cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3981 posts in this topic

19 hours ago, cobran20 said:

Yesterday my mortgage finally hit zero so that makes sense in my world view :)

Thinking now of buying some index funds domiciled in Ireland (don't want to pay US estate taxes for no reason) through the company in Singapore (no tax on investments if that is not what the company is doing as a primary purpose).

I have no intention in trying to be a smart investor or anything but I assume interest rate increases would usually be good for bonds bought now and bad for S&P500 bought now.

No idea how a stronger dollar would impact things, both down?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/05/2018 at 6:07 PM, tor said:

Yesterday my mortgage finally hit zero so that makes sense in my world view :)

Thinking now of buying some index funds domiciled in Ireland (don't want to pay US estate taxes for no reason) through the company in Singapore (no tax on investments if that is not what the company is doing as a primary purpose).

I have no intention in trying to be a smart investor or anything but I assume interest rate increases would usually be good for bonds bought now and bad for S&P500 bought now.

No idea how a stronger dollar would impact things, both down?

Congrats!

10% interest rates was in reference to Europe. My understanding is that an increase in interest rates is bad for bonds not good. Armstrong also believes US stocks will perform well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bonds annoy me :) just when I think I remember how they work I realise I have forgotten and don't want to face reading up on them again... oh well they are considered an investment for old people anyway so I guess I'll just stick with the S&P index.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You should actually consider or do research on the Nikkei. It's been in a bear market for so long it will have to come good (or better) at some stage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bonds are in bad trouble when rates rise, cause the rates on YOUR bonds doesnt rise, only on NEW issues, so your bond has a low interest per year which then sucks compared to the new higher ones.

In my opinion stocks are quite high so i would advise to only TRADE them not to buy and hold them.

Im struggling myself to find investment opportunities actually. Commodities are historically cheap now....

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i thought about it again:

say a company has a certain costs and a certain profit margin and say they earn 12% per year then if you have 100$ of stocks you get 12$ per year 

when inflation rises and rises, their costs rise and they get a bit squeezed and also bonds might then give 8% so their 12% doesnt look as good anymore

but since rates keep rising you also dont want bonds! as the bonds of next year bear more interest than yours.

real estate should be really bad at the first 5 years since people go bankrubt with rising rates!!! so houses come to market.

 

so there is really only one thing to invest in: tangibles, commodities, prices of things that rise because costs to make them rise!  if you own a farm and your costs rise, that sucks. but if you just own wheat itself then its price rises with rising costs to produce it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Swaize said:

i thought about it again:

say a company has a certain costs and a certain profit margin and say they earn 12% per year then if you have 100$ of stocks you get 12$ per year 

when inflation rises and rises, their costs rise and they get a bit squeezed and also bonds might then give 8% so their 12% doesnt look as good anymore

but since rates keep rising you also dont want bonds! as the bonds of next year bear more interest than yours.

real estate should be really bad at the first 5 years since people go bankrubt with rising rates!!! so houses come to market.

 

so there is really only one thing to invest in: tangibles, commodities, prices of things that rise because costs to make them rise!  if you own a farm and your costs rise, that sucks. but if you just own wheat itself then its price rises with rising costs to produce it.

Every asset class has its moment in the sun. You just need to determine what will shine next, usually something that has been extremely oversold.

Since nothing rises forever, any asset class that has been at high prices for a while, will eventually deflate until it is oversold again.

Just need something like Socrates to fine tune the timing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes cheap is a good start, hated, neglected.

But also there needs to be a push for it to rise soon, otherwise it can be 3 years til it moves. Or one buys on obvious nice buy signals.

With commdities im unhappy because they are traded in dollars and when the dollar rises, they might get whacked down. After the dollar peaks, circumstances are much better, then you got no more headwind :)

That would be in 2-4 years according to marty

 

In my experience i made tons of money when i followed current bullmarkets and got out again before or after the top.

Its much quicker since its already rising. So say, gold goes above 1362, then the low was 3 years ago, so its a current bullmarket since many years.

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its funny to realize we are all prone to do this, predict rising prices while prices are rising, or hotter climate every year will make us paint scenarios of deserts

Thats how manias like bitcoin can happen. I predicted the bitcoin top and went out, because i could feel the mania happen inside myself, all the optimism i suddenly felt was a huge warning sign, we can use that knowledge to our advantage in the next gold and commodity bullmarket :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw a bullion dealer last week for the first time in ages. Sadly my favourite one died last year.

He said margins were competitive up until about 12 months ago, but since then dealers had increased their margins from spot. Unsure the reasons for this. Apparently if you're more than 2.5-3.0% off spot you're not competitively pricing, but there are dealers that can get away with 8% through size and reputation. I think gold is a good insurance policy but not necessarily a place to look for big returns.

I think commodities will be a good place to be, but (some) may actually decline if trade wars escalate between USA and China.

BTC seems to be following the classic bull market curve. I doubt there will be anything like the highs last year, at least not any time soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 17/08/2018 at 7:07 AM, cobran20 said:

What does a "waterfall to the downside" on a monthly basis mean? It could just be a 5% adjustment one month and then steady prices?

<rant>

I'm still cynical about the Australian real estate religion preached by the media. It is like the church of real estate demands that you pay all your current and future income just to be able to buy a house, that you scream at politicians to maintain stupid economic policies to boost property prices, campaign councils to never allow new housing anywhere, and sacrifice any hope of your children being able to buy a roof over their head in their lifetime. Crazy! Heck, one could think that Moloch worship is still alive and well by the media elite.

Last time I looked, the total Australian housing stock was worth 3-4 times the total market value of all companies on the ASX. How productive is that? It's like having an attitude of "Why should governments focus on jobs and prosperity generating new businesses, when you can just buy the same houses off each other for ever increasing prices?"

Even if there is still no moment of "waterfall to the downside" and time to pay the piper, a bit of foresight from the elite opinion leaders and politicians in society would have been a good thing. You can't fight the economic inevitable like Coyote hanging in mid-air.

</rant>

But I'm hypocritical too, I suppose. I miss Australia a lot, and nevertheless hope to buy a place over there again one day.

Edited by AndersB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, AndersB said:

What does a "waterfall to the downside" on a monthly basis mean? It could just be a 5% adjustment one month and then steady prices?

<rant>

I'm still cynical about the Australian real estate religion preached by the media. It is like the church of real estate demands that you pay all your current and future income just to be able to buy a house, that you scream at politicians to maintain stupid economic policies to boost property prices, campaign councils to never allow new housing anywhere, and sacrifice any hope of your children being able to buy a roof over their head in their lifetime. Crazy! Heck, one could think that Moloch worship is still alive and well by the media elite.

Last time I looked, the total Australian housing stock was worth 3-4 times the total market value of all companies on the ASX. How productive is that? It's like having an attitude of "Why should governments focus on jobs and prosperity generating new businesses, when you can just buy the same houses off each other for ever increasing prices?"

Even if there is still no moment of "waterfall to the downside" and time to pay the piper, a bit of foresight from the elite opinion leaders and politicians in society would have been a good thing. You can't fight the economic inevitable like Coyote hanging in mid-air.

</rant>

But I'm hypocritical too, I suppose. I miss Australia a lot, and nevertheless hope to buy a place over there again one day.

A monthly trend is long term. Waterfall means a serious drop. So over the next few years at least, Socrates is prediction a major downtrend in prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like he advised Alan Bond.

Real Estate & Understanding The Role of Debt

Quote

..... One of the reasons I have been blamed for creating the take over boom back in the 1980s, was that I had shown some of the takeover playing how to use currency. In the case of Alan Bond who bought all the Courage Pubs back then, we were borrowing in a currency that was declining against the pound. I showed him and others how to take debt and convert it into a performing asset. They were the fun times.

I don't think Bond's borrowers ended up laughing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@AndersB

The time to buy again in the USA is after 2030 sometime.

But then you will have to buy CASH

Maby similar timing applies to Australia?

 

The place to be is stocks til then! 

In my personal opinion especially tech-software-AI and all the good stuff that makes lots of cash, disintermediation, efficiency, or is at least new and hyped ;)

And of course shorting stuff, like bonds, real estate, banks, muni bonds, 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

--- NEWS ----

This year Socrates gets (probably) launched!

And this years WEC could be a bit interesting cause of Emerging Market Chaos starting!

There is still not really a place where people discuss Armstrongs writing and maby there wont be, cause of SPAM posts and different levels of skills and trading styles.

Maby there should be a closed private circle of similar minded people who are really activively engaged on a medium thats really convenient (not a forum) with mods and rules and posts who are to the point and no opinion allowed only facts?

So far only the WEC is suited to actually invest on the info. Maby the private blog too. But basically since November 2015 its just long the DJIA if WEC advice is followed!  So 10.000 would now be 14.000 with that strategy within 3 years. So the WEC delivered 12% unleveraged gains annually. The private blog gave clear levels to get out and in aldough a bit confusing and one has to really check the position every weekend.

The 3rd Socrates level however will give a much broader tool to base discussions on and trade other things.

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 22/08/2018 at 7:13 AM, cobran20 said:

Looks like he advised Alan Bond.

Real Estate & Understanding The Role of Debt

I don't think Bond's borrowers ended up laughing!

Aaand it's gone! The monthly waterfall event prediction, that is.

This is weird. The two Socrates images both show 8/22/2017 (22 August 2017) in the top right corner:

GMW-Real-Estate.jpg

Socrates-Real-Estate.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it doesnt work like that,

first of all this global market WATCH, is not predicting, it is describing the situation so far til this day so that you get a quick overview of whats bullish and whats bearish in the world, without looking at charts. 

also on your portfolio you can see the weekly go bearish on one of your stocks then you can check closer and investigate.

second it keeps changing until the month is finished. so only on the last day of the month its fixed, til then it changes!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From socrates: "

The A$ took out all FOUR Weekly Bearish Reversals as well. The political nonsense going on Downunder certainly does not help. The stronger the dollar gets, the higher the probability that Trump will just escalates the tariff issues. "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Swaize.

I'm not sure I understand your explanation fully, but it sounds like Socrates is a momentum gauge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Basically im saying, the global market watch is JUST to get a quick overview over your portfolio with nice colours. The global market watch IS already available (i have it) and is just meant as an overview. Ah commodities are all red so bear market, ah bank stocks are starting to turn red on the weekly, whats going on there? Like that, you know.

The REAL Socrates is actually forecasting turnpoints in the future, and gives trade signals with its Reversals when they get elected,  Reversals, Arrays, Turnpoints and is NOT YET available except to Marty. But this is what he wants to release this year to everyone (with enough cash to spare)

 

Edited by Swaize

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Socrates had a BIG turnpoint in 20.August and the next is November/December, so we can expect a move into November/December now in the USA Stock market!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Swaize said:

Socrates had a BIG turnpoint in 20.August and the next is November/December, so we can expect a move into November/December now in the USA Stock market!

a move up or down into November/December?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now