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cobran20

The continued decline in Australian housing sales, in one chart

15 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, cobran20 said:

IMO,

I don't read your posts. I'd suggest no one else does. You're a crank. 

Your opinion does not matter. 

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15 hours ago, zaph said:

I don't read your posts. I'd suggest no one else does. You're a crank. 

Your opinion does not matter. 

Now I'm really hurt. To think that I'm melting poor snowflakes by challenging their facts with evidence to the contrary.

Not sure how I can live with myself anymore!

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Interesting, b_d was popular with the bears on GHPC when he saw falling house prices ahead. Then he (correctly) turned bullish and the bears turned on him. Now he is ruffling feathers by forecasting falls.

I don't see the controversy; his company collects some of the most detailed housing data in Australia so he is in an advantageous position to make forecasts.

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Him changing his tune was a minor factor in me buying (or at least some comforting argument for my brain when the girlfriend had already decided to buy).

Him changing his tune now can be the same, hooray!

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2 hours ago, Turkey said:

Interesting, b_d was popular with the bears on GHPC when he saw falling house prices ahead. Then he (correctly) turned bullish and the bears turned on him. Now he is ruffling feathers by forecasting falls.

I don't see the controversy; his company collects some of the most detailed housing data in Australia so he is in an advantageous position to make forecasts.

Agree. Unlike the shrills, b_d calls it as it is, without a vested interest. He offered me a job once to work as an analyst for his company. But the $$$ were much better in IT, though I think his job offer would have been more interesting. But bills must be paid...

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link

Quote

...  listings were significantly up in Melbourne, creating large recorded rises over the year, which is illustrative of the downturn Melbourne has entered into.  In Sydney too, listings are up compared to a year earlier, as well as Canberra, as more vendors consider selling...

 

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Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s 

Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50%

But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625

 

There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual.

 

We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses.

Maby fun stat:   average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent

Average price for an appartment in Zürich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment.

The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit,

so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 :rolleyes:

That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.

 

Edited by Swaize

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19 hours ago, Swaize said:

Now in the swiss mountains prices tumble. Switzerland was so far not hit by ANY real estate slowdown since 1980s 

Prices since 2007 are someplaces up by 50%

But since july 2017 prices are FLAT: https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/kurse-produkte/indizes/detail/?ID_NOTATION=7910625

 

There were still some regions with price growth up from last year but much less than usual.

 

We are now at the flat-peaking phase. I think its safe to say, that when rates rise in Switzerland, prices will come down. And in a -0,5% interest environment that will have quite crazy effects on downpayment of million dollar houses.

Maby fun stat:   average rent for 100m2 is 2165Chf so 3000 AUD per 100m2 rent

Average price for an appartment in Zürich was 1million Chf last year. So about 1.5million AUD for an average appartment.

The average houshold, so one woman one man working, has to work for 10 years to get enough money for a credit,

so age 25 out of uni, at 35 get credit, after 10 year fixed interest die on the then high interest rates at age 45 :rolleyes:

That explains why the average age for a baby is so high, when people can only afford a house at age 35 but both have to work to pay down the loan. And 42h per week is normal and 1h to go to work is normal, so not much time left to actually see the child.

 

and they wonder why the average age in the west keeps increasing. History has solved these problems usually by a major economic downturn and wars.

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I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time.

And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol :)

Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now.

(basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......)

In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low!

Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....

Edited by Swaize

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12 hours ago, Swaize said:

I think Europe is f*ckED for a LOOOOOOONG time.

And im not talking about spain and greece, those are f*cked SINCE a looong time lol :)

Im talking about the healthy ones like Czech, Poland, Germany, England, Holland these are the ones with low unemployment right now.

(basically all the Germanic genetic regions are healthy, oh the coincidence, and the greeks who got overrun by turks and the spanish who got overrun by muslems have sh*tty economies, bad sign now that Austria and Germany are ALSO overrun by africans and middle-easterns......)

In 10years when the next crysis is over, then the fixed interest loans will have run out and become changeable interest loans. So thats 2028, add maby 5y housing downturn to that and you arrive 2033 which is martys real estate cycle low!

Oh... have i mentioned that maaaany swiss pension funds invested heavily in Real Estate because Bonds were not yielding anything....and swiss private people took their pension savings and put them into RealEstate too....

During that period, I'd expect a very aggressive rejection of Merkelstan as well.

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