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cobran20

Gottliebsen says some Sydney unit prices have fallen 25 percent as market has cracked

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2 hours ago, Swaize said:

Wait til i start talking about Europe haha ;)

I used to annoy my friends by talking about economics, but now that i understand the whole european situation even i find it too depressing to talk about it!

I travelled a bit in Europe this year, italy, spain, germany, swiss, poland, denmark, sweden and what i noticed is that i liked those places that had the least:  migrants, foreigners, tourists, old people, fat people

recently read malmö (which feels horrible to walk around, so many migrants) is ridden with crime now 

in Frankfurt kurds and turks had a massive brawl inside the airport

So if you buy real estate, avoid places with high foreigner populations. Also, depending on the city there is a different mix of foreigners and some are nicer like polish, czech, and some are worse like turks, maroccans (all based on personal experience, anecdotal evidence and news articles of crime sydicates in netherlands and berlin) in switzerland a guy i know who rents-out hundreds of appartments told me, he is now throwing all the greeks out, cause they are just terrible, never pay, always excuses. Probably also a culture difference and different mentality.

 

@medved

just wait til asia gets crashed by dollar debt and china slowdown, then nice opportunities will be had

or buy the dow jones, or gold stocks on dips, or start looking in the AG space like land or farm companies or commodity ETFs as marty thinks these will go up eventually into 2024

i forgot to add: lending will also dry up for real estate when the first wave of houses with 0% downpayment go bust after rising rates. usually not a good idea longterm to chase something that had past gains, better to look what is cheap and poised to rallye eventually! 

 

Just been to the south island of New Zealand. Absolutely stunning countryside on the west coast. Not many people, very nice in summer. The winter, cost of living and those earthquakes however...

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1 hour ago, zaph said:

We've been 'stuffed' for a decade according to the grizzly bears. Yet no collapse. 

Certainly has taken longer than expected for interest rates to rise.

But when they do, as in previous times, the over leveraged will be bailing out quickly.

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3 hours ago, Swaize said:

So if you buy real estate, avoid places with high foreigner populations. Also, depending on the city there is a different mix of foreigners and some are nicer like polish, czech, and some are worse like turks, maroccans (all based on personal experience, anecdotal evidence and news articles of crime sydicates in netherlands and berlin) in switzerland a guy i know who rents-out hundreds of appartments told me, he is now throwing all the greeks out, cause they are just terrible, never pay, always excuses. Probably also a culture difference and different mentality.

 

@medved

just wait til asia gets crashed by dollar debt and china slowdown, then nice opportunities will be had

or buy the dow jones, or gold stocks on dips, or start looking in the AG space like land or farm companies or commodity ETFs as marty thinks these will go up eventually into 2024

i forgot to add: lending will also dry up for real estate when the first wave of houses with 0% downpayment go bust after rising rates. usually not a good idea longterm to chase something that had past gains, better to look what is cheap and poised to rallye eventually! 

 

Re real estate, I'm only targeting one city - Novosibirsk.

Third most populous city in Russia, a fairly long way from anywhere not Russia. Strong academic and cultural tradition, diverse economy, reasonable infrastructure, transport hub (Turksib and Trans-Sib train lines, international airport) close to forests and nature, and not ridiculously expensive real estate for westerners. Downside is air pollution (coal burning, cars), really really cold winters, and expensive fresh foods particularly in winter.

Migrants - mostly from other Russian cities or ethnic Russians leaving Central Asia. I take it some Asian (Chinese) migrants for economic reasons but they seem to be a minority.

Foreigners/tourists - not a big tourist destination. Most foreigners are there for study or business. Seems a small expat community.

Old people - don't have demographics for the city but for the country it's not as bad as other places. Siberia is not the place you choose to retire like Florida, Spain or Queensland! https://www.indexmundi.com/russia/demographics_profile.html

Fat people - Russia is not too far behind the West but culturally very different in treating "fatties" https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/why-does-russia-loathe-its-old-fat-and-ugly-57983 . Anecdotally young people, especially women, are not overweight/obese much. Women are far more feminine in appearance than in Australia. It's more the elderly that are fat because of a diet full of potatoes and bread, etc. and limited activity due to the winters.

So it may suit your sensibilities!

Although the bureaucracy and corruption in Russia appears to be hideous the taxation regime seems to be much better than in Australia, especially 13% income tax! I'd estimate the government receives triple that or more from me with a high marginal tax rate (30+%) and payroll tax (~5%).

Re investments, I'll be watching USD weakness as I'd like to get exposure to currency and stocks if they drop. I need to learn the easiest way to get exposure to Asian markets because there may be opportunities coming up like the Asian Crisis in the late 90s. A guy I know said the Malaysian stock market dropped 90%, perfect time to buy. Those who had the mettle to buy made a lot of money.

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4 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Re real estate, I'm only targeting one city - Novosibirsk.

Just looked it up on the map. Looks like the middle of nowhere. Have you got relatives there to pick such a place?

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9 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Just looked it up on the map. Looks like the middle of nowhere. Have you got relatives there to pick such a place?

One of the major attractions is it is in the middle of nowhere. But it is a crossroad for trade. Mrs Medved has family in that part of her world and her best friend lives there.

A friend of mine told me that an academic undertook research on the best place to live if the SHTF and Novosibirsk was either best place or close to it. It's an academic centre of Russia so is a relatively educated city. The crown jewel of the city is the opera and ballet theatre. So it's not just a city full of gopniks and drunks though will have a fair share.

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44 minutes ago, Mr Medved said:

One of the major attractions is it is in the middle of nowhere. But it is a crossroad for trade. Mrs Medved has family in that part of her world and her best friend lives there.

A friend of mine told me that an academic undertook research on the best place to live if the SHTF and Novosibirsk was either best place or close to it. It's an academic centre of Russia so is a relatively educated city. The crown jewel of the city is the opera and ballet theatre. So it's not just a city full of gopniks and drunks though will have a fair share.

I'd guess indoor activities must be big there :-) as the winters would be severe. Need a lot of vodka to keep you warm.

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Well a place like that wont ever have old people :)

Plus in Russia old men drink themselves to death, especially the poor.

Does Novo have a significant amount of Tartars or Mongols? Or mostly brown haired Slavs? Just curious.

 

As for the Dollar:

Global market watch says: bearish

But sometime this year, maby now, should be a low, as there is a clear turnpoint this year 

"A possible change in trend appears due come this month in THE CASH US$ INDEX so be focused.  Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 95160 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 87914.  Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 93666 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 87624."

Straight outta Compton Socrates and you can get this by subscribing to the Investor Version for 15$ a month. Marty added Reversals now, as you can see :)

With the Trading Version that might be launched this year, you get more turning points further out and more Reversals above and below. To forecast a single non-forex-market its best to just use the major monthly reversals to get out when SHTF

 

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1 hour ago, Swaize said:

Well a place like that wont ever have old people :)

Plus in Russia old men drink themselves to death, especially the poor.

Does Novo have a significant amount of Tartars or Mongols? Or mostly brown haired Slavs? Just curious.

I haven't been there before but I'm guessing mostly Slavs... over 93% are ethnic Russian in the oblast/"state", may be lower in the city. Mongols are generally further east and Tartars further west and south. During World War 2 the intelligentsia/academics were evacuated to Novosibirsk so a fair few smart Russians ended up there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Ethnic_groups

It looks like quite a few Germans ended up in Siberia.

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Germans "ended up" in Siberia, nicely put ;)

Those were probably the deathcamp equivalents of Russia

Its crazy how i cant imagine war in europe yet its been going on for centuries. Maby the new war is street fights with maroccans, turks, kurds and so on.

 

So.... luxury real estate?

Marty predicted it to have peaked but we might have to wait a year to see the data come out. When i read the news its all still about new alltimehighs. Even in France the downturn seems to have ended with macrons election.

quote from some news source about real estate from the internet that catches the outside view of foreign investors: "Buyers looking to invest in European real estate this year may have trouble keeping up with the continent’s changing fortunes..  Rapidly shifting global events, from political stalemate in Germany to uncertainty over Brexit in the U.K., the Catalonian separatist movement in Spain and upcoming elections in Italy, make it hard to know where is a safe, let alone advantageous, place to buy."

It seems to me that Marty just "cherry picked" those markets that followed his forecast and ignored the others. Canada retail real estate for example is past its 2007 highs.

 

 

Edited by Swaize

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seems major city real estate in australia DID come down a bit:

" Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to fall in February but the rate of decline in prices has started to ease, Corelogic says.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-melbourne-property-price-falls-ease-in-february-20180228-h0wt5q#ixzz58atUrCYv 
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
"

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Prices have risen to such a crazy level that it is only an influx of foreign capital that can keep prices around current levels. I can't see banks loosening their standards much more than they already have. So I'm hoping for a Japanese-style lost decade because the country couldn't handle a house price crash.

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1 hour ago, Mr Medved said:

Prices have risen to such a crazy level that it is only an influx of foreign capital that can keep prices around current levels. I can't see banks loosening their standards much more than they already have. So I'm hoping for a Japanese-style lost decade because the country couldn't handle a house price crash.

The slow torture outcome in Japan occurred during  increasing liquidity and dropping interest rates. That economic approach has already occurred in the west and all signs are that the opposite is ahead.

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Also you should get the history right, japans housing market especially the crazy expensive cities DID have quite the crash, as did the nikkei!!!

The reason why its called the lost (2?) Decades is that prices then never went up again... ever...

Couple years ago marty predicted the nikkei to finally rise again which it eventually now did. 1989 was the crash...

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3 hours ago, Swaize said:

Also you should get the history right, japans housing market especially the crazy expensive cities DID have quite the crash, as did the nikkei!!!

The reason why its called the lost (2?) Decades is that prices then never went up again... ever...

Couple years ago marty predicted the nikkei to finally rise again which it eventually now did. 1989 was the crash...

Yes, the Japanese got burned on RE at home and abroad like Australia, where they were buying in bulk like the Chinese currently are.

I'm expecting a similar outcome for the chinese. The global economy can easily shrink if trade barriers rise and foreign RE buyers are slugged with high taxes.

 

1.JPG

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Goodness, 16 years straight down....THATS demoralizing.

Thanks for that chart cobran!

I can add that in great britain housing data back to 1952 the bearmarkets lasted 5 years and never longer. 1952 was the start of martys real estate cycle, 2007/17 is the end. So obviously cobran you just showed me that i need a longer data series to get a real picture of how nasty downturns can be when the big cycles end! Seems that 5y timeframe doesnt apply to uber-mega-bubbles.

Edited by Swaize

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3 hours ago, Swaize said:

... Seems that 5y timeframe doesnt apply to uber-mega-bubbles.

5 years is a very myopic approach to viewing long term cycles.

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Well the data i got was back to 1952, from england real estate

In that timeframe longest bearmarkets were 5y long

So 1952 - 2018 = 62years of data is not enough in this case to find the really big long downturns that might now come again!

Try explain that to someone, they only know the last 30-62 years when houses mostly went up! Or in my case i only remember 2007-2018 with now 2 housing bubbles. So the young ones wont buy and the older ones have already and neither of them can imagine a 16year decline in prices....

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22 hours ago, Swaize said:

Well the data i got was back to 1952, from england real estate

In that timeframe longest bearmarkets were 5y long

So 1952 - 2018 = 62years of data is not enough in this case to find the really big long downturns that might now come again!

Try explain that to someone, they only know the last 30-62 years when houses mostly went up! Or in my case i only remember 2007-2018 with now 2 housing bubbles. So the young ones wont buy and the older ones have already and neither of them can imagine a 16year decline in prices....

Try explaining to somebody under 30 that interest rates also rise.

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Just tried yesterday to my girlfriend. I got a sad face from her ;)

Yeah THAT will be interesting. 

I imagine it like a big wave of defaults and bankruptcies that slowly slowly sweeps over the planet for 15 years with  inflation and panic in rich countries and unrest in poor countries with rising food prices and rising gold prices towards the end around 2030-2034  while the time 2030-2040 could be really depressing and bleak. By then one should be long gone from Europe/USA  and live in Asia/Latin America

Im working on a inflation counter from supermarket prices and house prices. I think it will be difficult to rely on government to measure inflation.

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2 hours ago, Swaize said:

Just tried yesterday to my girlfriend. I got a sad face from her ;)

Yeah THAT will be interesting. 

I imagine it like a big wave of defaults and bankruptcies that slowly slowly sweeps over the planet for 15 years with  inflation and panic in rich countries and unrest in poor countries with rising food prices and rising gold prices towards the end around 2030-2034  while the time 2030-2040 could be really depressing and bleak. By then one should be long gone from Europe/USA  and live in Asia/Latin America

Im working on a inflation counter from supermarket prices and house prices. I think it will be difficult to rely on government to measure inflation.

I work on the following equation:

Real inflation = Govt CPI x 2

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in switzerland cpi is negative so need harsher measures ;) so i make my own inflation counter!

Marty now wrote by 2020 or 2023 unimaginable high interest rates are gonna come to europe!

Marty wrote the next financial crysis has started and in 2019 will be visible

It seems i will get real, really fast now! Ruuun! Haha :) no but really, it seems i have to prepare with more earnest and more USD-Cash notes under the pillow!  cash is king!  And  some gold. One year til the next crysis, tick tak

Edited by Swaize

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11 hours ago, Swaize said:

in switzerland cpi is negative so need harsher measures ;) so i make my own inflation counter!

Marty now wrote by 2020 or 2023 unimaginable high interest rates are gonna come to europe!

Marty wrote the next financial crysis has started and in 2019 will be visible

It seems i will get real, really fast now! Ruuun! Haha :) no but really, it seems i have to prepare with more earnest and more USD-Cash notes under the pillow!  cash is king!  And  some gold. One year til the next crysis, tick tak

Swaize - what is your view / Armstrong's view on USD? I am looking to diversify more into USD, not necessarily notes but a bank account.

 

 

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Quarterly turnpoint coming up and usd is low

So a good time to get usd it seems to me.

Marty is bullish on the dollar, talked about higher dollar since 2014?  2021 is his dollar target for a high.

He says higher dollar will initially hurt gold and commodities but in other currencies gold may rise. In dollars not quite there yet. Sounds the least bearish since many years. His soon to come gold report is not focussed anymore on the low but on the breakout in the future :)

2024 should be commodity peak, he said that many times now. Last was 2007 and 2011 both were gold highs so 6 years if you want to buy and hold. Then another 6years to when he expects tangible assets to rise and peak somewhere in 2030-35 so buy low guys :)

Silver is 300% til the alltimehigh which probably gets exceeded by the 2030s

Marty looking to buy the dow again, still bullish.

Edited by Swaize

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