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cobran20

London Property Bubble Bursts

13 posts in this topic

i checked the governments statistic and can NOT find ANY nationwide decline of any significance. That is regarding price.

But new builds slowed by 2%

And really BAD is the SALES fell by 9% over last year

 

So first less gets sold, then less gets built, then prices come down it seems. The last step is still missing from data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-may-2018

" Despite the falls in London, property prices in the capital are only 3% below the record highs achieved in early 2017, and are still 50% higher than they were in 2007 before the financial crisis. "

By the way early 2017 is about 1 year later than Martin Armstrong predicted the peak in the "luxury real estate market"

Interest rates in Europe peaked about mid 2016 which is about 8 months later than Martin Armstrong predicted.

All in all pretty good job i think.  So if he was right on that, then be worried about his prediction of doubling, tripling interest rates within a few years.

 

Edited by Swaize

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15 hours ago, Swaize said:

i checked the governments statistic and can NOT find ANY nationwide decline of any significance. That is regarding price.

But new builds slowed by 2%

And really BAD is the SALES fell by 9% over last year

 

So first less gets sold, then less gets built, then prices come down it seems. The last step is still missing from data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-may-2018

" Despite the falls in London, property prices in the capital are only 3% below the record highs achieved in early 2017, and are still 50% higher than they were in 2007 before the financial crisis. "

By the way early 2017 is about 1 year later than Martin Armstrong predicted the peak in the "luxury real estate market"

Interest rates in Europe peaked about mid 2016 which is about 8 months later than Martin Armstrong predicted.

All in all pretty good job i think.  So if he was right on that, then be worried about his prediction of doubling, tripling interest rates within a few years.

 

Let's not forget soft commodity prices! :)

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I just realized i made a mistake, by believing local statistics. Of course the pound dropped IMMENSLY!!!

From 2014 at 0,60 to USD to 0,80 to USD today

So maby the REAL high wasnt early 2017 but actually earlier.

So during a short term, maby 2 year timeframe, a falling currency can kill all profits in real estate in real terms.

 

@cobran20   i just checked the old yearly arrays on commodities again and around the years 2023/24 all  commodities have big turnpoints, oil, corn, copper, gold you name it

The next coming up for gold is 2020 (ny spot gold)

The next for silver is 2021

Edited by Swaize

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6 hours ago, Swaize said:

I just realized i made a mistake, by believing local statistics. Of course the pound dropped IMMENSLY!!!

From 2014 at 0,60 to USD to 0,80 to USD today

So maby the REAL high wasnt early 2017 but actually earlier.

So during a short term, maby 2 year timeframe, a falling currency can kill all profits in real estate in real terms.

 

@cobran20   i just checked the old yearly arrays on commodities again and around the years 2023/24 all  commodities have big turnpoints, oil, corn, copper, gold you name it

The next coming up for gold is 2020 (ny spot gold)

The next for silver is 2021

thanks for the update

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thats also when marty expects a big high in us dollar.

so buckle up, for some crazy times, also as china unwinds which was a big boost for australia that could now fall away.

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5 hours ago, Swaize said:

thats also when marty expects a big high in us dollar.

so buckle up, for some crazy times, also as china unwinds which was a big boost for australia that could now fall away.

If commodities have a major turning point in 2023/24, then it implies a major turning point in the $US as they're all quoted in that currency.

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The dollars turnpoint against the euro its definitely 2021

 

2023/24 will be commodities REALLY moving, a genuine commodity bullmarket, irrespective or currencies. droughts will make food go up, there will be inflation, all the good stuff :) (says marty)

probably accompanied by a weaker dollar, as this is after martys expected dollar super-high

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Yeah well after 30 awesome years, a big crysis and then maby another 30 so so years.

Thats just the normal pattern, in Germany they had now the 30 so so years and economists on youtube argue over why the years were only soso and how they could return to the good years again, what system they need, while allthewhile being totally blind that now the quite bad 30 years come!

So just step out of the way of the rolling big snowballs of doom and you will be fine again after the crysis. Commodities will rally, you have low public debts so after the banks swollow the bad pill or the government bails them out, it will be quite okay again :)

Remember, as long as you got a job that just pays every month, then you dont care how unemployment rises or sales slump. Just  stay in there.

Then when government suffocates on the now high debt like europe, then you gotta start getting out of there.

Edited by Swaize

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