cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3965 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, Swaize said:

i guess this time government will just steal the pensions cause goldman aint gonna bail them out lol ;)

They will probably have to takeover government pension schemes as they go bankrupt from being forced to buy 'safe' government bonds, paying next to nothing in yield.

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On 3/10/2018 at 6:07 PM, Swaize said:

Hey thanks for the tip!

I love mountainbiking, will make a mental notoce to get myself a bike by spring.

What about strength training using body weight or max 20kg? How is that on the joints?

From what I have put together from studies I have read and observing the older sensei (say 80+ years old) in various martial arts which I do ranging from insanely physical to quite sedate I think the two things are very different.

General activity for a few 30 minute sessions a week is super great for your mental well being which seems to translate into pretty decent physical ability in the "as expected" range. Like some shodou (japanese calligraphy) sensei I know are old but way more "alive" (for want of a better word) than many of the other old people I know of the same age range. Mostly I attribute this to just being involved in life. Good shodou requires you to use core muscles but it is hardly what most would consider a work out. I get more inky than sweaty. Similar for things like tai chi (although I don't do that and can only comment based on watching).

Endurance stuff keeps you skinny sick. Long distance cycling running etc. People are physically good looking but only as healthy as their lifestyle would suggest. Pretty much the same as shodou except skinnier.

Amateur high impact stuff focussing on stamina is ridiculously bad for you at any level above casual, especially if you "single thing it". I am only 46 and I am experiencing a few problems from this (despite not really being a single thing guy).  I had an eye opening about what I was doing to myself when I went to an event where certain groups 80+ guys were basically useless geriatrics at anything except that one thing they do (and not even really that good at that, they just had 60 yrs of knowledge).

Amateur high impact stuff done in short bursts is good for you. If you are doing weights for example don't f*ck around with an hour in the gym lifting something you can lift for an hr. Get in and out with 10 minutes of actual lifting over an hr.

Amateur high impact stuff done in an environment which has semi professional guidance is insanely good for you. I've been training a sh*tload of japanese bayonet fencing over the past two years (maybe 20hrs a week). It is a martial art almost exclusively practised by the military who, unsurprisingly, don't view days off with much happiness. Due to the pedagogy being handed down via instructors whose job it is to ensure you are ready to go fight a war or help disaster victims there are some very simple and notable differences.

So I guess I would say chose something which is sprint oriented with a community aspect - "lift hard, lift heavy then go to the pub" (and has a low injury rate due to decent instructors) or "hang out with friends then go to the pub". Depending on what physical appearance you are after.

Mountain biking I would not put in the range of sensible options if you even faintly want to try having fun. Injury rate is too high. Strength training with body weight looks like maybe okay but you want a good coach and realistically heavy weight lifting has more studies into damage and how to avoid it and coaches that have proven track records.

If some one does a stretch session at the end of the class rather than the beginning it is always a good sign, everyone else is an idiot.

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On 9/22/2016 at 10:14 PM, Swaize said:

Interesting cobran, so the first support according to soc is around your trendline and the price i expect would break it. The dollar rally can make the chart pattern quite crazy like 2008 so lets watch that trendline, cause once it breaks....

 

Medved, sure, Rubel and Aussi-Dollar?

Just remember both currencies will be measured against the USD, which makes it interesting for everyone as it can be used to see when the dollar rallye starts!  Please help me watch those levels and post when turning points or levels are in the range :)

Disclaimer, this is all my interpretation from numbers and bars from Marty and is ment to test and show how his system works and how good it is:

 

In Rubel there is a quarterly turnpoint next quarter, if thats a high (strong rubel) then it could decline into next turn-quarter October2017

Rubel has a monthly turnpoint NOW!  and around Jan/Feb   (there is also a possible one in Nov)

This and next month have panic cylcles, directional change and volatility so there could be some action aldough the weekly array shows lots of turnpoints and the pattern since may has been mainly flat. 

The first sell signal on the various levels are in Rubel Futures:

Daily 0,1514

Weekly 0,1486

Monthly 0,1328

 

A$ is pretty bearish:

Shouldnt be able to exceed 0,8056 monthly close

Strong Weekly support is 0,71

Monthly Support is way down at 0.5577  monthly close

2018 is a big yearly turnpoint, could be the low in A$ and a high in US$ most probably around the second quarter 2018

 

Since the two most important things are the Pension Crysis and the Government Bond collapse:

Australian 90day Bonds have been making new highs and have a turnpoint in October(next month) and then April2017 then October 2017

According to the yearly array there should be lots of action into 2018 so worth to watch.

If the 90day bonds close below 97 monthly then watch out! The price of the 10year bond is easyer to look up, there it would be a monthly close below 96,83 and there the high should be now, the pattern recognition already says CAUTION and the decline could go down into 2019

 

All Ordinairies has a turnpoint in 2019

A monthly close below the obvious support at  4885 would kill all hopes of new highs

In Euros and US-Dollar it looks like a phase transition that peaked.

For now, choppyness is likely.

 

As for Gold, Marty is still looking for the low, the only time i can see for that is roughly around the area of mid 2017

Marty is looking for Jan/Feb 2017 but then maby his Socrates shows him other quarterly turnpoints than mine, which also happened with silver, mine showing October, his showing November2016 as next turnpoint. So then we get a span from January2017 --> September2017 

I am SO curious if he is gonna be right on this one, that we get another nice buying opportunity :)

April 2017 - minor top

October 2017 - final low in yields

As to 'there should be lots of action into 2018 ', see the attached and decide for yourself.

IMO, Armstrong/Socrates was largely on the money! 

1.JPG

Edited by cobran20

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On 3/10/2018 at 6:07 PM, Swaize said:

Hey thanks for the tip!

I love mountainbiking, will make a mental notoce to get myself a bike by spring.

What about strength training using body weight or max 20kg? How is that on the joints?

Swaize - this site is awesome, best on the internet  - http://roguehealthandfitness.com/

For exercise I recommend:

  • high intensity weight training (HIT)
  • high-intensity interval training

Weight training is the best thing for health IMO. I am skinny so only lift low weights, but HIT requires slow movements so you end up using lower weights anyway. From what I understand was invented by a German bodybuilder named Metzner. Endurance training like jogging/running is mostly badly for you in the long run compared to pumping iron. You'll never see me jogging on a tread mill.

Interval training can be as little as 10-15 minute sessions. You basically alternative between 100% all out pace and rest/slow pace. My preference is for a stationary bicycle. You can use an assault bike where you also move your arms but is a much harder workout.

If you add general walking then that's all you need. The best bit is if you train hard you can train less, both in terms of duration and frequency.

So pretty much what Tor said.

The following are what I recommend for good health:

Diet

  • Ketogenic diet (low/no carbohydrates)
  • Intermittent fasting (16-20 hours a day; I normally do around 16)
  • Calorie control/portion size control

Exercise

  • High intensity weight training; train to failure (HIT)
  • High intensity interval training (HIIT)
  • Moderate amounts of low-level exercise like walking, yoga, tai chi, etc.

Rest

  • Sleep - lack of sleep is a silent killer!
  • Adequate recovery periods between training sessions
  • "flow" activity such as playing the guitar (or calligraphy, etc.)

There's other stuff like social interaction, clean air and environment (mould is really bad for health), sunlight, specific nutrients (magnesium, vitamins D, K, etc.), sauna/banya/sweating, skin scrubs, sex, laughter, dental hygiene but the above are the key things IMO.

Also to not give a f--- about anything because stress is really, really bad for your health. 

With very few exceptions I no longer eat grains, starchy vegetables (potatoes, etc.), soy, fruits, milk, alcohol, juices, vegetable oils and most processed foods. I stick to water, meat/fish, eggs, salad/above ground vegetables, some cheeses (low/no carbs like dodoni feta) and on occasions olive oil, butter, avocado, yoghurt, cream, berries, and cacao powder/99% dark chocolate. Most days I just eat meat/fish/eggs, salads and drink water. It's somewhat limiting but I feel great and don't want to return to carbs.

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Forgot to mention nuts - try not to eat too much but also in the dietary mix. Normally keep away from cashews, pistachios and peanuts. I was told pecans are good for prostates, tasty too! Macadamia, almond, and brazil nuts along with pecans the best options (walnuts not so bad).

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Wow amazing guys thank you! :)

Many tips on health and exercise and a recoup of martys prediction i posted a while ago, a great day :)

Will read everything carefully and i have this for us today: "Dow Jones

As long as we close March at the end of next week BELOW 24740, then consolidation should continue. 

A closing above 23486 for March will continue to warn that we are not in a meltdown risk mode.

The next two MAJOR targets in Time are May, which has a minor Panic Cycle, and July, which shows up as big volatility. We must keep in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may still be in process headed into a May high. If we elect a Monthly Bearish at the end of March, then this would imply a May low.

Congress stuck in the budget very quietly a bill to bailout 200 pensions plans. They are becoming aware of the real problems. It does not appear that Draghi will be able to get out the door in 2019 BEFORE the Crisis begins to hit. We are looking at an intense period beginning this year"

"It does appear that the important turning point will be July and the second half of the year we should begin to see the trend emerge. Interest rates are still poised to move sharply higher. This will add confusing, but they will be the catalyst for change. German rates are still negative on the bunds and this is really just a bet against the Euro where they expect to get Deutsche marks. That trade will not work out. The trade will remain the move to the dollar."

 

 

Goooold:

"Gold is shaping up showing that the second half of 2018 should be the volatile period and November will be a Panic Cycle 

May will be a key turning point and the two Reversals we must pay attention to are 1362.50 on a monthly basis and 1347 on a quarterly closing basis coming into play for March. We need to cross both of these Reversals to negate a decline short-term.

2019 is a Panic Cycle Year so the risk of a decline cannot be ruled out until we pass 2020. Because we are at a major crossroads at last, 

 

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Cobran 

Thanks for the recap and keeping an eye on markets,  awesome!

So the ruble didnt elect any of the weekly or monthly bearish and stayed stable. Turnpoints 1q2017 and 4q2017 were relatively accurate.

A$ did indeed stay below the 0.80 on a monthly close. There 2018 is a turnpoint which so far looks more like a low in dollar. (Marty expects a 2021 dollar high)

My quick allords interpretation was wrong as it went up. I couldnt see any turnpoints and indeed there was a nice clear trend so far. I should have written some bullish reversals. Next time...

A-Bonds i interpreted from socrates in sept2016: "If the 90day bonds close below 97 monthly then watch out! The price of the 10year bond is easyer to look up, there it would be a monthly close below 96,83 and there the high should be now"   this still has to come to fruition. The Bond market Crash!

The roughly september turnpoint 2017 i saw in in gold gave the high. Nice. Marty was looking for a low jan2017, not perfectly accurate but yes that was clearly the low.

I dont have THAT kind of access to socrates anymore, that was beta testing. the final trader version will come out this year dough. This is from the investor level access: Gold "Thu. Mar. 1, 2018 at 130360. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the monthly Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. "

I think this sort of real life testing with accountability in public is extremely valuable to see the possibilities and limits of the system! Also i think this is the time-scale its designed for. Monthly to quarterly with the weekly to fine tune and the yearly to see major shifts ahead. Looking at Martys own trades back in the day, his trades seemed to be mostly a couple weeks to months, catching the nice downmoves. He says in panics and crashes the system become better.

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8 minutes ago, Swaize said:

Cobran 

Thanks for the recap and keeping an eye on markets,  awesome!

So the ruble didnt elect any of the weekly or monthly bearish and stayed stable. Turnpoints 1q2017 and 4q2017 were relatively accurate.

A$ did indeed stay below the 0.80 on a monthly close. There 2018 is a turnpoint which so far looks more like a low in dollar. (Marty expects a 2021 dollar high)

My quick allords interpretation was wrong as it went up. I couldnt see any turnpoints and indeed there was a nice clear trend so far. I should have written some bullish reversals. Next time...

A-Bonds i interpreted from socrates in sept2016: "If the 90day bonds close below 97 monthly then watch out! The price of the 10year bond is easyer to look up, there it would be a monthly close below 96,83 and there the high should be now"   this still has to come to fruition. The Bond market Crash!

The roughly september turnpoint 2017 i saw in in gold gave the high. Nice. Marty was looking for a low jan2017, not perfectly accurate but yes that was clearly the low.

I dont have THAT kind of access to socrates anymore, that was beta testing. the final trader version will come out this year dough. This is from the investor level access: Gold "Thu. Mar. 1, 2018 at 130360. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the monthly Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. "

I think this sort of real life testing with accountability in public is extremely valuable to see the possibilities and limits of the system! Also i think this is the time-scale its designed for. Monthly to quarterly with the weekly to fine tune and the yearly to see major shifts ahead. Looking at Martys own trades back in the day, his trades seemed to be mostly a couple weeks to months, catching the nice downmoves. He says in panics and crashes the system become better.

The yields cracked 2% last week. But they look very overbought, so a correction is probably around the corner.

1.JPG

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90day australian bond is at 98$ according to socrates. Coming closer to the 97 level. 

Marty recently warned about interbank lending rate rising and the crysis has started!

When bond rates rise, value of pension fund owned bonds decline. This makes the pension crysis worse and fast.

 

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1 hour ago, Swaize said:

90day australian bond is at 98$ according to socrates. Coming closer to the 97 level. 

Marty recently warned about interbank lending rate rising and the crysis has started!

When bond rates rise, value of pension fund owned bonds decline. This makes the pension crysis worse and fast.

 

$98=2%

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On 3/26/2018 at 7:22 AM, Swaize said:

Wow amazing guys thank you! :)

Many tips on health and exercise and a recoup of martys prediction i posted a while ago, a great day :)

Will read everything carefully and i have this for us today: "Dow Jones

As long as we close March at the end of next week BELOW 24740, then consolidation should continue. 

A closing above 23486 for March will continue to warn that we are not in a meltdown risk mode.

The next two MAJOR targets in Time are May, which has a minor Panic Cycle, and July, which shows up as big volatility. We must keep in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may still be in process headed into a May high. If we elect a Monthly Bearish at the end of March, then this would imply a May low.

Congress stuck in the budget very quietly a bill to bailout 200 pensions plans. They are becoming aware of the real problems. It does not appear that Draghi will be able to get out the door in 2019 BEFORE the Crisis begins to hit. We are looking at an intense period beginning this year"

"It does appear that the important turning point will be July and the second half of the year we should begin to see the trend emerge. Interest rates are still poised to move sharply higher. This will add confusing, but they will be the catalyst for change. German rates are still negative on the bunds and this is really just a bet against the Euro where they expect to get Deutsche marks. That trade will not work out. The trade will remain the move to the dollar."

 

 

Goooold:

"Gold is shaping up showing that the second half of 2018 should be the volatile period and November will be a Panic Cycle 

May will be a key turning point and the two Reversals we must pay attention to are 1362.50 on a monthly basis and 1347 on a quarterly closing basis coming into play for March. We need to cross both of these Reversals to negate a decline short-term.

2019 is a Panic Cycle Year so the risk of a decline cannot be ruled out until we pass 2020. Because we are at a major crossroads at last, 

 

So we're heading for a May low?

1.JPG

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Silver

"The important number on the upside is $18.90. A monthly and quarterly closing above this number will signal that we are start to move to the upside to test the major numbers at $21.63 and $23.10. The equivalent to the breakout number of significant is $21.63."

so here marty is looking at defining what the signal is for the next silver bullmarket!

 

Dow Jones

 

"We did not elect the key Weekly Bearish Reversal which remains at 23250. Had we elected that one, then we should expect immediate follow-through. We can bounce into tomorrow and then turn down into next week. Creating a low the week of 04/02 would ideally bounce thereafter.

It does appear that we should test the monthly support level 22415. The question becomes when, the week of 04/02 or at the end of the month. A rally into next week would then imply a declining trend into the end of the month and that could spill-over into May intraday but then rally leaving April as the lowest close."

 

I want to state two things here:

The quarterly silver reversals i just gave you all, are basically marty saying, when silver closes a quarter above 18.90$ the bullmarket starts! Its like a prediction. 21.63$ quarterly close is the second buy signal, saying, DUDE silver is going up now over the next years!

So this is Marty predicting the next bullmarket and also giving 2 buy signals to get in!!!

In 2024 we can review this and go:" thank god i sold real estate bavk then and bought silver! :)

And the second thing i wanna say is, Marty expects a Dollar high around 2021 so if we get the silver buy signal 2018,2019 then look out for the dollar rallye and brace, or if we get the signal AFTER the dollar rallye then buy silver with both hands ;)

Edited by Swaize

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5 hours ago, Swaize said:

Silver

"The important number on the upside is $18.90. A monthly and quarterly closing above this number will signal that we are start to move to the upside to test the major numbers at $21.63 and $23.10. The equivalent to the breakout number of significant is $21.63."

so here marty is looking at defining what the signal is for the next silver bullmarket!

 

Dow Jones

 

"We did not elect the key Weekly Bearish Reversal which remains at 23250. Had we elected that one, then we should expect immediate follow-through. We can bounce into tomorrow and then turn down into next week. Creating a low the week of 04/02 would ideally bounce thereafter.

It does appear that we should test the monthly support level 22415. The question becomes when, the week of 04/02 or at the end of the month. A rally into next week would then imply a declining trend into the end of the month and that could spill-over into May intraday but then rally leaving April as the lowest close."

 

I want to state two things here:

The quarterly silver reversals i just gave you all, are basically marty saying, when silver closes a quarter above 18.90$ the bullmarket starts! Its like a prediction. 21.63$ quarterly close is the second buy signal, saying, DUDE silver is going up now over the next years!

So this is Marty predicting the next bullmarket and also giving 2 buy signals to get in!!!

In 2024 we can review this and go:" thank god i sold real estate bavk then and bought silver! :)

And the second thing i wanna say is, Marty expects a Dollar high around 2021 so if we get the silver buy signal 2018,2019 then look out for the dollar rallye and brace, or if we get the signal AFTER the dollar rallye then buy silver with both hands ;)

His call on Silver last September has proved to be accurate. The July 2017 high has not been exceeded.

So US$18.90 is now the key number.

1.JPG

2.JPG

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On 11/11/2017 at 8:50 PM, cobran20 said:

Here is a prediction that Socrates can be measured on by the middle of next year

The Clear & Present Danger of a Global Cooling not Warming

This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. We are in a global cooling period and all the data we have in our computer system warns that the earth is turning cold not warm...

It would be fair to say that Socrates' prediction was on the money.

Do we have the latest prediction from the globull warming crowd as to exactly when we burn in hell? :D

Edited by cobran20

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Well marty focuses on europe, which is smart cause there we got data. Its more scientific that way.

This winter DEFINITELY got much colder than usual also in the usa. Spring, feb march was also much colder. I think it was Dezember? Or january? that was warm/mild in some european countries. -14C° MAX daytime temp freezes phone holding fingers immediatly, i now know everything below 6C° is only fun with snow sun and good wool clothing. I might return to my routine of spending winters elsewhere.

I want to thank you guys for tips, i started doing some sport and feel better :)

Edited by Swaize

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Originally marty suggested 2016 should be the peak for highend real estate. Seems he was 1.5years off.

Then in september-november 2017 he wrote this is it, highend real estate should be sold immediatly and is crashing. Now after the 1.st quarter 2018 numbers are in, we see the decline and trend change!  8% down in New York

The next low should be 2033 so get ready to buy again within our lifetimes cause by then we will need cash to buy, not credit ;)

Edited by Swaize

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marty sees consolidation into june, euro has peaked, dollar might have bottomed and dollar WILL RALLY INTO 2021 this will be historic

latin america will totally suffer, imagine the deflation! asias corporations also borrow in dollars a lot, ouch. watch the hongkong peg breaking!

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Lots of countries have issued USD-denominated bonds. They will be cactus. It's like the people who took out mortgages in foreign currencies, only it's whole countries which will feel the pain.

Will see global deflation IMO until the next version of QE is announced.

Pegs always break and the HKG will be no different, just a matter of timing. They have insane price-to-income ratios for housing too. I think if there is financial strife the mainland will step in to exert its influence.

I keep forgetting to buy more USD! I'll need to do that next week. As I watch the RUB it's interesting to see that it is weakening along with the AUD against the USD. I think commodity currencies may be in for a bit of pain if we see serious deflation.

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48 minutes ago, Mr Medved said:

Lots of countries have issued USD-denominated bonds. They will be cactus. It's like the people who took out mortgages in foreign currencies, only it's whole countries which will feel the pain.

Will see global deflation IMO until the next version of QE is announced.

Pegs always break and the HKG will be no different, just a matter of timing. They have insane price-to-income ratios for housing too. I think if there is financial strife the mainland will step in to exert its influence.

I keep forgetting to buy more USD! I'll need to do that next week. As I watch the RUB it's interesting to see that it is weakening along with the AUD against the USD. I think commodity currencies may be in for a bit of pain if we see serious deflation.

Only a few countries issue bonds in USD. 

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1 hour ago, zaph said:

Only a few countries issue bonds in USD. 

There is a few here in this 4 year old article. As the US interest rates rise, so most likely will the $US and they'll struggle to repay the bonds just like the Club Med countries with their Euro borrowings after the GFC, requirng bailouts.

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On 5/3/2018 at 5:22 PM, Swaize said:

marty sees consolidation into june, euro has peaked, dollar might have bottomed and dollar WILL RALLY INTO 2021 this will be historic

latin america will totally suffer, imagine the deflation! asias corporations also borrow in dollars a lot, ouch. watch the hongkong peg breaking!

Argentina is there already.

link

link2

Edited by cobran20

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yeah brazil had bad years cause of low soja price

venezuela cause of low oil price

now argentina is toasting

but the low for that region should be 2018-2021 and it should be bought, as 2024 is a commodity HIGH!  and south america has lots of growing potential anyway.

 

As for banks, get usd cash 50$ notes

get gold physical

get local currency cash

Maby some water, some food(dont overdo it and store food you actually eat anyway and keep eating and renewing)  

IF there is a pandemic in 2019-2020 like marty thinks, stay healthy :)   

 

 

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