cobran20

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming Myth Consensus

208 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, staringclown said:

Why would you as a human notice? You can move into air con. You're like the apocryphal "boiling frog". Other species are noticing. Plenty of interest in Tasmanian vineyards for example. Apparently, the cool climate wines are ripening two weeks earlier each year. 

 

Check my posting from the 13/12/2016. 40 years ago, it was just as hot and I had no A/C in my parent's house.

I just refuse to drink the BS cordial being shoved down people's throat.

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53 minutes ago, staringclown said:
Quote

..Sydney has now reached or topped 35 degrees eight times this summer, the equal second-most on record, and matching the 1979-80 season. With more than a month of summer to go, the record of nine such days - set back in 1895-96 - is in range...

So at best, this 'fast & massive' global warming is setting the same temperatures of around 35 years ago and still not broken the record of around 120 years ago.

I wonder what our climate prophet, Tim Flannery's has to say about those stats?!

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I haven't read "fast & massive" in any IPCC report. Just continuous and ongoing. If you can point me toward the last "coldest month in Sydney in a 120 years" headline please do so...

Edited by staringclown
apples with apples

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9 hours ago, staringclown said:

I haven't read "fast & massive" in any IPCC report. Just continuous and ongoing. If you can point me toward the last "coldest month in Sydney in a 120 years" headline please do so...

Can't vouch for the accuracy, but for Australia it is:

Quote

Charlotte Pass, N.S.W.    June 29, 1994       –22C

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16 hours ago, staringclown said:

I haven't read "fast & massive" in any IPCC report. 

Don't forget that our climate prophet/alarmist stated around 10 years that our dams would be dry within a couple of years and major cities would be dependent on desalination plants for water. Dillard then wasted tax payers money hiring the idiot as Climate commissioner. Fortunately, the subsequent government sacked him.

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16 hours ago, staringclown said:

I haven't read "fast & massive" in any IPCC report. Just continuous and ongoing. If you can point me toward the last "coldest month in Sydney in a 120 years" headline please do so...

This table is unfortunately 11 years old. Nevertheless, some of the highest averages are from the late 1800's.

Sydney Temperature Records

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5 hours ago, cobran20 said:

 

This table is unfortunately 11 years old. Nevertheless, some of the highest averages are from the late 1800's.

Sydney Temperature Records

Thanks for the link cobran. It's difficult to get a clear picture from the raw data.

This one from the BOM shows data from the Sydney Observatory and has the ability to highlight the stats according to long term averages (since 1859). The warming trend is pretty clear when you select 'median or more'.

Sydney Observatory long term monthly average

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13 hours ago, staringclown said:

Thanks for the link cobran. It's difficult to get a clear picture from the raw data.

This one from the BOM shows data from the Sydney Observatory and has the ability to highlight the stats according to long term averages (since 1859). The warming trend is pretty clear when you select 'median or more'.

Sydney Observatory long term monthly average

Good point. Since it is about Sydney specific, what I'd like to know is the effect of the ever growing concrete jungle on those temperatures. It is well know fact that concrete jungles increase local temperatures.

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2 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Good point. Since it is about Sydney specific, what I'd like to know is the effect of the ever growing concrete jungle on those temperatures. It is well know fact that concrete jungles increase local temperatures.

Yes Urban heat islands will have localised effects. This article talks about the Western suburbs showing more pronounced warming in pockets due to UHI's. I suspect that the Sydney Observatory readings would suffer less from the UHI effect as it's surrounded by parkland, on a hill and subject to sea breezes etc. 

An easy way to eliminate the effect would be to check stations outside the urban areas. Its hard to find such stations with datasets as long as Sydney Observatory however I found Lake Burrunjuck near Canberra has data back to 1912 and Hobart (Battery point - which is not what I would refer to as a concrete jungle) that has data from 1881. Both show similar warming to Sydney Observatory.

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On 1/29/2017 at 1:37 AM, staringclown said:

Yes Urban heat islands will have localised effects. This article talks about the Western suburbs showing more pronounced warming in pockets due to UHI's. I suspect that the Sydney Observatory readings would suffer less from the UHI effect as it's surrounded by parkland, on a hill and subject to sea breezes etc. 

An easy way to eliminate the effect would be to check stations outside the urban areas. Its hard to find such stations with datasets as long as Sydney Observatory however I found Lake Burrunjuck near Canberra has data back to 1912 and Hobart (Battery point - which is not what I would refer to as a concrete jungle) that has data from 1881. Both show similar warming to Sydney Observatory.

Intent as the enemy of truth

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4 hours ago, staringclown said:

So are you suggesting that a blogger with a Phd in bugs is a more credible source than the BOM?

and why not as long as the two academics understand statistics to criticise what the BOM publishes?  After all, they made Tim Flannery who is a mammalogist and palaeontologist, a guru on global warming who told us we were going to have no water in the dams by 2012!

I'd like a public exchange of views between the BOM and the academics regarding how the stats are generated.

 

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5 hours ago, cobran20 said:

and why not as long as the two academics understand statistics to criticise what the BOM publishes?  After all, they made Tim Flannery who is a mammalogist and palaeontologist, a guru on global warming who told us we were going to have no water in the dams by 2012!

I'd like a public exchange of views between the BOM and the academics regarding how the stats are generated.

 

That debate has already happened. She made her argument in the Australian back in 2010. She appeared on Q&A with Flannery. She had the BOM methods peer reviewed fact checked and then peer reviewed again. Each time the BOM were not only exonerated but praised for maintaining a dataset using world's best practice.

MediaWatch did a piece on regarding her dubious Australian Environmental Foundation submission on the Murray Darling Basin water flows. Scientists with actual expertise in the ecology of Lake Alexandrina largely panned her opinions. 

The focus however was upon her lack of disclosure that the AEF was a front organisation for the IPA.

The BOM publish their methodology for all to see. In spite of the reasons for starting the record at 1910 (due to the early data being unreliable) she persists in using it anyway.

This is the UNSW opinion of what happens when using raw (unhomogenised data)

Quote

 

Our data on extreme temperature trends show that the warming trend across the whole of Australia looks bigger when you don’t homogenise the data than when you do. For example, the adjusted data set (the lower image below) shows a cooling trend over parts of northwest Australia, which isn’t seen in the raw data.

7vp33rdk-1409381940.png

 

Trends in the frequency of hot days over Australia – unadjusted data using all temperature stations that have at least 40 years of record available for Australia from the GHCN-Daily data set. rm6bcf6c-1409381976.png

 

Trends in the frequency of hot days over Australia – adjusted ACORN-SAT data. The period of trend covers 1951-2010 when both datasets have overlapping data. All data used in figures are available from www.climdex.org.

Next...

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2 hours ago, staringclown said:

That debate has already happened. She made her argument in the Australian back in 2010. She appeared on Q&A with Flannery. She had the BOM methods peer reviewed fact checked and then peer reviewed again. Each time the BOM were not only exonerated but praised for maintaining a dataset using world's best practice.

MediaWatch did a piece on regarding her dubious Australian Environmental Foundation submission on the Murray Darling Basin water flows. Scientists with actual expertise in the ecology of Lake Alexandrina largely panned her opinions. 

The focus however was upon her lack of disclosure that the AEF was a front organisation for the IPA.

The BOM publish their methodology for all to see. In spite of the reasons for starting the record at 1910 (due to the early data being unreliable) she persists in using it anyway.

This is the UNSW opinion of what happens when using raw (unhomogenised data)

Next...

Quote

Verdict

False. The poor quality of early data makes it impossible to conclude with confidence that 1896 was Australia’s hottest summer – the best available estimate is that it was considerably cooler than 2013.

The pre-1910 data have not been “wiped from the record”. They are still available on the Bureau’s website, but are not included in the official record because they cannot be compared easily with modern data.

So it is not conclusive that 1896 was cooler. Considering Armstrong has found temperature cycles to be around 300 years, a shame we don't have that much 'reliable' data on Australia.

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Well if you can tell me what in the universe is "conclusive" we'll have an argument. I can't definitively prove that alien lizard people aren't running the world as we speak but we opt for the balance of probability based on evidence that they are not. Except for the donald of course. We have no choice but to rely on the best available evidence from the best available sources. I've no problem with anybody questioning the orthodoxy. I'd do it myself if I thought I had a case... There is no conspiracy. Unless it has been planned since the 1950's and every weather reader and climate scientist across the planet is involved. I know you work in IT projects and frankly hats off to the lizard people that could coordinate that level of co-operation. f*ck me, I can't.*

 

*Where in the f*ck does Armstrong get his data over multiples of 300 years?

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10 hours ago, staringclown said:

*Where in the f*ck does Armstrong get his data over multiples of 300 years?

Armstrong found reliable data that meets cobrans standards, it doesn't matter where from.

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8 minutes ago, tor said:

Armstrong found reliable data that meets cobrans standards, it doesn't matter where from.

His models are proving better at predicting than mainstream ... Brexit, Trump, European elections next?

The climate one will take longer prove true/false due to the amplitude of the cycle.

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12 hours ago, staringclown said:

Well if you can tell me what in the universe is "conclusive" we'll have an argument. I can't definitively prove that alien lizard people aren't running the world as we speak but we opt for the balance of probability based on evidence that they are not. Except for the donald of course. We have no choice but to rely on the best available evidence from the best available sources. I've no problem with anybody questioning the orthodoxy. I'd do it myself if I thought I had a case... There is no conspiracy. Unless it has been planned since the 1950's and every weather reader and climate scientist across the planet is involved. I know you work in IT projects and frankly hats off to the lizard people that could coordinate that level of co-operation. f*ck me, I can't.*

 

*Where in the f*ck does Armstrong get his data over multiples of 300 years?

You're asking me to drink the cordial on a major paradigm shift in energy generation, forced down by governments, where the proposed alternative is both more expensive and unreliable to society. History shows that changes in energy are not forced down people's throat but more naturally from technological innovation making the new alternative common sense to implement. The evidence is not 100% conclusive that any warming is man made, the alternatives like wind farms are an absolute eye sore and detrimental to local bird life ... and as the people of Adelaide found out, it is f@cking unreliable. When they overcome all those issues, I'll drink the cordial.

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6 hours ago, cobran20 said:

His models are proving better at predicting than mainstream ... Brexit, Trump, European elections next?

The climate one will take longer prove true/false due to the amplitude of the cycle.

What? he takes a both sides bet on everything "trump will win unless they steal it from him". He said the same for Brexit. Pretty hard to be wrong in that scenario...

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1 hour ago, tor said:

What? he takes a both sides bet on everything "trump will win unless they steal it from him". He said the same for Brexit. Pretty hard to be wrong in that scenario...

I think you need to read his post from way back ... a bit more clearly. He always stated that Socrates predicted Brexit and Trump. He also clearly stated that his personal opinion was that it would be sabotaged. I'm sure you can figure out the difference between the two statements, unless your bias blinds you.

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