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cobran20

Vancouver Detached, Attached and Apartment Prices

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Another country that experienced a commodity boom

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8181735_orig.jpg The chart above shows Vancouver detached, attached (townhouse) and apartment (condo) prices. In March 2012, detached house prices ticked up another 1.3% M/M after the 16.6% M/M slingshot in January. Sellers are on a fishing expedition and buyers are biting big; they added over $169,000 to the price of an average (read "crappy") SFD in the last 3 months for a 22% Y/Y gain. Flippers at the high end are skewing the data; with their wishful thinking (thanks to VREAA). Flippers at the "low" end have other problems. Townhouse and condo prices peaked last July and April and are down 8% AND are trading on average at 2008 prices! This price divergence is a warning and is compounded by double digit Y/Y sales plunging against rising inventory (Scorecard).

The 8th annual Demographia study places Vancouver as the second most unaffordable housing market in 325 international markets (Hong Kong is 1st). Vancouver's median house price to median income ratio is 10.6, whereas New York and London have ratios of "only" 6.2 and 6.9. We are not a world class financial center. We export our resources without finishing them, we build computer games and work for WalMart.

The average earnings in BC did tick up in January and set a new "high" but have been trailing the national trend for 27 months and remain 3.3% below Canada's national average (Earnings Chart) and are 19.3% below Alberta earnings where they dig stuff out of the ground as well.

The new 2011 Census was just published and Vancouver's population grew by 9.3% and our "private dwelling" housing stock grew by 9% and our "occupied by usual residents" grew by 9.1%. We have not run out of housing, and according to my calculation, it now takes 4.1 average BC wage earners to buy an average Vancouver SFD.

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This sounds familiar!

Vancouver home sales fall to lowest in April since 2001, real estate board says

Existing home sales in Canada’s most expensive city dropped last month, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The board described home sale and listing activity as maintaining a “consistent pace” leading to balanced market conditions but its April statistic shows total sales across the Multiple Listing Service in April were 2,799, a 12.3% decline from a year ago. It also represented a 2.6% decline from March 2012.

REBGV said April sales were the lowest for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9% below the 10-year average for the month of 3.369

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