staringclown

Predictions thread

55 posts in this topic

Au Revoir Froggie:

 

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/10/france-on-verge-of-bankruptcy/

 

"Hollende admits that France is on the verge of Bankruptcy, and he has the lowest popularity of perhaps any politician in history anywhere. Nonetheless, he asks the French people to be patient and let him work on this until his term ends – 2017. There is no way France will survive."

 

 

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It was only a head fake rebound. We are going down. HARD. NOW! This is the real deal. This isn't over until oil is below USD10.00/barrel as I have been saying for years. Once unemployment ticks over the magical 6.0% any optimism about having avoided the GFC will have vanished.

 

 

6.8% anyone?

post-148-0-49478200-1407409546_thumb.jpg

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What did Tinpusher/Bernie often say.

Unemployment could be our tipping factor.

This is about governments putting all their faith in the mining industry to sustain the economy.

Mines have been scaling back for the past 2 years, and several projects have now been shelved.

Places like Dysart, Moranbah, Emerald, Mackay, Rockhampton and even Townsville have seen sluggish markets in recent months.

I can't really say prices have fallen, but they have certainly stagnated.

There could be more pain yet to come.

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I predict there will be an increase in the level of traffic on this site, if we see a slide into next year.

If Martin Armstrongs predictions are even close, we will see an avalanche of people discussing the economy. (Tinpusher, Bernie may even make a return)

At the moment, I think a whole lot of people are holding their breath, unsure of what is to come.

If Governments start defaulting, the fall-out could be devastating. Especially for the poor.

Edited by Solomon
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oh no poll option in reply? i wanted ask gold to $2000usd, or $800,

personally i see both. when commex stop redemption to physical the paper price $800- but premiums over $1200 for physical oz's

wow its end of year  gold looks closer to 800 usd than 2000usd  still , the wheels turn like everything's running fine .  guess my next question is

how long till a wheel falls of the world finance markets?

my answer is new years 2014

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The drop in the value of our rocks mean they (The Abbott Government) can't even count on tax cuts pre next election. They might need to scare us into keeping them in power. (Ebola ridden ISIL suicide bombers a la lambie coming to a city near you by 2016)

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My prediction is that with increasing government debt and budget deficits, along with the end of the resource boom, we will see the following:

 

  • An enduring unwillingness to make tough budget cuts (not "politically possible").
  • Low interest rates to continue (not politically possible to raise them).

I reckon the polllies will maintain the above, simply kicking the can for as long as possible hoping for an economic miracle e.g. recovery in the rest of the world that pulls us along or massive infrastructure stimulus from China.

 

My prediction is that we bumble along (house prices kinda flat, unemployment maybe ticking up a bit) with the main signs of the underlying weakness being the AUD weakening slowly but surely and budget deficits blowing out. I predict a value in the 60's to the USD 3-4 years out (sooner if there is a GFC 2 or commodity prices keep weakening substantially).

 

This will lead to nasty inflation and then the government will be forced into the hard "politically impossible" choices to protect the AUD. This will come at a time when interest payments are consuming a much bigger portion of the budget and any interest rate rise will also cause chaos in the housing market.

 

Balancing saving the housing market/banks, managing budget deficits, protecting the AUD and saving the AAA rating will mean fun times for all concerned.

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My prediction is that with increasing government debt and budget deficits, along with the end of the resource boom, we will see the following:

 

  • An enduring unwillingness to make tough budget cuts (not "politically possible").
  • Low interest rates to continue (not politically possible to raise them).

I reckon the polllies will maintain the above, simply kicking the can for as long as possible hoping for an economic miracle e.g. recovery in the rest of the world that pulls us along or massive infrastructure stimulus from China.

 

My prediction is that we bumble along (house prices kinda flat, unemployment maybe ticking up a bit) with the main signs of the underlying weakness being the AUD weakening slowly but surely and budget deficits blowing out. I predict a value in the 60's to the USD 3-4 years out (sooner if there is a GFC 2 or commodity prices keep weakening substantially).

 

This will lead to nasty inflation and then the government will be forced into the hard "politically impossible" choices to protect the AUD. This will come at a time when interest payments are consuming a much bigger portion of the budget and any interest rate rise will also cause chaos in the housing market.

 

Balancing saving the housing market/banks, managing budget deficits, protecting the AUD and saving the AAA rating will mean fun times for all concerned.

 

 

I think we'll see revenue raising from previously not politically palatable sources earlier than everyone believes... Either that or recession.

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I think we'll see revenue raising from previously not politically palatable sources earlier than everyone believes... Either that or recession.

Raise taxes and there will be a recession - that's my uncouragous prediction.

 

Either way one is coming because there is no way industry will offset the closure of car manufacturers plus mining CAPEX spend dropping off (a cliff) - both in the next couple of years. Batten down the hatches!

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http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/weak-economy-to-push-interest-rates-down-20141203-11zcp2.html

 

An unprecedented further cut in interest rates to levels never seen before in Australia is now virtually certain as the national economy sputters with dwindling growth and disposable incomes slipping backwards.

Slower than expected growth of just 2.7 per cent for the year, outlined in the September quarter national accounts, immediately prompted Treasurer Joe Hockey to reassure Australians he would not order harsh new cuts in the forthcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook nor in his second budget in May, admitting it would harm the economy and risk further falls in jobs growth and incomes.


"If we have revenue falls due to external factors we should not chase them down," he said. "New cuts to the budget would slow the Australian economy."
 

 

 
Looks like they're not in any hurry to deliver any politically unpopular cuts, no doubt influenced by the reaction to their first budget.
 
His statements make me even more confident in terms of betting on a national debt and AUD blowout, with only an absolute crisis eventually forcing unpopular and difficult measures.
Edited by Turkey

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Is this a fun thread or do you really have politicians who actually do things and change things over there in Australia?

I am asking because here in Europe we have people like Hollande (jellyfish) and Cameron (Flag in the wind) and Berlusconi (party clown) and the EU Politicians are not even up for a vote so they do what they want and put out 1000 page documents from time to time to inform us that nothing has changed except maby that alternative healing got outlawed and Seedsaving is now a crime...

Edited by Swaize

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Au Revoir Froggie:

 

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/10/france-on-verge-of-bankruptcy/

 

"Hollende admits that France is on the verge of Bankruptcy, and he has the lowest popularity of perhaps any politician in history anywhere. Nonetheless, he asks the French people to be patient and let him work on this until his term ends – 2017. There is no way France will survive."

Has there been any update on this prediction?

It was all mainstream at one point. Very quiet since.

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http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/weak-economy-to-push-interest-rates-down-20141203-11zcp2.html

 

 
Looks like they're not in any hurry to deliver any politically unpopular cuts, no doubt influenced by the reaction to their first budget.
 
His statements make me even more confident in terms of betting on a national debt and AUD blowout, with only an absolute crisis eventually forcing unpopular and difficult measures.

 

Yep.

Borrow, borrow, borrow......

Don't let the plebs think we're in a bad way. its bad for re-election.

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Is this a fun thread or do you really have politicians who actually do things and change things over there in Australia?

I am asking because here in Europe we have people like Hollande (jellyfish) and Cameron (Flag in the wind) and Berlusconi (party clown) and the EU Politicians are not even up for a vote so they do what they want and put out 1000 page documents from time to time to inform us that nothing has changed except maby that alternative healing got outlawed and Seedsaving is now a crime...

Why is "seed saving" a crime?

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Is this a fun thread or do you really have politicians who actually do things and change things over there in Australia?

I am asking because here in Europe we have people like Hollande (jellyfish) and Cameron (Flag in the wind) and Berlusconi (party clown) and the EU Politicians are not even up for a vote so they do what they want and put out 1000 page documents from time to time to inform us that nothing has changed except maby that alternative healing got outlawed and Seedsaving is now a crime...

 

Our current crop of politicians are weather vanes. (Flags in the wind) The party in power only governs for those that voted for it. Vested interests sponsor the two competing major parties and neither have the balls to go against their masters. The trouble is that the populous has had it too good for too long. We've had twenty years of uninterrupted prosperity. Were dumb, fat and happy. Like Greece before the party ended. The current government thought their mere election would unleash the animal spirits a la Hayek and they could sit back and enjoy 20 more years of prosperity. Turns out they've some work to do. They chose mild austerity with a focus on the less well off paying more rather than the progressive taxation the country is used to. The populous see it as unfair. 

 

The trouble is the populous see everything as unfair. Any tax rise to pay for the benefits accumulated during the good times is answered with a universal cry that they can't afford any rise in tax.They're right. Anyone who is anyone is hocked up to the eyeballs in debt. You're either trying to buy property, upgrading property or the holy grail investing in an ever increasing amount of properties (plural) Seen through the prism of the debt everyone is doing it tough, even with interest rates at record lows and falling. The country has snookered itself. Interest rates can never rise again. Someone has to pay more tax but 93% of the populous consider themselves middle class so it isn't them. 0.07% consider themselves wealthy but they sponsored the government so there's no way they are paying more tax. Google are looking ripe for the picking...

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Our current crop of politicians are weather vanes. (Flags in the wind) The party in power only governs for those that voted for it. Vested interests sponsor the two competing major parties and neither have the balls to go against their masters. The trouble is that the populous has had it too good for too long. We've had twenty years of uninterrupted prosperity. Were dumb, fat and happy. Like Greece before the party ended. The current government thought their mere election would unleash the animal spirits a la Hayek and they could sit back and enjoy 20 more years of prosperity. Turns out they've some work to do. They chose mild austerity with a focus on the less well off paying more rather than the progressive taxation the country is used to. The populous see it as unfair. 

 

The trouble is the populous see everything as unfair. Any tax rise to pay for the benefits accumulated during the good times is answered with a universal cry that they can't afford any rise in tax.They're right. Anyone who is anyone is hocked up to the eyeballs in debt. You're either trying to buy property, upgrading property or the holy grail investing in an ever increasing amount of properties (plural) Seen through the prism of the debt everyone is doing it tough, even with interest rates at record lows and falling. The country has snookered itself. Interest rates can never rise again. Someone has to pay more tax but 93% of the populous consider themselves middle class so it isn't them. 0.07% consider themselves wealthy but they sponsored the government so there's no way they are paying more tax. Google are looking ripe for the picking...

Staringclown,

This is a pretty good assessment of the situation.

Any government that tries to take back what people have are going to face the same slaps in the face, that this government has.

I think we are going to see a rise in the number of independents, alternative parties, in parliament, who will hold the balance of power and they are more likely to respond to popular opinion.

We are stuck.

I like the image of being "snookered".

Meanwhile, the government will have to go deeper and deeper into deficit and debt itself to keep paying the  benefits.

Fascinating checkmate.

I appreciate your thoughts.

Thanks for posting them.

Edited by Solomon

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not a prediction but..

Presenting The $303 Trillion In Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now On The Hook For

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/presenting-303-trillion-derivatives-us-taxpayers-are-now-hook

 

 

Courtesy of the Cronybus(sic) last minute passage, government was provided a quid-pro-quo $1.1 trillion spending allowance with Wall Street's blessing in exchange for assuring banks that taxpayers would be on the hook for yet another bailout, as a result of the swaps push-out provision, after incorporating explicit Citigroup language that allows financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, explicitly putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by these contracts. Recall:

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Staringclown,

This is a pretty good assessment of the situation.

Any government that tries to take back what people have are going to face the same slaps in the face, that this government has.

I think we are going to see a rise in the number of independents, alternative parties, in parliament, who will hold the balance of power and they are more likely to respond to popular opinion.

We are stuck.

I like the image of being "snookered".

Meanwhile, the government will have to go deeper and deeper into deficit and debt itself to keep paying the  benefits.

Fascinating checkmate.

I appreciate your thoughts.

Thanks for posting them.

Thank you sol.  I assumed the comments were de rigueur for regs but a summary for Swaize

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The drop in the value of our rocks mean they (The Abbott Government) can't even count on tax cuts pre next election. They might need to scare us into keeping them in power. (Ebola ridden ISIL suicide bombers a la lambie coming to a city near you by 2016)

 

 

I'm counting this particular prediction as fulfilled...

Tony Abbott overplays the national security card

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I see Gold going to USD 400.00.

 

Now that's a big call! On what grounds do you base that prediction?

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Now that's a big call! On what grounds do you base that prediction?

 

These are times where everything that doesn't make logical sense occurs.

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