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cobran20

Will housing bubble pop in 2017?

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The year is of interest as that would fit with Armstrong's views that the SHTF from the end of this year onwards.

 

link

 

 

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I thought prices would bottom between 2018-2022 but that would mean an almighty crash is coming (which is generally less likely than more likely).

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I thought prices would bottom between 2018-2022 but that would mean an almighty crash is coming (which is generally less likely than more likely).

 

I see 2017 as the period during which when the SHTF. I don't expect the timing to be identical for all countries.

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1 hour ago, cobran20 said:

I would be fair to say that nothing major happened in 2017!

Prices went up dramatically in Sydney. That's pretty major. 

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On 1/21/2018 at 3:39 PM, zaph said:

Prices went up dramatically in Sydney. That's pretty major. 

I posted that in context with the title of the thread. Nothing rolled over (at least not noticeably).

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But perhaps it could be a turning point for Sydney:

https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/79668-sydney-stock-remains-high-but-perth-is-the-slowest-selling-market.html

Sydney vacancy rates edge to four year high

I wonder if the government will bend to pressure and introduce incentives for empty-nesters to downsize as well as charge a 'empty dwelling' tax to foreigners?

Using Sydney's 600,000 vacant bedrooms could boost productivity

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Looks more and more that those cycles just arent going to go in a nice direction.

More and more evidence of at least a plateau having been reached. Growth slowing while inflation rising can mean negative real returns.

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On 1/23/2018 at 0:49 PM, cobran20 said:

But perhaps it could be a turning point for Sydney:

https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/79668-sydney-stock-remains-high-but-perth-is-the-slowest-selling-market.html

Sydney vacancy rates edge to four year high

I wonder if the government will bend to pressure and introduce incentives for empty-nesters to downsize as well as charge a 'empty dwelling' tax to foreigners?

Using Sydney's 600,000 vacant bedrooms could boost productivity

I warned you all when my mortgage went to zero that interest rates will rise :)

I warn you now that I am selling Australian real estate and buying Japanese with half the proceeds early next year.

I suggest you don't emulate me as this is another stupid idea but if you are a follower of the "person that hasn't f*cked up yet" that is the move hehehehe

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On 3/14/2018 at 1:34 AM, tor said:

I warned you all when my mortgage went to zero that interest rates will rise :)

I warn you now that I am selling Australian real estate and buying Japanese with half the proceeds early next year.

I suggest you don't emulate me as this is another stupid idea but if you are a follower of the "person that hasn't f*cked up yet" that is the move hehehehe

I may buy in Russia, not Japan, may be a stupid idea, but S7 are starting Novosibirsk-Tokyo direct flights so if we both go full retard will have to check out respective pads. ;) 

The temptation is to buy a bigger flat or maybe even two so haven't decided how much to set aside for a Siberian den.

Not even tempted at looking at places in Australia, even with the nagging of Mrs Medved.

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How do you guys open bank accounts in japan or russia or other places?

I failed in usa singapore hongkong

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On 3/29/2018 at 6:36 PM, Swaize said:

How do you guys open bank accounts in japan or russia or other places?

I failed in usa singapore hongkong

Easiest way for all of mine is to open a company there in terms of least likely to be knocked back. Obviously starting a company has a reasonable amount of paper work to do. Otherwise get a visa for at least a year although I think my Japanese account was while on a tourist visa maybe. Either way depositing a chunk of cash seems a good start. Most countries seem to offer a 1 yr visa for tourists and that works for banks obviously.

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Ah so i could get a visa, rent an appartment, get an electricity bill, go to the bank and pretend to be resident and get a bank account like a local?

Basically with a local adress things get easyer?

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On 29/03/2018 at 6:36 PM, Swaize said:

How do you guys open bank accounts in japan or russia or other places?

I failed in usa singapore hongkong

I didn't open an account in Russia, ran out of time (I was actually in the branch about to open one), but basically just involves going to a bank with your passport and enough money to open the account. But you have to be in Russia. I don't think there is any residency requirement, but do not expect bank staff to speak English or German.

Once you have established an account you can use a service like transfer wise or western union, etc. to make deposits.

Generally speaking banks will not open accounts remotely due to KYC (know your customer) regulations. May be different if you're also establishing a company.

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On 3/31/2018 at 6:18 PM, Swaize said:

Ah so i could get a visa, rent an appartment, get an electricity bill, go to the bank and pretend to be resident and get a bank account like a local?

Basically with a local adress things get easyer?

If you have an apartment and a power bill there is not much pretending to be done :)

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Cool, so thats the way to go :) thank you :)

 

Just saw this article that says newyork  high end real estate plunged 8% and sales plunged 25% most in a decade and sales now as low as 2012!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/new-yorks-luxury-real-estate-market-is-in-correction.html

Seems to me its happening, with the rising rates and worsening law situation.

Thats a big shift. So momey might flow out of real estate and out of bonds for many years! It can only go to companies or commodities/land or cash

Edited by Swaize

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