cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

4000 posts in this topic

good question, will dig for some Reversals which will confirm direction.

EDIT: " In the Cash S&P500, a weekly closing back below the 282500 level will warn of a correction perhaps into October.  "

" In the NASDAQ, a month-end close today below 744300 would signal a collapse is likely into November. We need a closing today ABOVE 763730 to imply the market can possibly hold. A failure to close above that number will also imply that we can crash into November. "  with "TODAY" marty means monthly close of august for nasdaq

 

Gold elected the monthly major bearish, but its the benchmarks again (like in december2015) so maby there will be no follow trough, but nonetheless the major bearish monthly reversal got elected a day ago! Very bad.

Marty says:"  We can see that gold continues to consolidate. The Monthly Bearish is down at 1194 "  socrates says, january is (again) a big turnpoint

The Monthly Bullish Reversal  stands up at 1271 and 1362.50

 

 

The german DAX has a good turnpoint in October

The EUR / USD has a good turnpoint in January2019

Edited by Swaize

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6 hours ago, Swaize said:

good question, will dig for some Reversals which will confirm direction.

EDIT: " In the Cash S&P500, a weekly closing back below the 282500 level will warn of a correction perhaps into October.  "

" In the NASDAQ, a month-end close today below 744300 would signal a collapse is likely into November. We need a closing today ABOVE 763730 to imply the market can possibly hold. A failure to close above that number will also imply that we can crash into November. "  with "TODAY" marty means monthly close of august for nasdaq

 

Gold elected the monthly major bearish, but its the benchmarks again (like in december2015) so maby there will be no follow trough, but nonetheless the major bearish monthly reversal got elected a day ago! Very bad.

Marty says:"  We can see that gold continues to consolidate. The Monthly Bearish is down at 1194 "  socrates says, january is (again) a big turnpoint

The Monthly Bullish Reversal  stands up at 1271 and 1362.50

 

 

The german DAX has a good turnpoint in October

The EUR / USD has a good turnpoint in January2019

I'd read that as the US markets turning down into October/November.

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17 hours ago, Swaize said:

marty still thinks, this will be a runaway bullmarket, no new lows.

Which low - the one at the end of last month in the Dow?

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You can watch those numbers to see when the action starts:

Netflix:

First of all, let me say, there are still bugs in Socrates:  today it shows a ridiculous number for the japanese yen. And on netflix there is also one mistake in numbers, where it says 0,29% up in 4 weeks is a phenomenal rise :huh:

The globalmarket watch said october important low, for netflix

a year-end closing below 19196 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 becomes possible. 

 our technical resistance stands at 32468 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 40337 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 29261. This provides a 27% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 42322 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 23610. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 44%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 31084, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. 

A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NetFlix Inc so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible

Want more?

 

NASDAQ Index:

our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 927394 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 708482

 Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 744200 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595.

(( another huuuge mistake:   Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2482 weeks  ))

monthly market watch says, preparing for breakout for this month.....

 

Dow:

We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2022. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 2471922 which is bullish

Our projected resistance stands above the market at 2590679 and a closing above that is necessary to signal any strong further upside advance. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2990642 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2410123. This provides a 19% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2661672 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2399720. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 9.84%

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10 hours ago, Swaize said:

Anyone been to the WEC conference?

I doubt the few posters left here have the kind of monies to invest to justify the cost of one of his conferences, including travelling costs.

I expect it is more aimed at institutional investors.

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I doubt I will exist to check if the 2046 forecast is correct, but hopefully will for the 2028 one.

Global Cooling is Real – Major Temperature Low 2046?

Quote

... Socrates was projecting that the peak on this cycle aligned with the ECM 2015.75. This is a Longitudinal Cycle, not Transverse. That means peak to bottom varies. This short-term wave should be a 13-year decline from 2015 making it 2028 initially. After that, if we see colder winters beyond 2028, then the next low will be with the peak in the ECM 2032. There is a SERIOUS RISK that we are looking at the final low coming in during the period of 2046.

 

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Martin Armstrongs trades that are upcoming are i think:

Trade a possible DJIA breakout

Trade a strong Dollar against EM currencies and the EURO

Shorting Banks 

Shorting Bonds especially Municipal

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5 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Leaves you speechless. The natives should hang Merkel & Co for what has been done to Europe - a heavy usurpation of their local culture.

European history has a track record as to what the likely eventual outcome will be.

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Well you cant forget that especially young voters are full of leftist lesbian vegans

which are all about, saving the planet, we are all one, stop consumerism, stop global warming (school protests today in australia?)

The new militants are now in many countries the Green Party! like in Italy

The counter is in many countries anti immigrants, like AfD or in Italy the North League (who wants to drive out the Roma population)

So you have left environmentalists (and we know how rational they are...)  and people who generally dont like immigrants out of principle

Common sense is lost to both...

Another problem is that trough social media, extreme comments get more attention. Plus the IQ in many places is sinking just low enough that most people (and brainwashed students) dont really understand complex subjects anymore!  In science too, the culture changed towards just getting funding instead of making REAL research.

 

I mean.... probably politics has OFTEN been like that, just childish and stupid debates instead of ACTUAL FACTS and debate trying to get to the BEST SOLUTION for the FUTURE of the country.

In China they make 5 year plans. In Singapore some plan for decades. In Europe? I cant remember the last time i heard a politician think like that, otherwise the Pension debate would look REALLY DIFFERENT and there would be more talk of soon-to-be empty buildings.

Talkshows could be about REAL ISSUES instead of a guy who f*cked 3 women at the same time....  There could be debate clubs. Forming an opinion together based on facts. 

I think its not even the politicians fault. I think the human species is just a TAD too stupid honestly. Germany has one of the higher average IQs but that means most of the World and all of Africa simply isnt smart enough to even have the low-quality debates Germany has. Then add that most countries arent exactly very democratic.... people just have too little influence! So it seems to me there is just no-one on the steering wheel!  

Just get out of harms way when the car rolls towards a cliff

Edited by Swaize

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12 hours ago, Swaize said:

Well you cant forget that especially young voters are full of leftist lesbian vegans

which are all about, saving the planet, we are all one, stop consumerism, stop global warming (school protests today in australia?)

The new militants are now in many countries the Green Party! like in Italy

The counter is in many countries anti immigrants, like AfD or in Italy the North League (who wants to drive out the Roma population)

So you have left environmentalists (and we know how rational they are...)  and people who generally dont like immigrants out of principle

Common sense is lost to both...

Another problem is that trough social media, extreme comments get more attention. Plus the IQ in many places is sinking just low enough that most people (and brainwashed students) dont really understand complex subjects anymore!  In science too, the culture changed towards just getting funding instead of making REAL research.

 

I mean.... probably politics has OFTEN been like that, just childish and stupid debates instead of ACTUAL FACTS and debate trying to get to the BEST SOLUTION for the FUTURE of the country.

In China they make 5 year plans. In Singapore some plan for decades. In Europe? I cant remember the last time i heard a politician think like that, otherwise the Pension debate would look REALLY DIFFERENT and there would be more talk of soon-to-be empty buildings.

Talkshows could be about REAL ISSUES instead of a guy who f*cked 3 women at the same time....  There could be debate clubs. Forming an opinion together based on facts. 

I think its not even the politicians fault. I think the human species is just a TAD too stupid honestly. Germany has one of the higher average IQs but that means most of the World and all of Africa simply isnt smart enough to even have the low-quality debates Germany has. Then add that most countries arent exactly very democratic.... people just have too little influence! So it seems to me there is just no-one on the steering wheel!  

Just get out of harms way when the car rolls towards a cliff

A highly polarised world tends to lead to a well known outcome throughout history to resolve the problem. It may be hard to get out of harms way.

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True,

i hear from some people in some countries that the anti foreigner sentiment is rising

probably in australia for chinese, in china for westerners, in europe maby too,  

That means if im a foreigner then that also sucks, but honestly, if you got a nice social circle with locals, then it doesnt matter so much. There is always a group of open mided people somewhere

I mean, absent cultural revolution in china,  jew killing nazis, and the like. And the jews were safe in america so no big deal and china was a sh*thole then anyway so good to leave.

I think if you go to Singapore this wont happen to you that you get killed for being white. if you go to GOOD places with future and growth and openness (like america back in the day)

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The Dax turnpoint of october seemed to have caught the high.

djia buy Signal from the slide of conference 
buy the dow on weekly close 26965 and monthly close 25588 DJIA

Edited by Swaize

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11 hours ago, Swaize said:

The Dax turnpoint of october seemed to have caught the high.

djia buy Signal from the slide of conference 
buy the dow on weekly close 26965 and monthly close 25588 DJIA

The Dow can still has a chance on the monthly close providing it does not break down completely

Capture.PNG

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On 12/6/2018 at 7:58 AM, Swaize said:

True,

i hear from some people in some countries that the anti foreigner sentiment is rising

probably in australia for chinese, in china for westerners, in europe maby too,  

That means if im a foreigner then that also sucks, but honestly, if you got a nice social circle with locals, then it doesnt matter so much. There is always a group of open mided people somewhere

I mean, absent cultural revolution in china,  jew killing nazis, and the like. And the jews were safe in america so no big deal and china was a sh*thole then anyway so good to leave.

I think if you go to Singapore this wont happen to you that you get killed for being white. if you go to GOOD places with future and growth and openness (like america back in the day)

I'm not sure what all the categories are in Australia, but I would list the anti-foreigner sentiment I have recently been listening to in probably this order of priority;

Muslims

Refugees

Africans

Sudanese

Chinese

Asian

Americans

Any other European country

New Zealanders!!!

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On 12/7/2018 at 8:31 AM, cobran20 said:

The Dow can still has a chance on the monthly close providing it does not break down completely

Capture.PNG

Broken down. Slingshot move ahead.

1.JPG

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On 11/11/2017 at 8:50 PM, cobran20 said:

Here is a prediction that Socrates can be measured on by the middle of next year

The Clear & Present Danger of a Global Cooling not Warming

This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. 

New record lows were set in many places and winter barely has began.

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