cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3917 posts in this topic

On 2/3/2018 at 11:35 PM, Swaize said:

I also think the poles left. what i mean is that now the ukrainians in poland will leave poland

 

something for ya from the conference for the predictions corner, longterm view: What lies Ahead

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Dollar high should be 2021

Monetary crysis a bit after that obviously

Bank Collapse

Precious should have a high around 2020-24

Decline in Bonds for quite a while due to rising rates

You might notice it doesnt say: "italy will go bankrubt and split up into regions, flee to the hills"  cause that is after 2030

My god, its like 12 years til Europe is definitely doomed. So much still to do!

 

 

The 'advantage' of those long term forecasts is that people will forget it at the time if it is wrong and/or the guru is probably dead as well. :-)

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I would have thought all the above were obvious over the longer term except for #1 (stock markets the best hedge).

  1. Not obvious
  2. Been a while since a bull market in precious metals (cyclical)
  3. Mega-long bull market in bonds (cyclical)
  4. Governments are massively in debt, so will resort to higher taxation (somewhat cyclical)
  5. European banks are carrying so much sovereign debt, so shouldn't be a massive surprise
  6. Value of USD will rise as bonds default, particularly USD bonds issued by foreign countries (not unprecedented)
  7. World reserve currency has always shifted (cyclical)

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@Mr Medved 

i wont even go into this, cause german women below age 40 themselves are just totally brainf*cked with this gender and equality bullsh*t. also they are leftist as and totally politically confused. then the nazi issue. i mean its..... hach  the discussions go from rational immediatly into: "what you dont conform, you dont allign with the accepted official opinion?" emotional amotional emotional blabla 

Look, Europe is f*cked. Western europe is full of migrants and eastern europe is empty, the youth left and devoid of economic innovation or vision. A cute girl i flirted with in Czech republic said she wants out because she feels her people are like "monkeys" or retards culturally and economically.

Asia has places that are like the wild west, like cambodia where you can buy passports, thailand where you can buy any contraband you like, philipines where the police can be your friend and be bribed and paid off to allow you anything instead of like in the usa where they attack you and you have to pay them just so they leave you alone.

Im not saying Asia is paradise, just that its a whole different world, growing, blossoming, you got Singapore that is relatively nice, you got Hongkong with its financial system and opportunities.

I tried finding the least terrible country in europe, its probably denmark,netherlands,switzerland, or something like that, but its all full of tourists, full of feminism and emancipation way expensive and just no fun. Not at all like australia in 1980 chill and drink, more like work career work sterile maby 1 child, work some more, wages declining, pensions evaporating, being rich and successful here is now uncool imagine... people want to work a lot because that is deemed good but not become rich and not have kids...

When you think about it, during the 19th century really only 2 places were good to be, Switzerland(safe from WW2) and USA and there mostly SanFrancisco and the Eastcoast. Culturally Switzerland was a hinterland until 1960 so really only the USA then. So... if we now look where you wanna be for the next 50 years there also should only really be ONE 1 obvious best place. I would vote for Asia in general and HongKong, Singapore and maby Malaysia Philipines. Just look where the good Universities produce the next innovation wave! 

to cobran,

those are not the longterm forecasts haha :)  these are just 6 years out if you incluse the forecast for a commodity bullmarket into 2023/24

 there is one for the 2040s and russia that i find quite interesting. Saying the oligarch system will collapse there. That one is certainly beyond Martys lifespan, except Ray Kurzweil is right haha by the way, AMD NVIDIA and intel are soon running into the 7nm brick wall, where they cant make their chips any better. So all the tech-utopia probably wont happen........ on silicon chips. It might just be enough to get 4k Virtual Reality, maximum 8k resolution then they have to find completely new technology. We should look out for carbon-nanotube or quantum computer chips bringing in a new era of moores law processing power growth.

Edited by Swaize

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Socrates on the Dow Jones:

THE high is not in yet

"

. It appears that we are extending the cycle so we do not expect this target we had in the 25,000-28,000 level to remain as the major high. This will clearly undermine people's confidence and it may send more capital into the waiting arms of government hawking their bonds.

We elected the last two Daily Bearish and avoided the Bullish, but the closing at 24,345.75 is below our opening projection for tomorrow at 24,411. Opening beneath that tomorrow implies new lows but we do not expect to breach the Monthly Support zone in the mid 22,000 level.

"

Would be nice if finally after 2 years of promises the socrates trader version would come out :)

From Socrates on the dollar index:

" Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 92270 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 87914 " March is a turnpoint

 

Martin Armstrongs Socrates on the Euro: "  Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 12532 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 11915.  " this means 1,1915 is the first sign of weakness in euro / dolllar

 

Aussi dollar against USD: " Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 12692 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 12307. This provides a 3.03% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 14290 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 11706. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 18%.  "

NY Gold from Socrates: " Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135340 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.61% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 111520. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%. 
The last event was a low established during 2016. 
On our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point is due come March in NY Gold Nearest Futures "

Martin Armstrong put Bitcoin on Socrates recently, so i thought i spend 3 dollars and provide the analysis here: "   the last important high was established the week of December 18th at 1872382, which was up 72 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 1st of 2016.

 Only a close above 7379.38 would imply a retest of the previous high. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 1452640 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 818437. This provides a 43% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 33.941.94 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 3505.70 This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 89%. 

 

Enjoy :)

Edited by Swaize

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5 hours ago, Swaize said:

@Mr Medved 

i wont even go into this, cause german women below age 40 themselves are just totally brainf*cked with this gender and equality bullsh*t. also they are leftist as and totally politically confused. then the nazi issue. i mean its..... hach  the discussions go from rational immediatly into: "what you dont conform, you dont allign with the accepted official opinion?" emotional amotional emotional blabla 

Look, Europe is f*cked. Western europe is full of migrants and eastern europe is empty, the youth left and devoid of economic innovation or vision. A cute girl i flirted with in Czech republic said she wants out because she feels her people are like "monkeys" or retards culturally and economically.

Asia has places that are like the wild west, like cambodia where you can buy passports, thailand where you can buy any contraband you like, philipines where the police can be your friend and be bribed and paid off to allow you anything instead of like in the usa where they attack you and you have to pay them just so they leave you alone.

Im not saying Asia is paradise, just that its a whole different world, growing, blossoming, you got Singapore that is relatively nice, you got Hongkong with its financial system and opportunities.

I tried finding the least terrible country in europe, its probably denmark,netherlands,switzerland, or something like that, but its all full of tourists, full of feminism and emancipation way expensive and just no fun. Not at all like australia in 1980 chill and drink, more like work career work sterile maby 1 child, work some more, wages declining, pensions evaporating, being rich and successful here is now uncool imagine... people want to work a lot because that is deemed good but not become rich and not have kids...

When you think about it, during the 19th century really only 2 places were good to be, Switzerland(safe from WW2) and USA and there mostly SanFrancisco and the Eastcoast. Culturally Switzerland was a hinterland until 1960 so really only the USA then. So... if we now look where you wanna be for the next 50 years there also should only really be ONE 1 obvious best place. I would vote for Asia in general and HongKong, Singapore and maby Malaysia Philipines. Just look where the good Universities produce the next innovation wave! 

If you follow the five flag model then doing banking in Hong Kong and business in Singapore is probably a good idea, but I'm not sure I'd want to live in either (haven't been to either but know people who have lived and worked there). A woman I work with moved from Singapore to Melbourne as it is much nicer for families. She also said that the work culture is a lot more relaxed.

I recall Marc Faber recommending Kazakhstan as a place to move to. Although that would be a feasible option for me, and many countries now have visa-free travel for short periods, it's not that nice IMO. Almaty is a great city but bad air pollution and in a seismic active area. Friends tell me Astana isn't very nice, and all other cities are relatively small and limited in opportunity.

I think it's better to try and set yourself up so you have multiple residencies. Adaptability is key.

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Okay i respect that in times of unvertainty, having options feels good and safe.

I also think that if we just pick the right ones, the obviously good choices from the start, then we live much better quality lives, we can integrate, settle, have friends there.

Kazakhstan has a terrible climate too hot in Summer and -20C° in Winter, ((just to give you an idea, til +5C° you can just put on a thick down-jacket, at 0C° you need serious ear-protection, but at -5C° your nose freezes when breathing! At -20C° you cant be outside long as almost no clothing is enough then, except if you work with your muscles like hiking up a mountain. Kazakhstan also relies mostly on their oil, thats not sustainable longterm, lacks clean water and soil,  is in the middle of nowhere so no links, ties, network effect. Someone from India or someone who speaks russian....maby. Thats like Jim Rogers saying Russia is great, just before it tanks massively in 2015 :) These guys....

I think in looong-Trends following the crowd is much better! Everyone saw how cool Switzerland is after WW2 with its banking, so, just move there and have a great 60 years! Same in Asia, Singapore, Hongkong, Malaysia its really easy to spot the better ones. The same in Europe, Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland they are SO much better equipped for the future than Italy,Germany for example. By the way i have a prediction on Denmarks soon to come Housing Crash on my blog, if youre interested in real estate there ;)

It takes decades to make a great country, so if the foundations arent there, then it wont happen. Take Singapore. Stunning management and super low taxes and boom!

Take Africa, lots of resources, bad management, no education, mostly a population of children age-wise  and.....well what do you expect? Its time will come. Maby 2060 according to my projections.

Edited by Swaize

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Quick update on Martys view of the Dow:

He sees two scenarios:

either we make a low THIS year and slingshot up higher immediatly

or we correct longer, for example into 2020

Following the Reversals will keep you on the right side

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What confuses me is that 1931 stocks didnt really Rally per se when the sovereign debt crysis broke out and states defaulted.

Actually stocks peaked in 1928/29 and crashed into the start of when the sovereign debt crysis started and bonds also collapsed WITH stocks into 1933 

THEN stocks rallied yes, after the debt crysis had already started.

So stocks really rally before and after but not during a sovereign debt crysis and not as a safety heaven during a debt crysis as one would think of like cash or gold, i dont know where marty gets his ideas, just history seems to tell a different story at least regarding the price action of stocks

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update on gold as its near the breakout level:

" our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 111520. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%. 

The last event was a low established during 2016. 

A possible change in trend appears due come March in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. "

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On 2/16/2018 at 0:27 AM, Swaize said:

Quick update on Martys view of the Dow:

He sees two scenarios:

either we make a low THIS year and slingshot up higher immediatly

or we correct longer, for example into 2020

Following the Reversals will keep you on the right side

I thought Armstrong is looking for stocks to correct again for a low in mid-march? That would line up with the forecast of a rally in gold around the same time.

I'm not sure that gold is still considered the safe haven as in the past. It has lost its physical portability if you need to skip the country as happened around 75 years ago.

Crypto seems to be the modern gold, but it also has its vulnerabilities.

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6 hours ago, Swaize said:

What confuses me is that 1931 stocks didnt really Rally per se when the sovereign debt crysis broke out and states defaulted.

Actually stocks peaked in 1928/29 and crashed into the start of when the sovereign debt crysis started and bonds also collapsed WITH stocks into 1933 

THEN stocks rallied yes, after the debt crysis had already started.

So stocks really rally before and after but not during a sovereign debt crysis and not as a safety heaven during a debt crysis as one would think of like cash or gold, i dont know where marty gets his ideas, just history seems to tell a different story at least regarding the price action of stocks

Different times then as currencies were gold backed (commodity currencies).

Countries that went off the gold standard seemed to fare better than the USA, for example the UK and Australia dropped it. The US confiscation was about devaluation. These days currencies are completely fungible so central banks have greater ability to devalue currencies. Also greater risk of crack-up booms IMO given this is the case... the last 8-9 years may been been just that.

Also, capital flows is something that Armstrong talks a lot about (as do others), so you need to consider that too.

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Well THAT is a very interesting thought.

So youre saying back when gold was money, they had to devalue or confiscate or whatever and now they just do QE. So the risk of inflation would have increased right?

Evidence shows the last biggest inflation was 1980 when they went OFF the gold standard.

I think there is one problem here: HUUUGE DEFLATIONARY DEBT!!!

They can inflate and make food prices higher, but then Deflation will mean people still hoard their money and still dont spend and the economy still contracts, because of lack of confidence.

But you do make a strong case for owning inflation-protected assets like gold.  

Marty himself sees rates rising because of  bankrubty, loss of confidence, ending of QE and bond buying. Commodities rising cycle should also kick in, into 2024.

From the breakout after 2008, gold almost doubled. If that happens again into 2024 it would be about the 2400 number marty often writes about being the inflation adjusted 1980 high. Thats about 180% gains from here in 6 years, thats about 13% gains annually.

As for movability, Gold is heavy, dont want to have more than 5kg in your hand luggage ANYWAY! Thats 150k which is nothing, cant even buy a house in most places. So this argument of the airplane is.... bullsh*t anyway! The much bigger aspect is that buying and selling above 10k now falls under money laundering. That hits many gold owners if they want to sell. I think nowadays you want to just make sure you live in a decent country instead of having to leave because of war, war isnt fashionable anymore, we only do proxy wars nowadays. And a bankrubt city or state can be seen from 3000 miles away so just dont be the last fool to decide to finally leave ;)

Edited by Swaize

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I dont know how discussion works in australia and what the social rules are.

In my culture its brutal throwing facts and ideas at each other til one starts to appreciate some aspects of the others ideas or one becomes bored and topic/subject is changed ;)

So keep throwing guys, im loving it!

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47 minutes ago, Swaize said:

I dont know how discussion works in australia and what the social rules are.

you have to be careful with what you say amongst snowflakes, otherwise they melt! :)

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haha i dont mind that, cause winter is coming!!!  -2C° today forecasted to fall to -10C° daytime  max temps all across europe in 3 days

but you guys have summer i guess?

P.S. i notice amongst the under 30years generation this political correctness is even starting to surface in switzerland. In germany its epidemic of course, as they are communists, especially in berlin, not at all in bavaria dough, they are straight forward in hating immigrants from africa who are lazy and drink in the street (instead of in the beer garden with leather pants)

https://goo.gl/images/U2ugtd

Edited by Swaize

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