

Your opinion does not matter. 

Now I'm really hurt. To think that I'm melting poor snowflakes by challenging their facts with evidence to the contrary.

Not sure how I can live with myself anymore!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting, b_d was popular with the bears on GHPC when he saw falling house prices ahead. Then he (correctly) turned bullish and the bears turned on him. Now he is ruffling feathers by forecasting falls.

I don't see the controversy; his company collects some of the most detailed housing data in Australia so he is in an advantageous position to make forecasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Him changing his tune was a minor factor in me buying (or at least some comforting argument for my brain when the girlfriend had already decided to buy).

Him changing his tune now can be the same, hooray!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Turkey said:

Interesting, b_d was popular with the bears on GHPC when he saw falling house prices ahead. Then he (correctly) turned bullish and the bears turned on him. Now he is ruffling feathers by forecasting falls.

I don't see the controversy; his company collects some of the most detailed housing data in Australia so he is in an advantageous position to make forecasts.

Agree. Unlike the shrills, b_d calls it as it is, without a vested interest. He offered me a job once to work as an analyst for his company. But the $$$ were much better in IT, though I think his job offer would have been more interesting. But bills must be paid...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

link

Quote

...  listings were significantly up in Melbourne, creating large recorded rises over the year, which is illustrative of the downturn Melbourne has entered into.  In Sydney too, listings are up compared to a year earlier, as well as Canberra, as more vendors consider selling...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s 

Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50%

But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625

 

There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual.

 

We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses.

Maby fun stat:   average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent

Average price for an appartment in Zürich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment.

The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit,

so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 :rolleyes:

That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.

 

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Swaize said:

Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s 

Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50%

But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625

 

There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual.

 

We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses.

Maby fun stat:   average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent

Average price for an appartment in Zürich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment.

The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit,

so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 :rolleyes:

That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.

 

and they wonder why the average age in the west keeps increasing. History has solved these problems usually by a major economic downturn and wars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time.

And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol :)

Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now.

(basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......)

In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low!

Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Swaize said:

I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time.

And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol :)

Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now.

(basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......)

In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low!

Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....

During that period, I'd expect a very aggressive rejection of Merkelstan as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually angela merkel is about to be replaced by a guy from blackrock

Thats like the successor to goldman sachs

So...no hope for politics sorry.

Just so many people who think something is wrong and so many answers WHAT is wrong and WHY but none are really correct.

No joke, italys biggest party was/is a GREEN ECO party! so they now decide based on ecology not business or economic sense..... just bad. I will now try not to talk about politics in europe anymore in my life. Hard i know, but necessary for my nerves.

And to be on topic, i realized australian real estate is measured in AUD but the AUD is itself in a 7 year downtrend?

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/23/2018 at 10:51 PM, Swaize said:

And to be on topic, i realized australian real estate is measured in AUD but the AUD is itself in a 7 year downtrend?

Yes well aware. I've been trying to diversify out of the AUD. Most of my assets are but not my income unfortunately.

IMO Australian real estate will get even lower from a global perspective as I see both real estate prices and the value of the AUD declining.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes as interest rates rise, we can se a REAL crash in real estate.

Marty still sees the dollar rally A LOT by 2021

Measured in Dollars then, Marty sees the commodity bull market start mostly AFTER the dollar rallye

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone seems to be bearish on housing these days. That makes me nervous. We know how much the whole Australian economy is dependent on ever growing housing bubble and buying frenzy. A housing bust with minimal market activity would cause:

  • States to go broke as they don't get stamp duty revenue
  • Banks go bust because they won't write new mortgages and they face more loan defaults (that will hit retirees dependent on dividends in their super portfolio)
  • RE related industry go bust due to lack of market activity.
  • Domainfax will go bust as a "news" organisation. We can't have only Murdoch papers in Oz, can we?
  • Politicians lose elections since they don't do enough to prop up house prices

So will "they" ever let a housing crash happen? Perhaps not, there are too many powerful vested interests with snouts in troughs.

What can they do then? Well, for example:

  • The RBA can make a "surprise" big rate cut or two. Yay - finally, negative interests in Oz!
  • The RBA can announce that they will buy unlimited quantities of mortgage bonds (an Aussie QE only for real estate)
  • Foreigners can be given automatic citizenship if they buy houses over $1m (if they are that rich they must be good quality people :rolleyes:)
  • Superannuation can be allowed to be used as deposit for first home buyers, etc, etc.

All those decisions would be crazy of course, but hey - it will get pollies re-elected and the majority of the population turkeys will not vote for Christmas. I mean, we're talking the great Australian holy religious trinity here: Property, property, property!

The only disadvantage with those crazy decisions is that it will slaughter the AU$ currency. But that will just make bogan holidays in Bali more expensive and stimulate exports, so what's not to like?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AndersB said:

Everyone seems to be bearish on housing these days. That makes me nervous...

I'm concerned too as this capitulation by the media is way too early. I haven't discounted the distinct possibility/probability that we're now not getting a serious crash in RE prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, AndersB said:

The only disadvantage with those crazy decisions is that it will slaughter the AU$ currency. But that will just make bogan holidays in Bali more expensive and stimulate exports, so what's not to like?

Hence, I try to stay liquid but have assets outside of the AUD. Any attempt to save house prices will destroy the AUD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, AndersB said:

Everyone seems to be bearish on housing these days.

There are certainly more people bearish on housing than recent past times. But I wouldn't say everyone, or even most. "Bricks and mortar" still hold a big place in people's hearts (most invest/decide with their hearts) - that's not just an Australian thing.

Quote

That makes me nervous. We know how much the whole Australian economy is dependent on ever growing housing bubble and buying frenzy. A housing bust with minimal market activity would cause:

So it should. Be alert, but not alarmed. IMO there is a correction, not a crash coming/happening. Some burbs, housing types, cities, states will bust, some correct, a few boom and most will just tread water.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, zaph said:

There are certainly more people bearish on housing than recent past times. But I wouldn't say everyone, or even most. "Bricks and mortar" still hold a big place in people's hearts (most invest/decide with their hearts) - that's not just an Australian thing.

So it should. Be alert, but not alarmed. IMO there is a correction, not a crash coming/happening. Some burbs, housing types, cities, states will bust, some correct, a few boom and most will just tread water.

 

I think you are right. A correction will be allowed to happen but not a crash. As the correction unfolds then jaw-boning will start with threats (promises?) of potential measures that will stop the price falls. After that they will roll out countermeasures step by step. A housing crash a la Ireland will not be allowed to happen.

But can global markets force the hand of those with the monetary and fiscal levers? Australia has low federal debt and plenty of reserve ammunition to protect the housing market. It is therefore likely that the AU$ will pay the price.

Ironically, that will make Australia a far less attractive destination for overseas talent and reduce immigration levels. Why work for half pay of what you can get in the US? This will further reduce demand for new housing, but will in the end reduce pressures on local infrastructure and improve quality of life over here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AndersB said:

Australia has low federal debt...

Wait until the change of Federal government next year. They have a solid track record in turning budgets deep red.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0