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cobran20

Mortgage arrears break records in two states and NT

2 posts in this topic

Since you mention interest rates and wonder about timing, maby i can help......

 

Socrates is quite clear that the next big turnpoint on both the quarterly timeframe and also on the monthly timeframe is clearly:

 

June 2017

 

On the yearly timeframe, the year 2019 could well be the low as its the next big yearly turnpoint that stands out and has a lot of volatility. 

As far as looking for a low and volatility on the quarterly i also see it starting early 2018-2019 so if i would have to bet when the crash happens, that would be the time. Crash in Bond price means rise in rates.

 

I can also give you a price to watch for the confirmation of the start of the longterm bear market. A monthly close below 96,14 on the 10y Australian Government Bond means we have elected all 4 monthly bearish Reversals and therefore the bear market is official. The last time Australian bonds have been that low was April 2014

 

So this is what i see on Socrates. But the computer can also "speak" for himself.

He gives mostly numbers to watch on a monthly closing basis:

"Since the last key low of 95615 established during December 2013, the market has continued to press higher reaching 98200 after a 32 month rally peaking during August. Moreover, we have paused for the past 2 months from this last recent high. Currently, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from this new high. The immediate Monthly Bearish Reversal to watch lies at 97420 but focus more on 97294. A closing beneath this level will signal a temporary high is in place. Additionally, we closed under our technical support at 98010 warning of a pause in the uptrend for now. We need a monthly closing above 98160 to imply a further rally in unfolding. We have elected 2 Monthly Reversals from the reaction low ofOctober leaving us to watch 97806 on a monthly closing basis to signal a further adavnce ahead. "

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