cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3850 posts in this topic

While putting on the rose coloured glasses you can see why it is possible that China has a lot of development yet to go. They do clever things like investing in training especially skilled trades so they now have a reasonably capable workforce and a good value one. So this side of things is believable even if you think they are going to have the odd hiccup along the path of progress.

What I cannot believe though is commodities could remain so far above costs forever with a capacity building flourish liek the one we witness now. We are investing so much now in capacity building it seems unsustainable. At some point even if China goes on demanding iron between ourselves the brazillians, indians, russians and of course the Chinese themselves there will be more than enough production.

So maybe demand will hold up but supply will catch up. Where have you heard me say that before?

Anyway this is an industry cycle like any other the usual length being about 2x the length of time it takes for new capacity in that industry to be built. An iron ore mine I reckon is about 5 years from go to woe. Anyone who believes this time is different is in for a rude shock. Capacity will meet demand. There is simply too much coin in iron ore production for it to be sustainable.

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Gold & Oil review. The last paragraph and in particular the last sentence are very 'interesting'.

An Islamic Revolution is it on time?

Did you read that as

a) the dollar will perform worst against real estate (ie. real estate will perform the best)

or

B) real estate will perform the worst of all hard assets?

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Did you read that as

a) the dollar will perform worst against real estate (ie. real estate will perform the best)

or

B) real estate will perform the worst of all hard assets?

The last sentence begins with 'However, keep in mind that we are in the midst of a debt crisis...'. So I can only assume that as debt implodes, there will be RE fire sales to raise cash to pay off debts.

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Clearly out of The Stoney Lonesome. I'm wondering if some of his graphics are courtesy WILLIAMBANZAI7.

As usual I'll print this off and read it at work tomorrow. When I'm productive.

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The next wave

...There is nobody with a balanced budget and nobody who is reducing the national debts. This means that the debt bubble is just going to grow larger and larger. There is no intent to actually balance the budget no less reduce its national debt. Thus, the problem is percolating as we enter this new 8.6 year wave. By the time we reach the end, well we should see the most interesting times separating a fool and his money.

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Martin certainly seems to be a little more conservative now that he's on the outside.

His language seens to be more toned down, and I read that he is hedging his bets just a little bit more.

Not quite as conclusive as a few years ago.

It may have to do perhaps, with the fact that now that he has access to more up-to-date information.

But he has extended out his predictions for the sovereign debt crisis to 2016-2020.

Going back a little he was suggesting that it would impact late this year and into 2012.

Always helpful to read another man's opinion.

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The Man Who Changed Our Way of Life Forever - Osama Bin Laden

...Bin Laden managed to strip us of all privacy and rights by opening the door to government officials who simply want to keep track of everything we do without limitation. Generations stood up against and encroachment upon such rights. But that is all swept aside. In the name of Bin Laden, our world was changed forever and our way of life was lost including our liberty, freedom, and the essence of what it once meant to be American. Bin Laden in reality accomplished what NO standing army could ever do. He won for they say he hated our way of life, and he indeed changed that forever transforming it into precisely what so many your Arabs are rising up against today...

...Finding Bin Laden going into this bottom of the Economic Confidence Model 2011.45 is actually typical. Even gold has declined after reaching almost the TOP of the Primary Channel. We are just in a period where there will be a shift in trend, and it is not always for the better. Yet with hindsight, these turning points at the bottom of the Wave represent shifts in general trends...

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Another American nutcase who thinks he's living 200 years ago.

High faluting legal principals were easy to apply when the US consisted of 2.5 million white people. A waste of time when it is a population of 315 million, most of them hopeless.

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In the name of Bin Laden, our world was changed forever and our way of life was lost including our liberty, freedom, and the essence of what it once meant to be American

Yeah because the US government had no such practices in the past...

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Another American nutcase who thinks he's living 200 years ago.

High faluting legal principals were easy to apply when the US consisted of 2.5 million white people. A waste of time when it is a population of 315 million, most of them hopeless.

He's one of the smartest economic forecasters around, who thinks outside the square, unlike most 'experts'.

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He's one of the smartest economic forecasters around, who thinks outside the square, unlike most 'experts'.

What did he forecast that was so smart? He strikes me as a goofball!

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What did he forecast that was so smart? He strikes me as a goofball!

'87 stock market crash, Nikkei crash, Russian collapse in '98 among others. He was advising governments and charges tens of thousands for his company's newsletters. He's worth reading IMO because he makes you think about what he writes.

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'87 stock market crash, Nikkei crash, Russian collapse in '98 among others. He was advising governments and charges tens of thousands for his company's newsletters. He's worth reading IMO because he makes you think about what he writes.

I think Wulfgar's problem is that Armstrong is not recommending Greek bonds! :laugh:

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I think Wulfgar's problem is that Armstrong is not recommending Greek bonds! :laugh:

That's a mistake on his part, he's no longer with it!

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That's a mistake on his part, he's no longer with it!

Your Greek bonds may well be the play over the next couple of years. But longer term, I'm inclined to go with Armstrong's view that public/government debt will blow up as covered in his article The Next Wave.

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Amongst the ramblings I noticed...................................................SeaDawg_Head.jpg

The big breakout in GOLD still does not appear to be now.

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Amongst the ramblings I noticed...................................................SeaDawg_Head.jpg

and he's correct! Gold hasn't gone parabolic like silver.

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