cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

4063 posts in this topic

On 17.7.2019 at 7:20 PM, Swaize said:

So june became july and its probably a high in the dow and gold

Next turnpoint is september area

Yes medved i agree it could be a september  low in the dow.

 

Private blog summary:

Dow up into 2022ish so buy the dips this year

Gold up into 2024? Buy the dips

Emerging markets will crash, europes economy declines, 

Dollar rallye ahead and eurondecline and pound decline into 2021

2022area monetary system crysis worldwide, bretton woods style, dollar reserve system change

If your not making tons of money the next 4 years youre doing something wrong 

 

by the way how is it going with the australian real estate collapse?

all ordinairies conference array m.jpg

Here are the turning points for australias stock market. August and December turnpoints

with action in the market august and september

By the way, @Mr Medved do NOT expect the next crysis to just be a stock crash. And also, stocks can decline much later after a recession or slump already started.

Edited by Swaize

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By the way, the forecast on the Dow is:

2021/22 high

at 33.000-35.000 

 

so im thinking to buy more on a september or november low this year

all ordinairies conference array m.jpg

Edited by Swaize

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Gold has been a nice hedge against a declining AUD. I don't see the AUD recovering until the next commodity bull market... which may coincide with a major war cycle, so nothing to celebrate.

I'm still bullish on the USD. The trade wars and what's going on in Hong Kong is not good for global trade or for China. I spoke with people in a company that deals internationally, particularly in Latin America, and said business was down quite a bit in the last year - Australia was actually the strongest for them.

Swaize - want to be my hedge fund manager? :) 

I don't have time to keep up with what's happening in the markets. I was actually thinking of contacting Marty to see if he'd like me to organise a WEC in Australia for him... I'm just a bit disorganised at the minute.

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Just follow the trend Medved :)

Can use the reversals for help and for disciplin.

For the record, marty kept writing all the way up to the 2018 top in djia if this numer gets elected then correction, it went further up, ok if THIS number, ok if this number and finally one got elected, he then switched to this is NOT a big crash, buy the an april low, he got surprised by the december2018 crash but called the low to the week, on the conference in may2019 he then said look buy the dow its making new highs, now hes saying okay guys, its going up but man THIS LOOKS TOPPY

Hey, Marty is starting to say that the usa markets look toppy! He is still saying that right now we can get a rallye for a few months, but this is the FIRST time since 2011 that i hear him saying: look, this market looks toppy, be aware. His target is 32.000-35.000 for the DJIA (since already many years)

Edited by Swaize

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  • For the Record, Marty has NEVER before said, oh watchout this could be an important high, a bubble like he is doing now!

" Both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are leading the Dow. This is clearly warning that we may indeed be approaching an important temporary top in early 2020. The liquidity crisis remains critical as banks simply do not trust banks. The bulk of analysts are clueless as to what is going on and they continue to look at the NY banks and draw parallels to 2008 expecting a crisis in the USA. "

thats all im gonna copy here. Clearly Marty is worried about the european banks collapsing and that stocks can have an important peak in 2020!

This is the most bearish i have heard Marty. Yes in 2015 he said all the bad stuff comes after the 2015 turnpoint and in 2017 he said ok sorry guys, we are f*cked and cant prevent anything now anymore. But now he is saying 2020-2022 will be the time with the european banks, the monetary crysis cycle, the dollar rise.

This is the most important to understand!!!! if you have sh*t-tons of money and its in the bank how do you get it out????? only by buying real estate stocks or bonds. Bonds are seriously overvalued so stocks and real estate get money. They are the flight to safety when you are afraid if your bank might collapse. Physical stock certificate.

Also watch corporate credit and especially car companies! Ford and so on

Obviously switch your longterm portfolio to risk-off mode! Might wanna add gold ond dips.

Edited by Swaize

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I don't have a sh*t-ton of money so am less concerned. :)

I actually feel quietly comfortable holding cash in a Russian bank account. A far cry from 1998!

I don't think it matters what you think is overvalued, it's where the masses/"dumb money" run to, and getting there first

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yes i agree on russia, the worst should be behind and they manage many things extremely well, especially their state finances are like a rock!

hey i just want to say it again, marty is REALLY REALLY warning of a financial crysis coming!

even this for the DJIA: " If we get the high on the ECM in January, then this will warn that the Liquidity Crisis will pay out as it did in 1998 where they will sell assets in other investments to raise cash to cover losses in bonds. "

Guys this is serious, here is the only perpetual bull, sure since 2017 he warned of corrections if a certain number gets elected but never did he warn of such a serious crash before! like ever since 2011!!!

Get ready and hold dollars cash under the mattress

The worst of this should be over by 2022 and then many things will flip and capital flow into asia

For Stocks he advises to follow the reversals, so if somebody is long DJIA or Nasdaq index then if the dow closes any week below  26,717.04 then you can take this as a sell signal. A monthly close below  26,062.58  certainly is a sell signal you should follow, pay attention especially after february 2020

The market is calm now but march2020 should be the start or end of a more crazy move in the djia

nearterm the week of the 23.december should be a weekly turnpoint.

Edited by Swaize

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Thanks för the update Swaize.

I find it hard to trade Marty's predictions but this latest trading levels in the DJIA or Nasdaq are pretty clear. But he has been wrong before so it is hard to judge the probabilities that things will unfold as he predicts. Marty also seem to state that the market can change behaviour at any time.

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UPDATE:

so marty is really warning of a DJIA high and correction. he threw out numbers like 20% correction. i have never before heard him warn like THIS about the market being high, toppy or near a peak.

 

that being said, i follow since many years.

never follow martys market predictions unless you wanna do the oposite like wec2015 on gold where he was talking about gold crashing further instead of telling everyone to buy gold miners 

but socrates reversals are a good help in following the trend. arrays i measured are accurate 75% of time for a time-unit being a turnpoint. they can be useful to know WHEN the trend might change and then pay attention to reversals being elected.

 

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turning points in djia were 2017/18  then the next is 2022 so 2022 can be a high or a low in the Dow Jones

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From memory the Dow Jones normally performs well in USA election years, though I could be wrong about that.

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