cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

4057 posts in this topic

On 17.7.2019 at 7:20 PM, Swaize said:

So june became july and its probably a high in the dow and gold

Next turnpoint is september area

Yes medved i agree it could be a september  low in the dow.

 

Private blog summary:

Dow up into 2022ish so buy the dips this year

Gold up into 2024? Buy the dips

Emerging markets will crash, europes economy declines, 

Dollar rallye ahead and eurondecline and pound decline into 2021

2022area monetary system crysis worldwide, bretton woods style, dollar reserve system change

If your not making tons of money the next 4 years youre doing something wrong 

 

by the way how is it going with the australian real estate collapse?

all ordinairies conference array m.jpg

Here are the turning points for australias stock market. August and December turnpoints

with action in the market august and september

By the way, @Mr Medved do NOT expect the next crysis to just be a stock crash. And also, stocks can decline much later after a recession or slump already started.

Edited by Swaize

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By the way, the forecast on the Dow is:

2021/22 high

at 33.000-35.000 

 

so im thinking to buy more on a september or november low this year

all ordinairies conference array m.jpg

Edited by Swaize

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Gold has been a nice hedge against a declining AUD. I don't see the AUD recovering until the next commodity bull market... which may coincide with a major war cycle, so nothing to celebrate.

I'm still bullish on the USD. The trade wars and what's going on in Hong Kong is not good for global trade or for China. I spoke with people in a company that deals internationally, particularly in Latin America, and said business was down quite a bit in the last year - Australia was actually the strongest for them.

Swaize - want to be my hedge fund manager? :) 

I don't have time to keep up with what's happening in the markets. I was actually thinking of contacting Marty to see if he'd like me to organise a WEC in Australia for him... I'm just a bit disorganised at the minute.

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Just follow the trend Medved :)

Can use the reversals for help and for disciplin.

For the record, marty kept writing all the way up to the 2018 top in djia if this numer gets elected then correction, it went further up, ok if THIS number, ok if this number and finally one got elected, he then switched to this is NOT a big crash, buy the an april low, he got surprised by the december2018 crash but called the low to the week, on the conference in may2019 he then said look buy the dow its making new highs, now hes saying okay guys, its going up but man THIS LOOKS TOPPY

Hey, Marty is starting to say that the usa markets look toppy! He is still saying that right now we can get a rallye for a few months, but this is the FIRST time since 2011 that i hear him saying: look, this market looks toppy, be aware. His target is 32.000-35.000 for the DJIA (since already many years)

Edited by Swaize

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  • For the Record, Marty has NEVER before said, oh watchout this could be an important high, a bubble like he is doing now!

" Both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are leading the Dow. This is clearly warning that we may indeed be approaching an important temporary top in early 2020. The liquidity crisis remains critical as banks simply do not trust banks. The bulk of analysts are clueless as to what is going on and they continue to look at the NY banks and draw parallels to 2008 expecting a crisis in the USA. "

thats all im gonna copy here. Clearly Marty is worried about the european banks collapsing and that stocks can have an important peak in 2020!

This is the most bearish i have heard Marty. Yes in 2015 he said all the bad stuff comes after the 2015 turnpoint and in 2017 he said ok sorry guys, we are f*cked and cant prevent anything now anymore. But now he is saying 2020-2022 will be the time with the european banks, the monetary crysis cycle, the dollar rise.

This is the most important to understand!!!! if you have sh*t-tons of money and its in the bank how do you get it out????? only by buying real estate stocks or bonds. Bonds are seriously overvalued so stocks and real estate get money. They are the flight to safety when you are afraid if your bank might collapse. Physical stock certificate.

Also watch corporate credit and especially car companies! Ford and so on

Obviously switch your longterm portfolio to risk-off mode! Might wanna add gold ond dips.

Edited by Swaize

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I don't have a sh*t-ton of money so am less concerned. :)

I actually feel quietly comfortable holding cash in a Russian bank account. A far cry from 1998!

I don't think it matters what you think is overvalued, it's where the masses/"dumb money" run to, and getting there first

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