staringclown

Predictions thread

55 posts in this topic

It was only a head fake rebound. We are going down. HARD. NOW! This is the real deal. This isn't over until oil is below USD10.00/barrel as I have been saying for years. Once unemployment ticks over the magical 6.0% any optimism about having avoided the GFC will have vanished.

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oh no poll option in reply? i wanted ask gold to $2000usd, or $800,

personally i see both. when commex stop redemtions to physical the paper price $800- but premiums over $1200 for physical oz's

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oh no poll option in reply? i wanted ask gold to $2000usd, or $800,

personally i see both. when commex stop redemtions to physical the paper price $800- but premiums over $1200 for physical oz's

Difficult to add a poll SG. (assuming there will be multiple predictions on different topics)

Queues 80 deep were forming at Australian Bullion in Sydney for the physical I presume?

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You may as well add the fact that I exchanged AUD to GBP on April 03, 2013 when Yahoo Finance quoted AUDGBP= 0.6919. One of the few predictions where I actually put money where my mouth is.

Crude oil is going to less than USD10.00 from a current USD88.00.

Australian unemployment is going to be 6.0% or more before May 01, 2014.

Australian property prices will drop by 75% from its all-time high.

Most of this shake-out will occur before/by September 2017 so we won't have to wait much longer.

Plus TJX (NYSE) quoting at $46.70 is going down hard.

Plus ROST (NASDAQ) quoting at $62.51 is going down hard.

Edited by sydney3000

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Queues 80 deep were forming at Australian Bullion in Sydney for the physical I presume?

I am having flashbacks of Nortel when it started to drop. I bought NT on the way down at $32...I was young and in love.

When things start getting volatile all I know is I have never made any money.

I predict gold...lower! If you want to punish people for backing gold this is how you do it. Get 'em speculating as opposed to saving. I will now remove my alfoil hat and get on with my day.

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Sorry for self-quoting. Can't be bothered retyping my predictions in January this year:

Bond yields appear to be going up. That will make bond prices fall - so they are probably not good investments right now.

I think precious metals are interest sensitive as well. Zero interest rate policies are linked to printing money - and hence gold prices seem to go up when interest rates go down. If rates are going up now then gold will be under pressure.

So, this leaves equities. I'm long term bullish US equities, but we could be seeing a correction in February-March as markets expect other market participants to become cautious during the fiscal cliff debate.

I think Japan will be facing trouble ahead. Their mercantilist export driven economy is facing tough competition from South Korea and China. The Abe administration is hell bent on generating inflation of about 2%. That will cause their bond debt yield to go way up and any new debt will cause a blow-out in their budget deficits due to interest payments - and their public debt burden will therefore go up further. But the yen carry trade may be hurt by this, which would reduce Japanese appetite for Australian assets.

Regarding Australian equities - I'm not convinced that iron ore prices will stay at this high level (around $170). Iron ore has ranged between $90-$200 over the last couple of years, and I think that supply is coming on line faster than demand growth. There seems to be a consensus that the Australian terms of trade has already peaked and we are now on the other side of the slope. Although the AUD has been very popular with central banks around the world, their currency basket rebalancing should be close to complete by now.

US shares have done well and I have all my investments in US equities and a US$ cash account.

I think the US market will take a breather now, but S&P 500 will continue to be strong for the rest of the year.

The AU$ will fall, but not by much in the short to medium term.

I think IBM on the New York Stock Exchange will be a good investment in the long term. It is now around US$203 per share. Perhaps the reason Warren Buffett has invested heavily in the company is because of their Watson technology. Basically, this is a case of the 'rise of the machines' technology that can beat human expert knowledge:

http://www-03.ibm.co...tion/us/watson/

So, I am just waiting for a market correction before taking a position in IBM.

In Australia, I think real estate will be flat for the next few years. There is very little chance of a property market crash here, since there are just too many vested interests and political support to prop up the market. And the RBA supports the real estate market too. How can you bet against the RBA, politicians, media, and the vested interests by 'shorting' real estate? Real estate is a national religion.

However, I cannot see how mortgages can constitute more than 60% of the loan book portfolio of banks, as they are now. So property prices will probably increase by annual GDP growth rates at best. But most likely the market will be flat since there is little capacity for an increase in household debt levels with salaries stagnating.

The price of gold will probably continue to struggle as I think it is linked to commodities and interest rates. You cannot go much lower than a zero-interest rate policy, but the rate can go up - which may be the case in a couple of years. Likewise, I think we will see continued weakness in commodity prices - especially for oil and energy.

Lower energy costs will stimulate global economies, so I think the next few years will see overall global GDP growth above 2%, even though Europe will struggle. Australia will face economic problems later this year and 2014 due to reduced mining investments. But most people will blame Abbott for the state of the economy.

So - US equities is the best asset class for a while longer.

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If the AUDUSD was 0.50 when US and AU rates were equal and if the AUDUSD was 1.00 when the US rate was 0% and the AU rate was 4.75% then would the AUDUSD be 0.25 if the US rate was 4.75% and the AU rate was 0%?

Edited by sydney3000

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Most of this shake-out will occur before/by September 2017 so we won't have to wait much longer.

"Work on the tunnel from the existing M4 to Ashfield and the City West Link is expected to be finished by 2019. It is not clear what will happen when motorists driving on the three-lane WestConnex tunnel to Ashfield arrive at the two-lane City West Link."

http://smh.drive.com.au/roads-and-traffic/barry-ofarrell-to-unveil-sydneys-westconnex-motorway-plans-20130919-2u06s.html

I'd love to see an economic crash in September 2017 followed by dramatic emigration and concluded by a road project that few will use. I am actually for this project but only if we also put a building height limit on the CBD to stop people from having reasons to go there.

The way things pan out we will be ZIRPING for the next years and my September 2017 target date for some major commotion due to rising interest rates is still on.

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Plus TJX (NYSE) quoting at $46.70 is going down hard.

Plus ROST (NASDAQ) quoting at $62.51 is going down hard.

 

Plus AMZN (NASDAQ) quoting at $263.55 is going down hard. 

 

These three have skyrocketed since April. Their falls will be massive. Funny money. TJX in particular is entirely based on addictive endless debt-financed consumption. I won't hide my joy to see it bankrupt.

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Australian unemployment is going to be 6.0% or more before May 01, 2014.

 

It's time to celebrate!

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It's time to celebrate!

 

Careful, or Kochie will unleash the Reject the Unemployment Rate Dancers on you.

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The Australian unemployment rate keeps rising to such a level where it becomes a threat to the maintenance of prices in the property sectors due to defaults. At that point the Australian government will raise the Newstart allowance to a level where people can make the payments on their interest-only mortgages in the lower strata of the housing ladder. Under the disguise of helping the unfortunate battlers the Australian government will bail out the mortgage lenders once more.

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Unemployment keeps rising and so Australian government gives direct cash payments to landlords to allow them to renovate properties to house two families each.

Work for the dole introduced and provides free manual labour to the housing construction industry.

Both policies intensify the collapsing house bubble.

Edited by Ugg

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I'd love to be working for the dole. I'd make sure the cost of slavery would be reflected in my output.

 

that's why they should make the dole based on output generated by the recipient.

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Why not let those that feel like slaves go elsewhere easily?

 

And I most certainly do not mean this in terms of a "we're full get out" way. I mean "why is it so damn hard to go else where" I want to but for various government reasons I am stuck here currently.

 

And this is a change over the past decade. My old clearances were "oh you aren't a wanker and you do good sh*t for us, please come on board" now I have to prove that I am a lover of australia.

 

If the people the country used to want are now made to jump through bizarre rings just to do the stuff that Australia wants how many are going to deal with that crap?

 

(or of course they decided they don't actually want me anymore in which case I look rather stupid)

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Are you arguing for a free trade in slaves? Interesting idea. Slaves immigrating to country with the best work for the dole conditions.

More seriously, I have come across the problems you describe previously. Some places have an overinflated belief in their desirability and so make all these hurdles..because they think they can. I work at such a place. Similarly I also like to assure US and UK immigration that they couldn't pay me to live there and so I am not an illegal immigrant risk.

Edited by Ugg

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Party members are assured of preferential treatment... Yes, it's time to join.

 

When the next cubicle to your own hangs an Australian flag from the ceiling for Australia day, make sure you cubicle is festooned with more and bigger flags. 

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