cobran20

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming Myth Consensus

406 posts in this topic

Oz snow: One of the best seasons this century

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...The long-term average peak snow depth at Spencers Creek is just shy of two metres. However, most years in the 21st century have topped out below this mark - a trend that is in line with the background rise in global surface temperatures.

While this year's peak depth (224.6cm) was lower than last year (240.9cm), it's still better than every other year since 2005 and the fourth highest this century.

While Australia's snow season is, on average, getting shorter and the peak depths are declining, the last two years have shown that there's a lot of variability from year to year. Even when most of NSW is experiencing a drought, snowfalls can be prolific in the alps.

was the drought and cold weather mentioned predicted by Armstrong/Socrates (and the Indigo Jones site) or the myriad of globull warming expert scientists?

Could that 'last two years' comment possibly be related to this article I posted before?

Did You Know the Greatest Two-Year Global Cooling Event Just Took Place?

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Has anybody posted an explanation as to how this is consistent with global warming  ... and summer is barely finished?

Snow is falling in Alberta, the biggest round is still ahead

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...The city of Edmonton (reported at Edmonton International Airport YEG) has actually experienced its snowiest September on record, with six consecutive days of snowfall and over 20 cm reported in total as of Friday. That beat the previous record of 12.9 cm back in 1965...

 

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1 hour ago, zaph said:

Surely you're not serious?

 

I think he is. Every time I post something not rebutting his arguments but instead commenting on his frame of mind he does a series of posts. Therefore I think this is a deep seated belief that most of the time he doesn't even remember to post about (it is so obvious to him that reading an article doesn't make him want to post until he is reminded we don't actually agree with him). Interesting mindset to play with.

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5 hours ago, zaph said:

Surely you're not serious?

 

Of course. Love to hear from you how all the articles on current weather around the world I've posted, including the one about the last 2 years cooling event is consistent with the warming religion we're supposed to blindly accept? I'm sure our farmers whose crop is being devastated by cold & drought want to hear your explanation as to where the water evaporation leading to rain has gone, which you would expect from a warm climate like in the tropics? Feel free to go all the way and also explain how the 'best' available scientific predictions as far back as 1989 that I have posted could get it so wrong, which was used as reason for the major overhaul in energy source changes?

Do tell by all means? We'll added it to the transcript to be reviewed in 5 years.

Tor, please don't hold back either. That 5 year review of fact vs BS should be a hoot! :D

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5 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Of course. Love to hear from you how all the articles on current weather around the world I've posted, including the one about the last 2 years cooling event is consistent with the warming religion we're supposed to blindly accept? I'm sure our farmers whose crop is being devastated by cold & drought want to hear your explanation as to where the water evaporation leading to rain has gone, which you would expect from a warm climate like in the tropics? Feel free to go all the way and also explain how the 'best' available scientific predictions as far back as 1989 that I have posted could get it so wrong, which was used as reason for the major overhaul in energy source changes?

Do tell by all means? We'll added it to the transcript to be reviewed in 5 years.

Tor, please don't hold back either. That 5 year review of fact vs BS should be a hoot! :D

Firstly, I'll post specifically in reply to your post

"Has anybody posted an explanation as to how this is consistent with global warming  ... and summer is barely finished?

Snow is falling in Alberta, the biggest round is still ahead"

Just because one area is experiencing record a cold event(s) doesn't prove or disprove anything. Just as an area experiencing a record hot event(s) doesn't prove or disprove anything. I find it astounding that you think it does. 

Something about a swallow and summer. 

You heckle the warming religion, but it seems your religion is anti warming. 

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6 hours ago, zaph said:

Firstly, I'll post specifically in reply to your post

"Has anybody posted an explanation as to how this is consistent with global warming  ... and summer is barely finished?

Snow is falling in Alberta, the biggest round is still ahead"

Just because one area is experiencing record a cold event(s) doesn't prove or disprove anything. Just as an area experiencing a record hot event(s) doesn't prove or disprove anything. I find it astounding that you think it does. 

Something about a swallow and summer. 

You heckle the warming religion, but it seems your religion is anti warming. 

You have noticed that I have posted articles about both hemispheres haven't you?

You have noticed that the media calls just about every fluctuation in weather as yet another proof of climate change (as it never did before), yet these articles I have mentioned get little publicity as they probably are seen as the real 'Inconvenient Truth' that Gore never wrote about?

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6 hours ago, cobran20 said:

You have noticed that I have posted articles about both hemispheres haven't you?

You have noticed that the media calls just about every fluctuation in weather as yet another proof of climate change (as it never did before), yet these articles I have mentioned get little publicity as they probably are seen as the real 'Inconvenient Truth' that Gore never wrote about?

back to your post

 

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On 9/20/2018 at 9:43 PM, cobran20 said:

we can add Germany to the list as well:

Quote

... Merkel is now seeking to balance environmental goals against the need to protect jobs and keep a lid on electricity prices now at their highest level in years.

“The faster Germany pulls out of coal, the more expensive it’s going to be and we’re not talking about negligible costs,” 

 

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10 hours ago, AndersB said:

The IPCC alarming projections for global warming have not been matched by observations over the last 15 years.

Here is a good chart:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSSAnd an a more recent satellite global temperature measurement chart is here:

UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2018_v6-550x317.

You do realise that you will now be burnt at the stake for blasphemy!

How would you rate this prediction from the NYT:

The End of Snow?

against this reality?

 

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On 9/12/2018 at 8:02 PM, cobran20 said:

Your specific predictions will be matched against this one from Armstrong, which I expect we will know the answer within 5 years:

Quote

... This downturn in global cooling will spark a rise in food prices on the horizon. ...

Potato crops hit by frost

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14 minutes ago, zaph said:

WTF x 2

 

What's so difficult to understand? It is very simple!

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NORTH POLE MELTING.
MANY GLACIERS VANISHED.
Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warming up, with the prospect of a great climatic change in that part of the world?...

When was the above published? 07-April-1923

:laugh:

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On 9/24/2018 at 10:10 PM, AndersB said:

The IPCC alarming projections for global warming have not been matched by observations over the last 15 years.

Here is a good chart:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSSAnd an a more recent satellite global temperature measurement chart is here:

UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2018_v6-550x317.

When will Tim Flannery say sorry?

Quote

On the warming pause, now 17 years:

The discrepancy between simulated and observed GMST trends during 1998–2012 could be explained in part by a tendency for some CMIP5 models to simulate stronger warming in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentration than is consistent with observations… Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus.

Remember, all these quotes come not from sceptics but from the IPCC, the United Nations body most responsible for spreading panic about global warming - and the body with a strong vested interest in keeping that panic alive.

 

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On 31/01/2010 at 11:32 PM, AndersB said:

That paper seems to be a good overview of what the climate sensitivity models, as published in Nature, have predicted. Figure 3 really says it all in the paper. The general consensus for the models were around 3oC for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. This is also what IPCC reported in the 2007 4AR.

Ah! I've been confusing feedback factors and climate sensitivity!

So, the IPCC models have generally suggested a climate sensitivity of 3oC for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (also in agreement with the Knutti & Hegerl paper), whereas Lindzen estimates the sensitity to be 0.5oC. This is where I got a factor of 6 from!

OK, so it is incorrect to claim that scientists believe that feedback loops causes 6 times the temperature rise than what should have been observed by the CO2 greenhouse effect alone.

My mistake.

Still... we are waiting on the next published counter-argument to Lindzen's statement that empirical heat flux measurements suggests a global climate sensitivity of only 0.5oC as opposed to the 3oC model predictions in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

As I mentioned in another old thread from 2010, I think that climate sensitivity is an important factor that has not been fully investigated properly. How much warming will there be for a doubling of CO2 ?

Richard Lindzen is now a retired professor of MIT but he wrote this 2017:

Now, CO2 is not the only anthropogenic greenhouse gas. When all of them are included, the IPCC finds that we are just about at the greenhouse forcing of climate that one expects from a doubling of CO2, and the temperature increase has been about 0.8C. "Sensitivity," by convention, generally refers to the temperature increase produced by a doubling of CO2 when the system reaches equilibrium. If man‘s emissions are responsible for all of the temperature change over that past sixty years, this still points to a lower sensitivity than is produced by the least sensitive models (which claim to have sensitivities of from 1.5 to 4.5C for a doubling of CO2). And the lower sensitivities are understood to be unproblematic. However, the IPCC only claims man is responsible for most of the warming. The sensitivity might then be much lower.

The article is published here:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12129-017-9669-x

Full article text can be found here:

https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/115153

 

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10 hours ago, AndersB said:

As I mentioned in another old thread from 2010, I think that climate sensitivity is an important factor that has not been fully investigated properly. How much warming will there be for a doubling of CO2 ?

Richard Lindzen is now a retired professor of MIT but he wrote this 2017:

 

 

The article is published here:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12129-017-9669-x

Full article text can be found here:

https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/115153

 

10 hours ago, AndersB said:

As I mentioned in another old thread from 2010, I think that climate sensitivity is an important factor that has not been fully investigated properly. How much warming will there be for a doubling of CO2 ?

Richard Lindzen is now a retired professor of MIT but he wrote this 2017:

 

 

The article is published here:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12129-017-9669-x

Full article text can be found here:

https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/115153

 

gardiner.jpg

:)

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Honey pot is empty as apiarists smashed by drought

Quote

... He’s never seen the honey position so bad in 32 years of beekeeping...

UK weather winter MEGA-FREEZE: 'Imminent' El Nino event will spark BLIZZARDS of HEAVY SNOW

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... the UK could be facing four months of heavy snow, brutal ice storms and scourging Arctic gales...

... Worrying similarities have emerged to the big freeze of 2010/11 which brought the coldest December since records began in 1910...

and the sunspot bottom is not due for another 2-4 years!

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3 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Well, weather is not climate and one cannot make predictions about long term global climate change just by just looking at a few data points. But it is interesting to study the 39-year observed global temperature data by Dr Roy Spencer at University of Alabama, Huntsville (shown in a previous post).

What I objected to back in the day is that these simple data points were then used as evidence of catastrophic global warming - and that humans were entirely to blame. The shoe is on the other foot now, which you demonstrate with your posts cobran20. However, they don't provide any evidence of a change in climate trends yet. But these cold weather examples do show that earlier predictions about future weather were completely wrong.

An example of such catastrophism predictions was made by Dr David Viner who in 2000 stated:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.  “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-snow-is/news-story/5a16c85680b7cc94f345240a727fb09d

The original article published by the Independent is removed for some strange reason.

I am semi-retired these days, and have set up living arrangements such that I can spend October-February in Australia and the rest of the year in Europe. Looking forward to escape the worst of winters to come!

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5 hours ago, AndersB said:

Well, weather is not climate and one cannot make predictions about long term global climate change just by just looking at a few data points. But it is interesting to study the 39-year observed global temperature data by Dr Roy Spencer at University of Alabama, Huntsville (shown in a previous post).

What I objected to back in the day is that these simple data points were then used as evidence of catastrophic global warming - and that humans were entirely to blame. The shoe is on the other foot now, which you demonstrate with your posts cobran20. However, they don't provide any evidence of a change in climate trends yet. But these cold weather examples do show that earlier predictions about future weather were completely wrong.

An example of such catastrophism predictions was made by Dr David Viner who in 2000 stated:

 

 

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-snow-is/news-story/5a16c85680b7cc94f345240a727fb09d

The original article published by the Independent is removed for some strange reason.

I am semi-retired these days, and have set up living arrangements such that I can spend October-February in Australia and the rest of the year in Europe. Looking forward to escape the worst of winters to come!

As I've said before, I'm not a scientist, but basic logic says that if the climate was warming, then these extreme cold weather events cannot be consistent with the theory. It should be a case of higher highs and higher lows. We get told the facts are irrefutable, yet predictions going back to 1989 (as I've posted the links), have proved to be absolutely false. But we're paying through the nose for them and so far zero accountability for the $squillions wasted when they could have been spent on other areas in real need. It is a shame the 'experts' are not required to put skin on the game as they would be bankrupt by now.

Global warming/Climate change is not so much about climate, but about mass psychology of the sheeple. It is like the share or RE markets, where at extremes, it becomes unlimited bullishness/bearishness. Those advocating cooling & droughts based on low sunspots are proving to be on the money. They represent the contrarians which aligns perfectly with the concept of mass psychology of the sheeple. Years down the track, they will start bleating an endless ice age ahead which will probably coincide  sunspots rising again. The data I keep on sunspots only goes back about 40 years, but it shows lower peaks. If that continues, then that would suggest (to me at least) colder weather for prolonged periods ahead.

Congrats or your semi-retired life. I personally dislike temperature extremes, so I would like to avoid the Sydney summer. Tasmania/NZ's south island would be more preferable spots for me to spend a summer.

1.JPG

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