cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3895 posts in this topic

I doubt three years data would be long enough to draw a theory on climate whatever happened. In addition, you need a global picture rather than a continent or hemisphere. Even during cold snaps the temperatures in the rest of the northern hemisphere are higher than usual. See the map above. Cold snaps in the northern hemisphere are largely due to the Arctic Oscillation. The link has a short simple explanation.

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all possible under 'climate change'

link

Quote

...It looks like we will have the coldest January 1st since 1918, and perhaps the second coldest New Year's Day on record...

 

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Very interesting posts, nice :)

As for the trade i posted the link here, its 50% up :)

As for the Dow, its bullish by the numbers, marty says many different opposing things

For Gold, Marty is starting to throw the towel. Socrates predicted the "Benchmarks" dec2015-april2016 to be a good turnpoint for a potential low. That happened. Now Marty says 2018 is worst case for a dollar gold low, but he also says he expects dollar weakness so its not likely. So we got Gold euro low in 2014 and Swiss Franc and Dollar gold low 2015.

Dollar rallye wise, Marty eventually expects a dollar high, probably around 2021, that will be quite massive, even historical. That should make a massive dent into the gold price, measured in dollars.

As for "global" climate, which we cant accurately measure and dont have historical data for anyway..... screw that, who cares, i think what counts more are crop damages due to frost in Europe e.g. fruits, or mold damage on wheat trough wet weather in fall. I found that in really good longer term data one can see how during the mini ice age they also had some hot summers, just that real outlyer years pull the averages down. For example every third year was really cold and shifting weather patterns confused farmers and caused crop damage. Sometimes they even use 20year averages on their data of the little ice age and other cool periods and one year of volcano outburst with cooling effect pulls that average down. Even if its 5C colder in Winter here, no one cares. But if its 1C colder on a cold Spring day, frost can kill potatoes and fruit crops in Europe and parts of the USA!  I think this whole climate bullsh*t is "divide and conquer" just forget about is. Instead i propose to monitor ACTUAL problems climate can increase, like crop damage. Also trough drought. In the time of AC who cares about 1C, but widespead climate related crop damage? Hell yeah!

I talked to some wheat farmers and they never told me the weather makes a difference to their yield. They say the soil and inputs make a difference. When that attitutde starts shifting, then we know something is afoot with the climate! Even if it might be regional and offset by other regions that get the other extreme.

Edited by Swaize

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From memory the cold in the states at the moment is because changes in climate have destabilised the normal pattern which keeps the cold thingy wind at the top up there and lets it come down to normally warmer places.

Meaning that the arctic gets warmer by transferring cold to the south. Someone was worried about this a few months back when it started happening in a bigger or more frequent way. I think one of the concerns was that with the arctic warming by cooling places which easily rewarm (closer to equator) there is a chance of a runaway change from the normal situation.

Meanwhile I am wandering around Krakow winter market, there is no snow,  in a Tshirt. That doesn't prove global warming or cooling. Just proves I can look good anywhere.

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16 hours ago, tor said:

 

Meanwhile I am wandering around Krakow winter market, there is no snow,  in a Tshirt. That doesn't prove global warming or cooling. Just proves I can look good anywhere.

Photos or it never happened.

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20 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Photos or it never happened.

+1. It is near enough to freezing point. Perhaps every time it rises above zero, it is good enough to qualify as global warming. :-)

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On 1/4/2018 at 7:38 AM, cobran20 said:

+1. It is near enough to freezing point. Perhaps every time it rises above zero, it is good enough to qualify as global warming. :-)

You walk around in +1 in a T shirt? I mean I am a tough f*cker (wrt to weather) but 1 degree is not T shirt weather for me.

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5 hours ago, tor said:

You walk around in +1 in a T shirt? I mean I am a tough f*cker (wrt to weather) but 1 degree is not T shirt weather for me.

I was just agreeing with Medved. I'd like to see you walking in a T-shirt during the polish winter which is fed by cold currents from Siberia.

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Well I tend to be behind the camera so here is The Polish Princess enjoying warm Krakow a week ago. We've just left Wisla where the same thing happened a couple of days and only one of the ski runs is open as they can't make enough artificial snow for both runs..

2017-12-30_DSC_7984.jpg

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13 hours ago, tor said:

Well I tend to be behind the camera so here is The Polish Princess enjoying warm Krakow a week ago. We've just left Wisla where the same thing happened a couple of days and only one of the ski runs is open as they can't make enough artificial snow for both runs..

2017-12-30_DSC_7984.jpg

With such a 'heat wave', how come everybody else in the photo is all rugged up? Did you ask your polish princess to remove that jacked she is carrying just for the photo by any chance? The guy looking at her on the left seems a bit puzzled at the dress wear.

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1 hour ago, cobran20 said:

With such a 'heat wave', how come everybody else in the photo is all rugged up? Did you ask your polish princess to remove that jacked she is carrying just for the photo by any chance? The guy looking at her on the left seems a bit puzzled at the dress wear.

 

 

Capture.PNG

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In the sun it was super warm, maybe 15 degrees. In the shade and wind quite a bit cooler still above zero though. Everyone was wearing spring jackets and Poles don't remove their jackets once they put them on, they wander around in shopping malls heated to 20 degrees still with their jackets on. You will note the lack of snow underfoot as compared to previous years (check the S&S travel thread for previous years photos).

The dude checking her out is just because we look so damn sexy he was probably wondering if he was in a fashion shoot :)

But it is okay I already said that this years weather in Poland (and Australia's heatwave) don't prove anything wrt global warming, you don't have to get too defensive about it.

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On 09/01/2018 at 2:18 PM, tor said:

The dude checking her out is just because we look so damn sexy he was probably wondering if he was in a fashion shoot :)

I wasn't sure if it was a dude or a dudette. If you look at the position of their feet they are clearly moving towards Mrs Tor. 

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We are a package deal I figure :) any compliment to her is a compliment to me (and vice versa of course).

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Answer to cobrans question:

Is Armstrong bullish? No not at all. Hes cautious on gold as well as the DOW. But marty is not as bearish anymore as he was at the conference november2015 1 month before the low ;)

Is Socrates bullish? actually gold elected 3 of the 4 required monthly bullish from the low and now it elected the first minor yearly bullish 2 weeks ago!

Certainly martys comments of new lows in 2018 look veeeeeeery totally unlikely for 2018 and since he saw that as the latest.....

 

 

Bitcoin, yes i called the bubble alarm on my blog couple weeks ago and i agree, especially bitcoin(11.000$) is just totally bubbly.

second post from the top: Bitcoin might have peaked

https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/archives/12-2017

 

Some other cryptocurrencies might actually RISE by the end of 2018 like cardano/ADA and even ether(990$)  and neo(130$) might have more upside this year. Zcash is on solid support, it would surprise me if it collapses much further. Its also the alternative for the blackmarket as it can be anonymous and its fees are muuuuuch lower than that of Monero.

You can check my blog for updates on crypto and writings on other silly topics :)

https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/

Edited by Swaize

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Hey tor, youre in Krakow?

Im up in the middle of Poland (everything snowed in haha) we could meet?

We seem to share a similar taste for women, I got tired of my german girlfriend, now i got a polish one hehe :)

For everyone in Germany, im so sorry for you guys!  You get so many foreigners and they are all from places like Turkey,Syria,Marocco.... when literally all your neighbours would be beautiful but dont like you! Czech, Poland, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxemburg

Whereas poland now gets Ukrainian girls who come to work to clean houses and give Russian lessons :)

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I was in a few cities teaching Polish people bayonet fighting but am now in germany doing the same... gradually moving west to Belgium then home to Japan.

Polish Princesses are the best :)

I do wonder what is going to happen this year (?) when the Ukrainians get travelling rights for the EU, Poland has about 1million of them at the moment and I can only assume they will bail for better countries as soon as they can. Leaving Poland screwed again with it's missing generation. Have you seen real estate prices in Warsaw? Bloody hell. I should have bought a few years back when I posted here about it looking ready for a boom.

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