cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

4051 posts in this topic

  1. @Swaize I think a September 2019 turning point will be down. All the signs of a global recession brewing and it has been a while since we had a stock market panic. It's also the seasonal time historically for that sort of thing (September/October/November).

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He published this article in April 2018:

Quote

...What our computer is warning about begins next year with a Directional Change in Wheat. This cycle appears to be impacted by (1) significant climate change, and (2) the War Cycle. The combination of both is pointing to a bull market in nominal dollar terms....

What a refreshing change from the shrills who need to 'homogenise' the data to try to be accurate and their forecasts are still wrong.

1.JPG

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2 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

But how to get exposure to wheat? I don't want a bigger pantry. :)

There are ETFs for everything! In any case, if you invest in it, Tor will come out of hiding a blame you for the shortage! :rolleyes:

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He's in Japan eating rice (and drinking beer) so don't think wheat will be a major concern for him. :)

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Just quietly I think Australia is in a recession and global recession is not far away. I spoke to a recruiter about a role and there were 686 applicants!

Looks like the RBA wants a Japanese-style zombie economy while the government continues to import hundreds of thousands of migrants and over ten thousand millionaires every year! ( https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/06/australia-remains-preferred-destination-for-millionaire-migrants I read an article that said Australia imported 12,000 millionaires in a year, second was USA at 10,000 - but can't find the article)

Which leads to: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-29/unafforable-housing-vancouver-result-foreign-ownership-and-chinese-funds-new-study

Ponzi nation. Not going to be pleasant when things start falling apart.

 

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11 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Just quietly I think Australia is in a recession and global recession is not far away. I spoke to a recruiter about a role and there were 686 applicants!

Looks like the RBA wants a Japanese-style zombie economy while the government continues to import hundreds of thousands of migrants and over ten thousand millionaires every year! ( https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/06/australia-remains-preferred-destination-for-millionaire-migrants I read an article that said Australia imported 12,000 millionaires in a year, second was USA at 10,000 - but can't find the article)

Which leads to: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-29/unafforable-housing-vancouver-result-foreign-ownership-and-chinese-funds-new-study

Ponzi nation. Not going to be pleasant when things start falling apart.

 

With ZIRP, they have now killed a significant section of the demand as those who derive income from interest have lost their purchasing power.

We're lucky that super funds are not compelled by law to invest in govt bonds, unlike the US. I can see why Armstrong if expecting a pension crisis there.

I  don't understand why they allow immigration whilst the unemployment rate is above the RBA's preferred level. Wages will not be rising whilst the supply of Labor rises above the demand.

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16 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Just quietly I think Australia is in a recession and global recession is not far away.

GDP read comes out today. So if it's negative we're still three months away from the announcement of recession. Which would mean we are in recession now. 

The wild card is the tax cuts. Because they are retrospective. $1k in the pocket of most tax payers once it passes and a they do their tax return. That will keep us out of recession for 6 months. Any possible technical recession delayed till early next year.

 

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4 hours ago, cobran20 said:

With ZIRP, they have now killed a significant section of the demand as those who derive income from interest have lost their purchasing power.

Those who derive income from interest are relatively few.

Those saving for a purpose (eg buying a house) aren't really effected by low interest rates when what they are going to buy isn't going up in price. They don't spend the interest earned.

Not many retirees in the spending phase hold enough in cash to be effected.

 

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58 minutes ago, zaph said:

Those who derive income from interest are relatively few.

Those saving for a purpose (eg buying a house) aren't really effected by low interest rates when what they are going to buy isn't going up in price. They don't spend the interest earned.

Not many retirees in the spending phase hold enough in cash to be effected.

 

The article below is quite old and probably reflects when I looked at this matter in any detail:

Treasury.gov.au

Quote

Overview of the results
This study covers some 2.18 million Australians aged 60 and over, or 80% of the total population aged 60 and over.  The survey is representative of all pensioners aged 60 and over and the coverage rate increases with age.   96% of the women and 87% of the men covered by the study were retired.
The study estimates that retirees aged 60 and over had received total incomes of $20,129 million in 1992-93.
The most important source of income was pensions, with retirees aged 60 and over receiving $13,099 million in pensions in 1992-93 (compared with an actual expenditure on age and veteran’s pensions of $12,978 million).  Pensions made up 66% of the their total income. 73% of all (ie including people not covered by the study) Australians aged 60 or over received a pension benefit with 49% of these receiving benefits at the full rate.
The next most important income source for retirees aged 60 and over was interest which amounted to about $3,861 million or 19% of the group’s total income.  

However, many retirees or soon to be retired are often advised to change their super allocation from growth and more towards a conservative, capital guaranteed/stable assets. 

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On 29.5.2019 at 7:43 PM, Swaize said:

Corn had a rallye into this week but is turning down. I guess the f*cking chinese pigs dying (sounds so funny) is bearish on pig-food like soy, corn.

In AUD or CAD or RUB terms, commdoties will rallye soon and into 2023 or 2024  , its time to look for companies.

Marty is making us ready for the commodity bullmarket, but the dollar rallye into 2021 might first rain on the parade. If we see a dollar rallye then right at the peak is the perfect time to shift out of USA and into Australia (maby brazil, peru  too?)  and go long wheat and gold

Socrates is up, i think i cant publish tooo many arrays or anything here, but... Let me just say that many many markets, dow gold usw have a turnpoint in june and specifically in june 10-17       so watch what happens on that date and if a new trend develops from there. 

For example djia dow: 25207 weekly close below signals decline into june

The next timing target in many many markets is around september2019 watch that(even bitcoin has september as turnpoint on the array).   And then of course january2020 the ECM date is just about on every market.

Hope that provides some value to you :)

Just imagine a world, where everything is cheap relative to salaries but no one can save enough money, cause inflation outpaces wage growth AND a credit/loan at a bank will cost 8% annually...

So good to have savings at that time!

At the moment inflation in switzerland according to my guesstimate is 4%

In Singapore they have good gov. Statistics izs also 4%

Yet loans can be had for about 2-4% in Europe so all we would have to do is  buy a cheap asset like a farm/commodities/agriculture with bank-money (in eastern europe like Czech its cheap) and inflation alone would cover the interest and when commodity prices go up again its profit time! Food/commodities are the ONE thing thats cheap. Im sure there are stocks of companies who buy farmland.

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So june became july and its probably a high in the dow and gold

Next turnpoint is september area

Yes medved i agree it could be a september  low in the dow.

 

Private blog summary:

Dow up into 2022ish so buy the dips this year

Gold up into 2024? Buy the dips

Emerging markets will crash, europes economy declines, 

Dollar rallye ahead and eurondecline and pound decline into 2021

2022area monetary system crysis worldwide, bretton woods style, dollar reserve system change

If your not making tons of money the next 4 years youre doing something wrong 

 

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5 hours ago, Swaize said:

So june became july and its probably a high in the dow and gold

Next turnpoint is september area

Yes medved i agree it could be a september  low in the dow.

 

Private blog summary:

Dow up into 2022ish so buy the dips this year

Gold up into 2024? Buy the dips

Emerging markets will crash, europes economy declines, 

Dollar rallye ahead and eurondecline and pound decline into 2021

2022area monetary system crysis worldwide, bretton woods style, dollar reserve system change

If your not making tons of money the next 4 years youre doing something wrong 

 

Thanks. The $A should follow gold.

Edited by cobran20

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