cobran20

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming Myth Consensus

649 posts in this topic

On 12/5/2018 at 8:00 AM, cobran20 said:

Note the date on the top right hand side...

46636038_354466331783993_571186730891424

... and here comes the repeat from the shrills. Will the outcome be any different this time?

Greenland's ice sheet is melting at an 'unprecedented' rate and scientists say it is 'off the charts' compared with the last 400 years

and to avoid egg on their faces whilst alive, they provide this brilliant forecast:

Quote

Global sea levels could rise as much as 1.2 metres (4 feet) by 2300 even if we meet the 2015 Paris climate goals, scientists have warned...

Considering the accuracy of their forecast over the last 30 years, their long range one towards 2300 can only be classified as pure, unadulterated BS!

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On 06/12/2018 at 0:58 PM, cobran20 said:

The irony is too much. Fossil fuel use to save citizens from ... global cooling! :-)

Britain’s oldest coal plants called on to avoid running out of power as cold sets in

Do a search for any other "news" about coal saving the day. You won't find any. Only a telegraph article that I can't fully read unless I subscribe which seems to be claiming that the price per megawatt hour for coal is uncompetitive with other sources.

The majority of articles on a search "britain coal power national grid" show links to how long the grid was able to operate without any coal over summer. 

Here's a site that monitors the national grid generation. Last reading coal was providing 0.8% of the total generation. 

 

Edited by staringclown
wrong link

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World Meteorological Organisation report 2018

Quote

Highlights of the provisional statement on the state of the climate

Temperatures: 2018 started with a weak La Niña event, which continued until March. By October, however, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Tropical Pacific were showing signs of a return to El Niño conditions, although the atmosphere as yet shows little response. If El Niño develops, 2019 is likely to be warmer than 2018.

Greenhouse gases:  In 2017, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations reached new highs, according to WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Data from a number of locations, including Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Cape Grim (Tasmania) indicate that they continued to increase in 2018.

Oceans: The oceans absorb more than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases and 25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, making them warmer and more acidic. For each 3-month period until September 2018, ocean heat content was the highest or second highest on record. Global Mean Sea Level from January to July 2018 was around 2 to 3 mm higher than the same period in 2017.

Sea ice: Arctic sea-ice extent was well below average throughout 2018 with record-low levels in the first two months of the year. The annual maximum occurred in mid-March and was the third lowest on record. The minimum extent in September was the 6th smallest on record, meaning that all 12 smallest September extents have been in the past 12 years. Antarctic sea-ice extent was also well below average throughout 2018. The annual minimum extent occurred in late February and was ranked as one of the two lowest extents.

 

Extreme Weather

Tropical Storms:  The number of tropical cyclones was above average in all four Northern Hemisphere basins, with 70 reported by 20 November, compared to the long-term average of 53, leading to many casualties. The Northeast Pacific basin was especially active, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy that was the highest since reliable satellite records began.

Two of the strongest tropical cyclones were Mangkhut, which impacted the Philippines, Hong Kong SAR and China, and Yutu, which brought devastation in the Mariana Islands. Jebi was the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since 1993, Son-Tinh caused flooding in Viet Nam and Laos, whilst Soulik contributed to flooding on the Korean peninsula. Hurricanes Florence and Michael were associated with huge economic damage and considerable loss of life in the United States. Gita, in the South Pacific, was the most intense and most expensive cyclone to ever hit Tonga.

Floods and rainfall: In August, the southwest Indian state of Kerala suffered the worst flooding since the 1920s, displacing more than 1.4 million people from their homes and affecting more than 5.4 million. Large parts of western Japan experienced destructive flooding in late June and early July, killing at least 230 people and destroying thousands of homes. Flooding affected many parts of east Africa in March and April. This included Kenya and Somalia, which had previously been suffering from severe drought, as well as Ethiopia and northern and central Tanzania.  An intense low-pressure system in the Mediterranean Sea in late October brought flooding, high winds and loss of life.

Heatwaves and drought: Large parts of Europe experienced exceptional heat and drought through the late spring and summer of 2018, leading to wildfires in Scandinavia. In July and August, there were numerous record high temperatures north of the Arctic Circle, and record long runs of warm temperatures., including 25 consecutive days above 25 °C in Helsinki (Finland). Parts of Germany had a long spell of days above 30°C, whilst a heatwave in France was associated with a number of deaths.  It was also an exceptionally warm and dry period in the United Kingdom and Ireland. A short but intense heatwave affected Spain and Portugal in early August.

Dry conditions were especially persistent in Germany, the Czech Republic, western Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and parts of France. The Rhine approached record low flows by mid-October, seriously disrupting river transport.

Eastern Australia experienced significant drought during 2018, especially New South Wales and southern Queensland, with much of the region receiving less than half its average rainfall for the period from January to September.  Severe drought affected Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina, in late 2017 and early 2018, leading to heavy agricultural losses.

Both Japan and the Republic of Korea saw new national heat records (41.1 °C and 41.0°C respectively.)

Oman reported one of the highest known minimum overnight temperature of 42.6 °C in June. Algeria saw a new national of 51.3 °C in July.

Cold and snow: One of the most significant cold outbreaks of recent years affected Europe in late February and early March.

Wildfires: Major wildfires affected Athens (Greece) on 23 July, with many fatalities. British Columbia in Canada broke its record for the most area burned in a fire season for the second successive year. California suffered devastating wildfires, with November’s Camp Fire being the deadliest fire in over a century for the U.S.A.

 

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3 hours ago, staringclown said:

Do a search for any other "news" about coal saving the day. You won't find any. Only a telegraph article that I can't fully read unless I subscribe which seems to be claiming that the price per megawatt hour for coal is uncompetitive with other sources.

The majority of articles on a search "britain coal power national grid" show links to how long the grid was able to operate without any coal over summer. 

Here's a site that monitors the national grid generation. Last reading coal was providing 0.8% of the total generation. 

 

Coal was removed as a main source of energy during the Thatcher years when she smashed the unions. What the article shows is that under pressure, they still need fossil based sources - renewables don't have the reliability to be available 24x7x365.

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3 hours ago, staringclown said:

An IPCC report. Regarding:

Quote

...Eastern Australia experienced significant drought during 2018, especially New South Wales and southern Queensland, with much of the region receiving less than half its average rainfall for the period from January to September...

Have they claimed that to be as a result of global warming or cooling? I only know of two dissenting (and reliable) sources that have predicted such outcome ... and as a result of cooling!

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8 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Coal was removed as a main source of energy during the Thatcher years when she smashed the unions. What the article shows is that under pressure, they still need fossil based sources - renewables don't have the reliability to be available 24x7x365.

Is that news? 1/3 of the power is generated by gas. A less polluting fossil fuel than coal. By 2025 there will be no coal at all because it is not competitive and polluting. It's winter. It's cold and more demand is created by heating requirements. Only the telegraph bothered with this non-news story.

Governments role is to determine the rules for the market. AKA reliable supply with low carbon emissions. The market can then work to determine the most efficient delivery of energy under the rules. The company that innovates and delivers the lowest cost under the rules gets more business. The others follow suit. Big coal goes bust or adapts. Bingo, in a few years time everyone wonders what all the fuss was about. 

The problem is governments that are bought and paid for by big coal representing big coal trying to hold back the tide. 

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8 hours ago, cobran20 said:

An IPCC report. Regarding:

Have they claimed that to be as a result of global warming or cooling? I only know of two dissenting (and reliable) sources that have predicted such outcome ... and as a result of cooling!

That's why I say there can be no bet. The outcome is the same. The cause is the only thing that is different. If the planet keeps warming, you're wrong. If it cools you're right. The problem is that you don't accept ANY measure of temperature except newspaper articles that agree with your preconceptions. Even though the sources of the newspaper articles are the same people that measure the temperatures that I rely on for my arguments.  It's the same data as I've shown again and again. You post an article about record snowfall in Central Park and there it is on the record. There is no conspiracy among weather bureaus and this fact is backed up by the very articles that you cite.

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1 hour ago, staringclown said:

Is that news? 1/3 of the power is generated by gas. A less polluting fossil fuel than coal. By 2025 there will be no coal at all because it is not competitive and polluting. It's winter. It's cold and more demand is created by heating requirements. Only the telegraph bothered with this non-news story.

Governments role is to determine the rules for the market. AKA reliable supply with low carbon emissions. The market can then work to determine the most efficient delivery of energy under the rules. The company that innovates and delivers the lowest cost under the rules gets more business. The others follow suit. Big coal goes bust or adapts. Bingo, in a few years time everyone wonders what all the fuss was about. 

The problem is governments that are bought and paid for by big coal representing big coal trying to hold back the tide. 

or the rule could be reliable and low cost electricity supply with no subsidies for anybody. Have you forgotten that countries compete with each other for manufactured products. Those with high input costs are at a natural disadvantage.

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45 minutes ago, staringclown said:

That's why I say there can be no bet. The outcome is the same. The cause is the only thing that is different. If the planet keeps warming, you're wrong. If it cools you're right. The problem is that you don't accept ANY measure of temperature except newspaper articles that agree with your preconceptions. Even though the sources of the newspaper articles are the same people that measure the temperatures that I rely on for my arguments.  It's the same data as I've shown again and again. You post an article about record snowfall in Central Park and there it is on the record. There is no conspiracy among weather bureaus and this fact is backed up by the very articles that you cite.

The frosts that are occurring, impacting soft commodities, has only been predicted by one group that I know of. A very clear difference there.

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3 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

or the rule could be reliable and low cost electricity supply with no subsidies for anybody. Have you forgotten that countries compete with each other for manufactured products. Those with high input costs are at a natural disadvantage.

US has no issues with tariffs at the moment to combat such advantage. Most countries have signed up to the Paris accord. I think I see a solution.

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6 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

The frosts that are occurring, impacting soft commodities, has only been predicted by one group that I know of. A very clear difference there.

And where do your news articles get their information regarding frosts?

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4 minutes ago, staringclown said:

And where do your news articles get their information regarding frosts?

Local weather news I would expect. With the agrarian news, it is confirmed with interviews of farmers about their low crop yields.

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38 minutes ago, staringclown said:

Well, what a lovely graph that is ... of a mere 18 years. So how long are the cycles of expansion & contraction? Did you not read that article from 1952 I posted a few days ago. If that trend would have continued, ice would have been gone long ago and it didn't. NASA's report published a few days ago states that their predictions are not going to plan. Looking forward to their update around late Feb when the winter is in full swing.

This is like their famous prediction in the year 2000 of snow will become rare to now 50 year records of snow cover being broken.

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3 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

Local weather news I would expect. With the agrarian news, it is confirmed with interviews of farmers about their low crop yields.

And where does the local weather news get their information. Do you imagine they have a man in the field with a thermometer and a measuring tape?

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Just now, staringclown said:

And where does the local weather news get their information. Do you imagine they have a man in the field with a thermometer and a measuring tape?

From the bureau. Some farmers provide their own readings to the  agrarian news.

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1 minute ago, cobran20 said:

Well, what a lovely graph that is ... of a mere 18 years. So how long are the cycles of expansion & contraction? Did you not read that article from 1952 I posted a few days ago. If that trend would have continued, ice would have been gone long ago and it didn't. NASA's report published a few days ago states that their predictions are not going to plan. Looking forward to their update around late Feb when the winter is in full swing.

This is like their famous prediction in the year 2000 of snow will become rare to now 50 year records of snow cover being broken.

Sorry? The NASA predictions say no such thing. They state explicitly that the new data may slow the long term decline but not stop it.

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1 minute ago, cobran20 said:

From the bureau. Some farmers provide their own readings to the  agrarian news.

Which farmers? And under what conditions? Are they trained? Are they measuring snow drifts against their barn doors? Is anecdotal farmers evidence standardised? 

I don't think so. You were right the first time. They get their data from the bureau. Same data as I cite for my record hot versus cold ratio. 

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13 minutes ago, staringclown said:

US has no issues with tariffs at the moment to combat such advantage. Most countries have signed up to the Paris accord. I think I see a solution.

except for some major key countries that make all the difference - China (except for HK, Macau), the US and Russia

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