cobran20

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming Myth Consensus

1300 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, AndersB said:

The paper is not peer review published anywhere yet. It seems to be like a work in progress, so I will reserve my judgement for now.

One of the authors, Jyrki Kauppinen, was an expert reviewer of the IPCC AR5 report: http://www.climatechange2013.org/contributors/reviewers#kl

So I think the academics are fair dinkum.

They previously published an interesting paper: Major Portions in Climate Change: Physical Approach (2011):

http://butler.cc.tut.fi/~trantala/opetus/files/FS-1550.Fysiikan.seminaari/Fileita/J.Kauppinen-IREPHY-21Nov13.pdf

In that paper they claimed that half of the temperature increase over the last century is due to humans (anthropogenic). But they also assessed that climate sensitivity R = dT/dQ to be 0.0863 or 0.0251 K/(Wm2)

That would equate to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would lead to a warming of 0.22 degrees or 0.14 degrees.

For those numbers to be correct there would be no positive feedback loop on the greenhouse gas effect with the increase of CO2. From a pure physics point of view, a doubling of CO2 would have a logarithmic effect. That is, if quantity X extra CO2 causes 1 degree of warming - then you need 2X CO2 for another degree of warming.

The logarithmic effect is not in dispute - it is the feedback loop that is the big issue:

https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html

It is interesting that the authors have changed their view about the warming over the last century from "About one half of the temperature increase was anthropogenic" in 2011 to now claiming that CO2 is causing a fraction of observed global warming (0.1 degrees), of which the anthropogenic component is 0.01 degrees.

Someone's invoked the summon Anders spell. (Anders!, Anders!, Anders!)

To be fair it may have been me.

So to business. Cobran claims (simultaneously) there is no warming whilst quoting data from NOAA. Observed data disagrees with both of your arguments. Even your link to sceptical science claims that logarithmic versus exponential temp rises look similar. It then becomes incumbent on you to explain the difference between observed and your theories? I'm waiting with acute interest. Is it sunspots? BTW "natural variation" won't cut it. That's like believing in Jebus. 

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On 7/13/2019 at 7:25 AM, staringclown said:

Someone's invoked the summon Anders spell. (Anders!, Anders!, Anders!)

To be fair it may have been me.

So to business. Cobran claims (simultaneously) there is no warming whilst quoting data from NOAA. Observed data disagrees with both of your arguments. Even your link to sceptical science claims that logarithmic versus exponential temp rises look similar. It then becomes incumbent on you to explain the difference between observed and your theories? I'm waiting with acute interest. Is it sunspots? BTW "natural variation" won't cut it. That's like believing in Jebus. 

I don't have to explain anything. I'm on the side that says it is all part of a cycle. Your side has to explain why all those globull warming prophecies have failed. Your side is the one that believes their science is unquestionable, yet so many scientists are questioning it.

BTW, I missed this one. Looks like Bluff Knoll officially became a buttf@ck place during that 'mild autumn'  we had:

Quote

...It is the earliest recorded snow event in a calendar year in the state's history...

Why are we getting so much of that ever disappearing white powdery stuff? Is that infallible settled science wrong or should we now add the ABC to the list of known fascist publications?

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18 hours ago, cobran20 said:

The 'F' word makes it to QLD on the 15th. Will QLD also add to the list of buttf@ck places as well?

Queensland shivers through coldest morning of the year

No buttf@ck place declared yet, but Bowen in tropical FNQ sets a globull warming record:

Fifteen cold weather records broken on chilly Queensland morning

Quote

...The warmest record-breaking area in the state was the north Queensland town of Bowen, which only dropped to a low of 6.5 degrees on Monday, but it was enough to tumble the previous record...

All on the dates when the snake oil salesman stated. That elixir he makes must be made of inland taipans!

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5 hours ago, cobran20 said:

and was the the null hypothesis tested?!

Quote

I’ve actually never been able to find a precise statement of the proposition on which the 97% supposedly agree.

That's because your  guy is sh*thouse at using google...

97.1% actually

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On 14/07/2019 at 10:35 AM, cobran20 said:

I don't have to explain anything. I'm on the side that says it is all part of a cycle. Your side has to explain why all those globull warming prophecies have failed. Your side is the one that believes their science is unquestionable, yet so many scientists are questioning it.

BTW, I missed this one. Looks like Bluff Knoll officially became a buttf@ck place during that 'mild autumn'  we had:

Why are we getting so much of that ever disappearing white powdery stuff? Is that infallible settled science wrong or should we now add the ABC to the list of known fascist publications?

That's why I mentioned AndersB. I don't expect you are capable of explaining much at all.

Though I would love to hear your explanation of "why humans have lower vibrations than animals" and how this affects the weather?

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39 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Though I would love to hear your explanation of "why humans have lower vibrations than animals" and how this affects the weather?

Read Gann and you can find out. After all he had a track record in successful market forecasting.

Whilst on the subject of forecasting, how does this match against the predictions of the the Dept of Settled Science vs the two dissenters?

EAST NETHERLANDS RECORDS ITS COLDEST EVER JULY TEMPERATURE

Quote

In the east of Holland, rare July ground frost was measured overnight Wednesday into Thursday as an anomalous cold front replaces Europe’s 3-days of heat. 

At the former Twente airbase, the temperature plunged to -1.6C (29F) on July 04, which, according to Weerplaza weather agency, was a new all-time record-low for the month of July, for the east of the country.

The previous low was -1.5C (29.3F) measured in Gilze and Rijen on July 01, 1984 (solar minimum of cycle 21).

Notice the use of that dirty 'F' word again.

Edited by cobran20

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1 minute ago, cobran20 said:

Read Gann and you can find out. After all he had a track record in successful market forecasting.

Sure. And while I'm at it I'll buy a copy of "The Secret" and will my way to fortune. I guess I'll just have to take your word for it. 

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3 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

That sums up your case perfectly.

Does it? I ask you to explain but there really isn't much point is there?

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3 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Sure. And while I'm at it I'll buy a copy of "The Secret" and will my way to fortune. I guess I'll just have to take your word for it. 

There are plenty of Gann books you can decipher. But I'm happy just monitoring the snake oil salesman's accuracy, which is based on Gann. Needless to say, my money is with him.

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Just now, cobran20 said:

There are plenty of Gann books you can decipher. But I'm happy just monitoring the snake oil salesman's accuracy, which is based on Gann. Needless to say, my money is with him.

I've magic beans going cheap if you're interested?

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4 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Does it? I ask you to explain but there really isn't much point is there?

The pettiness and frustrations are obvious - no explanations required. 

But what about those doomsday failed forecasts from your Dept of Settled Science that taxpayers were put on the hook for?

When will they materialise?

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2 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

The pettiness and frustrations are obvious - no explanations required. 

But what about those doomsday failed forecasts from your Dept of Settled Science that taxpayers were put on the hook for?

When will they materialise?

I thought you were going to ask me the price (of the beans).

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Just now, cobran20 said:

The price so far must be in the $squillions

Because it's you C the bean price will come with a significant discount.

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50 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Because it's you C the bean price will come with a significant discount.

that a fact. In the mean time, more of that 'F' word:

MULTIPLE ALL-TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET ACROSS GERMANY — RARE JULY FROSTS RAVAGE SAXONY

Quote

On the back of the well documented 3-days of heat last week, Germany is now setting multiple new record low temperatures as the anticipated and long-lasting Arctic front begins to take hold.

The mercury in Rotenburg, Lower Saxony plunged to 2.9C (37.2F) on Thursday morning — low enough to break the town’s all-time record cold temperature for the month of July which had stood since 1946, according to wetter.com.

The new record low temperature comes just days after Germany logged an all-time record high — serving as further evidence of the swings-between-extremes brought on by low solar activity and the associated weakening of the jet stream.


SEE ALSO: The Changing Jet Stream


Along with Rotenburg, many other regions of Germany also registered record-low temperatures on Thursday morning.

I’ve listed a few below (data again courtesy of wetter.com):


Quickborn: 4C (39.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1999.
Göttingen: 4C (39.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1996.
Soltau: 4.1C (39.4F) — lowest July temperature since 1986.
Friesoythe: 4.7C (40.5F) –lowest July temperature since 1971.
Lippstadt: 4.8C (40.6F) — lowest July temperature since 1990.
Diepholz: 5.1C (41.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1971.

 

Edited by cobran20

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17 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

Saxony eh? What about the globe?

Earth just had its hottest June on record, on track for warmest July

So how you feeling about the magic bean transaction? First caller in the next 30 minutes gets 1/2 price!

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11 hours ago, staringclown said:

Saxony eh? What about the globe?

Earth just had its hottest June on record, on track for warmest July

So how you feeling about the magic bean transaction? First caller in the next 30 minutes gets 1/2 price!

Well, we can add central Europe, Russia, with a special mention that Poland has been added as a summer buttf@ck place.

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This is what the snake oil salesman has been forecasting for Australia on his FB page, for at least over the last year that I have read his posts, and presumably to his clients for longer:

Drought of 1891 to 1903 reconstructed shows today's conditions likely to have more devastating effects

Naturally, that 1891-1903 Federation drought was also caused by man made climate change! :P

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