AndersB

A New World Order? Russia asserting its power

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With credit to Martin Armstrong who has predicted a power shift from the West to the East, we have very interesting developments in Syria.

 

The USA has tried to topple the Assad regime for many years now. I don't know why. Some say it is because it is part of a campaign of spreading the Arab Spring - to introduce American inspired "Freedom and Democracy" to the Middle East. Well, it is a bit naive to think that would happen without a lot of chaos and pain. How did Egypt and Libya work out for ya?

 

Another reason could be that Saudi Arabia and Qatar want a gas pipeline to Europe, the shortest route of which would be through Syria. Such a pipeline would reduce Europe's dependency on Russian gas. Seems like a lot of trouble for a vulnerable pipeline.

 

Still another reason for taking control of Syria could be that Israel wants to safeguard water supply from the north.

 

It is hard to tell what the real reasons are for the war in Syria. It is strange though, that Israel keeps nagging the world community about the dangers of Iran, although ISIS (funded by Saudi Arabia) is much closer to their doorstep and seems much more ruthless and unpredictable. Likewise, Israel is strangely quiet about Saudi Ariabia's influence in the Middle East. Is this a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

 

In any case, Russia seems to have surprised everyone with their speed of engagement and military capability in Syria. Although western media keeps ridiculing purported Russian failures the response from US defense points to taking Russia's show of strength with grave seriousness.

 

I thought it was very strange for Russia to launch 26 missiles from the Caspian Sea to targets in Syria. Warfare is ginormously expensive and the general strategy is to use as cheap a weapon as possible for each target. Long range missiles are very expensive. Clearly, Russia was now just showing off!

 

Western media of course tried to play down the implied threat of these missile strikes. The paradigm of "hopeless old-tech Russian military equipment" was trotted out. It was widely reported that "anonymous US sources" claimed that four out of 26 missiles had landed in a rural part of Iran - ha, ha! Russia missed the whole country! This was vehemently denied by both Russia and Iran. They demanded proof of such claims of failure. So far there has been no response to this demand.

 

But what does precision strikes from the Caspian Sea mean? Russia has direct access to this landlocked sea. Russian submarines undetectable by satellites could launch any number of missiles from there. Syria is far away. Actually, about the same distance as Riyad and the Persian Gulf (and Ankara too).

 

Actions speak louder than words. The day after the missile strikes the US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt withdrew from the Persian Gulf to "undergo maintenance". What an amazing coincidence! Hmmm... maintenance, hey? Also the same day the USA announced that they will withdraw training Syrian rebels.

 

Basically, Russia is saying: "if you want WW3 - go ahead, make my day". If western forces and ME allies (Saudi Arabia) think that taking on Russia will be an easy task, then they need to think twice.

 

Another screaming question is why Russia can take control of the terrorist situation in the ME in mere weeks what the USA has feebly tried to do over several years. Was the USA incapable or was it just indirectly supporting "moderate opposition groups" (the enemy of my enemy...)?

 

As an individual, apart from watching with amazement at political incompetence and media propaganda surrounding all these events, what is left is trying to figure out how to protect investments and trade for profit in this environment.

Edited by AndersB

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If I was Russia and feeling like a bit of a dick I would trot out a media blurb sort of like "For f*cks sake America, every time you overthrow the "evil" by funding the opposition you just create another damn Al Qaeda, you've been doing this for some 60 years. We're here now, we'll fix this sh*t you created which is about to break the EU and you can go back to flag land".

 

I actually suspect it would work quite well as I think westerners in general and americans in particular know very little about the f*ckups the russians did in the same way.

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What will happen next?

 

If the Americans are retreating (while puffing up their posturing, of course) then the Saudis are badly exposed. Their war with Yemen is already taxing their military efforts. At the same time oil prices are low which means their economy is under pressure. Likewise, if there would be an escalation and broadening of conflict (i.e. beginning of WW3) then the Saudis can also kiss goodbye to their sovereign wealth fund reserves.

 

Thus, Saudi Arabia will back off. Funding of Sunni insurgents will reduce and good relations with the new power hegemon will be established. ISIS and other terrorist groups will be on their own and picked off by Russian air strikes.

 

On the other side of the Atlantic, there is now the end period of the Obama legacy finale. Will this Nobel Peace Prize winner [sic] go down in history as starting WW3 and its associated global financial depression?

 

I think this is highly unlikely. The belligerent neocons in the USA need time to regroup and figure out how to counter the new Russian - Iraq - Iran - China power axis (is this the beginning of a new Silk Road economic pact?) . What is happening now is probably way outside of their contingency scenarios. Their scrambling retreat is a testament to that. Better wait for a Trump to pick a fight and be seen as the crazy lunatic and that the voting public should henceforth always elect the approved media candidate.

 

So - this fits in with another Armstrong prediction - the financial markets worldwide will be wildly supported to end the Obama presidency on a high note. See! Voting for the establishment's candidate is good for you. You must love Big Brother!

 

If there is a way to buy the stock index in Iran, then please let me know how to do that.

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Saudi Arabia may be able to accommodate lower oil prices than Russia but are far less resilient.

 

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union Russians suffered through multiple hyperinflations, rampant corruption and gangsterism, two civil wars (Chechnya), many terrorist attacks, severe economic contractions, and low oil prices about 15 years ago. They largely worked through this period without too many civil disturbances. People were used to living on almost nothing. I recall speaking to a woman who lived through the 90s (as a child), and said that her Christmas present was a single piece of chocolate. If you'd like to read more about Russian resilience I suggest reading Dimitry Orlov's blog.

 

Saudi Arabia does not have the same natural assets and their population is used to welfare. The government is already threatening death penalties for "spreading rumours". The House of Saud may fall, and when/if it does may fall very quickly. It will significantly change the dynamics of the Middle East.

 

I read that Israel is happy for conflagration to occur in Syria as they intend to build new settlements in Golan Heights which I understand is, under international law, is still Syrian territory. While the Israeli government can sometimes appear to be psychotic and sadistic, it tends to advance its interests effectively and no doubt is a silent player in this conflict.

 

One thing I found interesting were comments made by Kadyrov, the current Chechen leader/war lord (installed by Putin).

 

https://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/

 

It may be possible that the USA decide to cut Saudi loose, not necessarily walk away from the Middle East, but realign their interests. The UK will never leave the Middle East as they're meddling bastards who still haven't lost the colony/empire mindset.

 

Of course all of that is probably rubbish as I don't pay much attention to what the media reports. :)

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To my knowledge, the Russians have had a naval & air force base in Syria since the Soviet days. Like Crimea, they will not give it up. So the west will have to put up with it (and Assad) as I don't think anybody has the appetite for a full on confrontation with the Russians. I suspect everybody will accept a compromise, where ISIS is destroyed and Assad remains in power, though something will need to be done about the flood of refugees exiting Syria as Europe will not tolerate it indefinitely.

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Saudi Arabia may be able to accommodate lower oil prices than Russia but are far less resilient.

 

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union Russians suffered through multiple hyperinflations, rampant corruption and gangsterism, two civil wars (Chechnya), many terrorist attacks, severe economic contractions, and low oil prices about 15 years ago. They largely worked through this period without too many civil disturbances. People were used to living on almost nothing. I recall speaking to a woman who lived through the 90s (as a child), and said that her Christmas present was a single piece of chocolate. If you'd like to read more about Russian resilience I suggest reading Dimitry Orlov's blog.

 

Saudi Arabia does not have the same natural assets and their population is used to welfare. The government is already threatening death penalties for "spreading rumours". The House of Saud may fall, and when/if it does may fall very quickly. It will significantly change the dynamics of the Middle East.

 

I read that Israel is happy for conflagration to occur in Syria as they intend to build new settlements in Golan Heights which I understand is, under international law, is still Syrian territory. While the Israeli government can sometimes appear to be psychotic and sadistic, it tends to advance its interests effectively and no doubt is a silent player in this conflict.

...

 

Good points about the resilience of the Russian people.

 

Funny you should mention Golan Heights. There is oil in them thar hills:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/08/potentially-game-changing-oil-reserves-discovered-in-israel/

 

Game changer: Israeli officials believe the Golan Heights discovery could supply the Jewish State's oil needs for centuries.

...

Genie Energy is chaired by Howard Jonas and counts among its more notable investors the “former US Vice President Dick Cheney, Michael Steinhardt, Jacob Rothschild, and Rupert Murdoch.”

...

The other key consideration in the development of the potential oil feed is its close proximity to the vicious fighting taking place just over the border in neighboring Syria, where ISIS and other jihadi organizations had been battling the Syrian forces of President Assad and his Iran-backed allies Lebanon-based Hezbollah even before Russia’ recent entry into the regional conflict.

...

Edited by AndersB

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Oil in the Golan Heights seems like a much more plausible reason for all the fighting in Syria.

 

Israel supports Syrian rebels at Golan Heights:

https://www.rt.com/news/212319-israel-helps-syrian-militants/

 

Golan Heights is Israeli occupied territory that the UN still classify as belonging to Syria:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-occupied_territories

 

Hmmm... this oil issue could get sticky.

 

Why the f*ck don't journalists investigate this sort of stuff? Are all mainstream media just mouthpieces for propaganda?

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That's pretty impressive (assuming accuracy claims are valid). If they have half-decent subs with such capability then may pose as much threat as any boomer the US may have in her navy.

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