cobran20

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming Myth Consensus

395 posts in this topic

A more current prediction.

Arctic ice 'is at tipping point'

Quote

Irrespective of whether the 2007 record falls in the next few weeks, the long-term trend is obvious, scientists said; the ice is declining more sharply than even a decade ago, and the Arctic region will progressively turn to open water in summers.

A few years ago, scientists were predicting ice-free Arctic summers by about 2080.

Then computer models started projecting earlier dates, around 2030 to 2050; and some researchers now believe it could happen within five years.

 

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On 9/24/2018 at 10:10 PM, AndersB said:

The IPCC alarming projections for global warming have not been matched by observations over the last 15 years.

Here is a good chart:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSSAnd an a more recent satellite global temperature measurement chart is here:

UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2018_v6-550x317.

 

Anders! :) How's brexit treating you? 

Dr Roy is an interesting chap. An advocate of intelligent design. Rush Limbaughs climate scientist. The modern day Gallileo.

There are a multitude of rebuttals for his cloud cover theses and UAH microwave temp measures available on the web. Here's just a few.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.1

https://bbickmore.wordpress.com/roy-spencer/

https://principia-scientific.org/skeptical-arguments-that-don-t-hold-water-pierre-latour-s-rebuttal/

No need to go into them here. I doubt many people have that much stamina. ^_^

One interesting point from your post is that the good doctor himself states:

Quote

If I am correct (explanation #1), then we will continue to see little warming into the future. Additional evidence for lower climate sensitivity in the above plot is the observed response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: the temporary temperature dip in 1992-93, and subsequent recovery, is weaker in the observations than in the models. This is exactly what would be predicted with lower climate sensitivity.

On the other hand, if Trenberth is correct (explanation #2), then there should be a period of rapid surface warming that resumes at some point, since the climate system must eventually try to achieve radiative energy equilibrium. Of course, exactly when that might be is unknown.

The trend on the UAH seems pretty clear. At what point will he concede the point to Trenberth?

I offer again the relatively benign option for the five year measure of the ratio of warm to cool records broken. (no modelling bias - just thermometers in discrete locations) as the measure of warming?

Edited by staringclown
clarity

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7 hours ago, AndersB said:

Well, weather is not climate and one cannot make predictions about long term global climate change just by just looking at a few data points.

I do believe that I have made the exact point numerous times and yet cobran keeps posting weather reports. Good luck.

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12 hours ago, staringclown said:

I do believe that I have made the exact point numerous times and yet cobran keeps posting weather reports. Good luck.

Yes, weather reports on both hemispheres confirming 'surprises' to the downside and droughts consistent with the global cooling predictions made by people like Armstrong. Some of those surprises have not been 'minor' either. I wonder what the law of supply & demand will then do to soft commodity prices. If this repeats in following years and NASA continues to declare that we're warming, then why would you not question what they publish? How can those two events not be mutually exclusive?

BTW, have a look at the extract from the article the guy from the Indigo FB site published on the Commodities magazine years ago. The predictions he made have a 'yellow' background. How do they compare to Flannery's? That is the difference in having skin in the game!

 

 

 

 

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I'm facing another super typhoon on Sunday. 3 weeks since the last one? Probably just weather.

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17 hours ago, cobran20 said:

It qualifies as a daily mail news article...

 

 

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39 minutes ago, staringclown said:

It qualifies as a daily mail news article...

 

 

So you mean it fluctuates rather than it only moves in a linear fashion towards total melting? It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of years, when they're getting this 'weather' just as summer finishes.

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On 9/12/2018 at 8:02 PM, cobran20 said:

Glad the money being wasted amuses you. So how are those predictions coming along made by your gurus. Let's take rising sea levels. This is all new, is it?

Also please tell me how events like this, this & this as examples are consistent with the globull warming theory? Perhaps we can go local and you can explain how the current drought is consistent with globull warming theory, since an increase in heat would increase sea evaporation leading to torrential rains like in tropical areas. Somehow such theory is failing to predict the actual climate, but effects low solar sunspots seem to be spot on. Is this why globull warming was renamed 'climate change', since climate never changed before?

But your massive understanding needs to be demonstrated. So why not make predictions on this thread that we can record & measure? You can even put your current gurus' predictions and we can measure actual vs forecast. Please don't quote things that can take decades to measure as that is just insulting everybody's intelligence since any moron can say that as everybody will be dead by then. Keep it to the next 10 years.

Your specific predictions will be matched against this one from Armstrong, which I expect we will know the answer within 5 years:

... This downturn in global cooling will spark a rise in food prices on the horizon. ...

weather or climate?

South Australian Government formally acknowledges drought for first time

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weather, climate ... or natural cycle?

The Chill of Solar Minimum

Quote

... “We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”...

 

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On 27/09/2018 at 7:02 PM, staringclown said:

 

Anders! :) How's brexit treating you? 

Dr Roy is an interesting chap. An advocate of intelligent design. Rush Limbaughs climate scientist. The modern day Gallileo.

There are a multitude of rebuttals for his cloud cover theses and UAH microwave temp measures available on the web. Here's just a few.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.1

https://bbickmore.wordpress.com/roy-spencer/

https://principia-scientific.org/skeptical-arguments-that-don-t-hold-water-pierre-latour-s-rebuttal/

No need to go into them here. I doubt many people have that much stamina. ^_^

One interesting point from your post is that the good doctor himself states:

The trend on the UAH seems pretty clear. At what point will he concede the point to Trenberth?

I offer again the relatively benign option for the five year measure of the ratio of warm to cool records broken. (no modelling bias - just thermometers in discrete locations) as the measure of warming?

Hi staringclown, old mate!

The first two references don't work :(

The last rebuttal is not from a climate scientist.

The latest HadCRUT4 temperature data time series seem to match Roy Spencer's measurement data fairly well:

 

 

HadCRUT4.jpg

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This forecast was from March 2018. Winter is over and based on the evidence as per postings I've made, I'd say for this winter at least, the forecast is on the money.

'This is the start of a mini ice age': Climate expert claims Australia faces SEVEN YEARS of freezing winters with snow in places where it's never fallen - followed by 'monsoon-like' flooding

Doesn't look as if he is a globull warmist! :rolleyes:

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21 hours ago, cobran20 said:

They're very slow to refresh. I managed to download them (see attached)

jcli-d-13-00767.1.pdf

jtech-d-16-0121.1.pdf

Not sure I fully understood those two papers. My impression is that the are talking about minor discrepancies depending on how you measure things, which would affect (introduce bias) in Spencer's conclusions.

This measurement thing is tricky. Do you only account for surface temperatures or do you look into the heat content deep down into the oceans as well? Near the poles there can be extreme temperature swings from -20 to -60 degrees. What weighting do you give these measurements compared to points of the globe near the equator? It is difficult to come up with a consistent global temperature index, which is why the measuring institutions keep changing the way they construct the temperature data. What is unforgivable is that there are cases where some of these institutions have deleted original raw data. WTF?

Still, as the HadCRUT4 data shows, observations in recent years are below, or at the very lowest, of all the IPCC published model projections. My guess is that this divergence will become increasingly obvious in the next few years.

My view is still that CO2 causes warming, and that Lindzen is probably correct that the global temperature sensitivity is probably around 0.5 to 0.8 degrees for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, and I haven't seen a credible rebuttal of Linzen's position yet. That level of sensitivity is not alarming, and the anthropogenic component of overall CO2 emissions on earth is in the small single digit percentages.

This level of warming effect is very likely to be overwhelmed by other climatic forces, such as the variability of the sun's total irradiance. We could indeed be facing decades of cooling, which unfortunately is not being prepared for by governments, nor the public.

It is only nutters like myself that try to arrange permanent living in two hemispheres for eternal summers :)

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I'm just going into the next super typhoon after one of the highest summers ever here in Japan and the biggest typhoon in some big number of years. And you know what? I don't give a sh*t whether global warming is true or not.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-defies-skeptics-sends-industry-bananas-over-performance-38273/

This is what I care about.

And it makes money. More than dumb arse sh*t from a century ago.

Global warming is great because True or Not if we act on it we get cool sh*t.

I know Cobran will be strangulating with "what about the boondoggles and the fakers and the whatever" but who gives a f*ck? the military and social welfare have the same sh*t and we don't get cool sh*t from them.

I say Cobran should be asking for stops to _all_subsidies based on a timeline. If coal or farming or whatever have had subsidies for X years at X value then stop it now and let all the new sh*t get the same subsidies for the same period. Seems fair.

I don't care about subsidies. I don't care about waste. I don't care about someone getting more money than me but being sh*t/liar/whatever.

I care about us having energy. Schroedinger defined life getting better by have more enery (loosely speaking) in his speech where he suspected DNA existed back in the 30's. I find it hard to see any argument better than that.

And now for scotch and a typhoon. Probably survive, I'm in an expensive building. If it falls down I promise to at least try and scream "f*ck all you myopic c**ts - including you cobran" as I fall to my death.

If some robot saves me from the ruins I will say straight to camera "I f*cking meant that, you myopic c**ts"

Just because someone has to keep the aussie identity alive and as usual a kiwi probably does it better.

 

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1 hour ago, tor said:

I'm just going into the next super typhoon after one of the highest summers ever here in Japan and the biggest typhoon in some big number of years. And you know what? I don't give a sh*t whether global warming is true or not.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-defies-skeptics-sends-industry-bananas-over-performance-38273/

This is what I care about.

And it makes money. More than dumb arse sh*t from a century ago.

Global warming is great because True or Not if we act on it we get cool sh*t.

I know Cobran will be strangulating with "what about the boondoggles and the fakers and the whatever" but who gives a f*ck? the military and social welfare have the same sh*t and we don't get cool sh*t from them.

I say Cobran should be asking for stops to _all_subsidies based on a timeline. If coal or farming or whatever have had subsidies for X years at X value then stop it now and let all the new sh*t get the same subsidies for the same period. Seems fair.

I don't care about subsidies. I don't care about waste. I don't care about someone getting more money than me but being sh*t/liar/whatever.

I care about us having energy. Schroedinger defined life getting better by have more enery (loosely speaking) in his speech where he suspected DNA existed back in the 30's. I find it hard to see any argument better than that.

And now for scotch and a typhoon. Probably survive, I'm in an expensive building. If it falls down I promise to at least try and scream "f*ck all you myopic c**ts - including you cobran" as I fall to my death.

If some robot saves me from the ruins I will say straight to camera "I f*cking meant that, you myopic c**ts"

Just because someone has to keep the aussie identity alive and as usual a kiwi probably does it better.

 

Does your 'f*ck all you...' include those that can least afford the high electricity prices? I guess not as long as you get you cool sh!t.

If that battery is so good, then it should stand on its own without any subsidies, just like the steam and then internal combustion engines did.

BTW, that battery only stores electricity rather than generate it. So can you tell us how long will it keep the lights on throughout Adelaide if it gets another blackout like a couple of years ago?

... but why should minor details get in the way of getting your cool sh!t.

Naturally this article will be totally irrelevant to your myopic mindset

Yes, Solar And Wind Really Do Increase Electricity Prices -- And For Inherently Physical Reasons

Perhaps you should start a family and charge only the average Australian wage to your customers. It might remove you that dopey ivory tower that you seem to live on.

Edited by cobran20

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2 hours ago, tor said:

I'm just going into the next super typhoon after one of the highest summers ever here in Japan and the biggest typhoon in some big number of years. And you know what? I don't give a sh*t whether global warming is true or not.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-defies-skeptics-sends-industry-bananas-over-performance-38273/

This is what I care about.

And it makes money. More than dumb arse sh*t from a century ago.

Global warming is great because True or Not if we act on it we get cool sh*t.

I know Cobran will be strangulating with "what about the boondoggles and the fakers and the whatever" but who gives a f*ck? the military and social welfare have the same sh*t and we don't get cool sh*t from them.

I say Cobran should be asking for stops to _all_subsidies based on a timeline. If coal or farming or whatever have had subsidies for X years at X value then stop it now and let all the new sh*t get the same subsidies for the same period. Seems fair.

I don't care about subsidies. I don't care about waste. I don't care about someone getting more money than me but being sh*t/liar/whatever.

I care about us having energy. Schroedinger defined life getting better by have more enery (loosely speaking) in his speech where he suspected DNA existed back in the 30's. I find it hard to see any argument better than that.

And now for scotch and a typhoon. Probably survive, I'm in an expensive building. If it falls down I promise to at least try and scream "f*ck all you myopic c**ts - including you cobran" as I fall to my death.

If some robot saves me from the ruins I will say straight to camera "I f*cking meant that, you myopic c**ts"

Just because someone has to keep the aussie identity alive and as usual a kiwi probably does it better.

 

I love cyclones. In fact any severe event. Enjoy yourself. Stock up on drugs and booze. Make sure you get some booze that is suitable for drinking warm.

The view from my house in PNG. 

 

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Weather or climate ... and on both hemispheres. Excuse some of the Google translate errors:

Germany - The coldest September night since the beginning of the measurement

A cold record in Poland has been made

The Netherlands - Coldest September night in 47 years

India - record snowfall

Canada - ‘Disbelief’ as snow hits and northern Alberta farmers scramble to save crops worth millions

Heavy snowfall forecast for Iceland - ...And only once in history has this been topped, when snowfall in the city reached 55cm in January 1937..

New Zealand – 100,000 lambs lost to cold and rain

The Maldives have been attempting to sink since at least 1837!

Doesn't look as if half of the world will be turned into Atlantis by 2024?

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12 minutes ago, cobran20 said:

Weather or climate ... and on both hemispheres. Excuse some of the Google translate errors:

Germany - The coldest September night since the beginning of the measurement

A cold record in Poland has been made

The Netherlands - Coldest September night in 47 years

India - record snowfall

Canada - ‘Disbelief’ as snow hits and northern Alberta farmers scramble to save crops worth millions

Heavy snowfall forecast for Iceland - ...And only once in history has this been topped, when snowfall in the city reached 55cm in January 1937..

New Zealand – 100,000 lambs lost to cold and rain

The Maldives have been attempting to sink since at least 1837!

Doesn't look as if half of the world will be turned into Atlantis by 2024?

My mother was born in 1925. She told me stories of her grandparents when they were children. Sometimes frost could came early, like in August-September. When that happened the whole family had to work in the field all night in the freezing cold. They had a long rope between them and bent the crops gently with it as they walked up and down the field all night to try to prevent the stalks from freezing. If they couldn't save the harvest they would starve that coming winter.

The mini ice age in the mid to late 1800s caused famine in Sweden and contributed to a quarter of the Swedish population to migrate to America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_emigration_to_the_United_States

 

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3 hours ago, AndersB said:

My mother was born in 1925. She told me stories of her grandparents when they were children. Sometimes frost could came early, like in August-September. When that happened the whole family had to work in the field all night in the freezing cold. They had a long rope between them and bent the crops gently with it as they walked up and down the field all night to try to prevent the stalks from freezing. If they couldn't save the harvest they would starve that coming winter.

The mini ice age in the mid to late 1800s caused famine in Sweden and contributed to a quarter of the Swedish population to migrate to America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_emigration_to_the_United_States

 

No need to worry about that any more. It will be hawaiian shirts 24/7/365 in Sweden soon if the globull warmists are correct .... IF

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