cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3895 posts in this topic

heh. But gold traders and market forecasters should...

 

I differ on the reason any group should utilise their skills in one area to expand their area of relevance to another but at least he and I agree on the basic point. I forget exactly when or where Armstrong did his science degree.

 

So I mailed him:

 

 

 

He has never replied to any of my mail before but we can hold hope I guess.

Here I go, posting again without any credentials to do so.

 

I agree with your enquiry tor.

Possibly though from a slightly different perspective.

It is ok to speak about experience, but if were to dig a hole for a couple of hours, does that mean I have experience about digging holes?

At what point does a person gain the level of expertise that warrants the supposed "sixth" sense?

The language of a sixth sense almost borders on reference to "religious" experience, or an "out of body" experience.

In sport they now talk about muscle memory. Repeating a movement over and over again to such an extent that it becomes involuntary.

It has been my concern with the way Martin has commented on several subjects, where I too would question his credentials to offer an opinion.

I might even suggest that a large proportion of any success he may have had in predicting markets, could be regarded as involuntary memory.

 

Yet, his claim in many parts of his blog, is that it is "the computer" that does all the work.

Why is there then a need for Martin to interpret the results.

If the computer has been programmed to produce the report, there should be no room for any interpretation on his part, and yet I discover that he actually has to interpret the results.

I have never believed that he could possibly program for every variable in life.

That is surely close to claiming to be God.

Delusions of grandeur???

 

I'm not saying Martin is wrong, or that he is not worth reading, (in fact I think he is spot on in several subjects - he agrees with my opinion), but I do still think every member of this forum needs to maintain an open mind, and retain their own independence in predicting the future.

Edited by Solomon

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France in State of Economic Emergency

Germany Sending Refugees back to Austria

Refugee Crisis is Tearing Europe Apart

Crude – What Lies Beneath $30 & Where Will Resistance Stand Here After

 

 

... From there out into 2022 to 2023/2024, which will be the next top in the Economic Confidence Model, we see a sharp rise in volatility. This is lining up with two primary factors – WAR and aMONETARY CRISIS.

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Why does he keep on conflating 20 degree changes in day to day weather with Global warming which is one or two degrees over years if not decades? As far as I am aware no one has ever said "Hey global warming will make it hotter by those few degrees and that is all that happens". Except for morons and willfully misleading people of course.

 

Edit: And if he is on the board of directors of a company that put out this http://www.planalytics.com/planalytics-2015-second-warmest-year-record-third-wettest/ which claims the US had it second hottest year ever and at the same time write a blog post about how Hong Kong might have it's coldest because of the ice age coming I start to wonder how the rest of the board feel about him. Seems off message at the least.

Edited by tor

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Why does he keep on conflating 20 degree changes in day to day weather with Global warming which is one or two degrees over years if not decades? As far as I am aware no one has ever said "Hey global warming will make it hotter by those few degrees and that is all that happens". Except for morons and willfully misleading people of course.

 

Edit: And if he is on the board of directors of a company that put out this http://www.planalytics.com/planalytics-2015-second-warmest-year-record-third-wettest/ which claims the US had it second hottest year ever and at the same time write a blog post about how Hong Kong might have it's coldest because of the ice age coming I start to wonder how the rest of the board feel about him. Seems off message at the least.

 

But are we getting global warming or the the 'Maunder Minimum' is the only question of relevance. Now Armstrong has said:

 

 

...We have to comprehend that this is like a crash of the stock market from a 1929 high. It will be rapid and by no means gradual. By the time we look back at this in a few years, we will be willing to pay taxes for global warming to heat things up again.

 

 So I'd assume that in about 5 years, we'll know who is correct.

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But are we getting global warming or the the 'Maunder Minimum' is the only question of relevance. Now Armstrong has said:

 

 

 So I'd assume that in about 5 years, we'll know who is correct.

 

The thing I find astonishing isn't the contrarian POV of the scientist concerned but the willingness on the part of so called sceptics to accept the POV without question solely because it supports their own world view. Why would this scientist (against the consensus) be correct?

 

 

 

How would a new Maunder minimum impact climate? It's an obvious question, and one that climate scientists have already answered. But many journalists didn't ask the experts, instead drawing their own conclusions. The media failed in its duty to investigate and inform. It didn't seek expert comment to put the research into context. Instead journalists tried to answer technical climate science questions themselves, and mostly got it wrong.
As discussed previously, the impact of a new Maunder minimum on climate has beenstudied many times. There's 40% more CO2 in the air now than during the 17th century, and global temperature records are being smashed. A new Maunder minimum would slow climate change, but it is not enough to stop it.The scientist at the centre of the media storm, Valentina Zharkova, told USA todayIn the press release, we didn't say anything about climate change. My guess is when they heard about Maunder minimum, they used Wikipedia or something to find out more about it.

 

 

While Zharkova was surprised by the media coverage, she and others continued to discuss a new mini ice age.

If a mini ice age is at odds with the prior literature, why does Zharkova continue speculating about it? In personal correspondence with Zharkova, she told me it was only after the media coverage that her research was connected to climate change and the Maunder minimum. However, she said that once the connection was made, it did make sense to her.

Zharkova also told IFLS: We didn't mention anything about the weather change, but I would have to agree that possibly you can expect it [a mini ice age].

So it seems Zharkova's justification is based on media extrapolation of her own press release and Wikipedia, not the extensive peer-reviewed literature on the Maunder minimum itself.

I emailed Zharkova and she sent me two studies that support her views, but they aren't representative of the literature and I don't believe she has critically evaluated their content.

Is there any quantitative basis for claims of a mini ice age? Zharkova and her colleagues have cited a 1997 article by Judith Lean, who showed the sun's brightness (quantified by solar irradiance) was 3 W per m2 less during the Maunder minimum than today. More recent studies, including those by Lean, find the solar irradiance varies less than was thought in 1997.

In plain English, the small change in sunlight reaching the Earth during a new Maunder minimum wouldn't be enough to reverse climate change. For the technically minded, even a 3 W per m2 change in irradiance corresponds to a radiative forcing of just 0.5 W per m2 (because the Earth is a sphere and not a flat circle), which is less than the radiative forcing produced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

To be blunt: no mini ice age for us. The real story of the impending mini ice age isn't about climate at all. It is a cautionary tale, of how science should and shouldn't be communicated.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-mini-ice-age-hoopla-giant.html#jCp

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Well even wikipedia wouldn't support the mini ice age theory pushed by Armstrong, last I checked it said the maunder minimum occurred in the middle of the little ice age which lasted more than a decade or two (by a factor of 50 odd I think). If we were approaching this critical point and if it had a causal relationship then surely we would have been in the little ice age for a few years (say 200 odd) at least and not experiencing the hottest (and more scarily for the states wettest) year.

 

I am completely sure that there are people who are not scientists that have rebuttals for this but, fortunately, I am not a scientist either. Therefore in that argument I am just as right as them.

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Sell all Real Estate, i hope for him ;)

The real estate cycle of marty goes to the beginning of the US and its quite interesting to see that cyclical swings DO occur!

Again, sell your one family homes now while there is still liquidity. Hold US$ for now, some of that in FED reserve notes.

 

 
For politics, i am neutral and throw the word: Arena :)
The best politician would be a computer that is turned off. 
Even Swiss people vote for stupid things like involuntary flu shots for all children.
 

As for Socrates, i have some access to it right now. That is also where the info on AUD and AllOrds came from.

It boils down to reversals and arrays on weekly/monthly  and yearly/quarterly

The arrays change a lot, which could explain Martys changing forecasts. They point to time   , e.g. 1.Feb and 15.Feb in the dow

The reversal numbers stay the same but there are lots of them. They point to pricel levels  e.g. 15100 in the dow

 

Combined with a chart they are quite useful for trading but not to predict the future (many conference participants try, but too many variables)

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One year is over since i promised to record trades that i make using Martys blog and his arrays.

Back then i decided to start a blog and post trades the very day i make them. I decided to use 2x leverage as that is what most hedgefunds use on average.

 

I started with 100´000 virtual US$ in January 2015

The top post is always the newest and on the third-newest post i summed up my balance and therefore gains for the year of 2015

 

Here it is, my little baby :)

http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/

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Thanks you two   :)

 

As for the spreadsheet, i have a looong word document with snippets from the blog on Gold, the DOW, the Euro and some general stuff. Marty keeps posting more and i copy interesting snippets into that word. It builds up as he keeps writing and the picture gets clearer, he might say, if this and that happens then the DOW rallies into 2017 and if it does, that would mean we get the sovereign debt crysis.

What have you guys got?

 

However most of Socrates predictions are in the form of Arrays. And it starts getting interesting when you combine several of those together from different markets. So i have a landscape of Arrays in Paint. 

 

I did actually make the blog, where i put in trades.

I just got curious what kind of returns I could generate compared to a good hedgefund.

So next year we will know :)

 

Here is one post i made way back about the project of recording how much gains are possible with Martys blog. There was only one way to know, try it out myself. So i did:

http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/

Edited by Swaize

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One year is over since i promised to record trades that i make using Martys blog and his arrays.

Back then i decided to start a blog and post trades the very day i make them. I decided to use 2x leverage as that is what most hedgefunds use on average.

 

I started with 100´000 virtual US$ in January 2015

The top post is always the newest and on the third-newest post i summed up my balance and therefore gains for the year of 2015

 

Here it is, my little baby :)

http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/

 

Good blog - and great results!

 

Bookmarked.

 

Please update often.

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Getting 100k USD for dabbling in trades is my biggest challenge... particularly when a large chunk of my 'bonus' is already no chance of being met due to the unrealistic KPIs executives set.

Edited by Mr Medved
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Yeah spare capital is where it starts. Most people who trade loose and gain money like a roller coaster, so consistency is the next step. I am still working on that.

 

You guys are the first i show the blog to, i kept it secret, i probably feared i could fail...

 

I will happily continue writing as i am curious if its possible to trade like this consistantly another year :)

Edited by Swaize

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I suggest you read up on The Crusades...

 

Starting... and no doubts more to come!

 

link

link

 

European history on its way to repeating. I'd guess that Socrates war cycle must include Europe as one of the hot spots over the next few years.

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