cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

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On 11/11/2017 at 8:50 PM, cobran20 said:

Here is a prediction that Socrates can be measured on by the middle of next year

The Clear & Present Danger of a Global Cooling not Warming

 

Here is another one that can be measured probably in 12 months:

High-End Real Estate Starting to Enter Crash Mode

Quote

...The high-end real estate boom is now turning sour. We are looking at property values declining in London, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, New York, and even Miami. The shift will now turn toward MOVABLE assets as capital departs from the fixed asset class.

It might explain the rise in crypto & equities.

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On 11/11/2017 at 8:50 PM, cobran20 said:

Here is a prediction that Socrates can be measured on by the middle of next year

The Clear & Present Danger of a Global Cooling not Warming

 

Prediction is off to a good start

Snow flies in north with first winter storm

Quote

...The capital also saw sleet for the first time in 20 years...

Boston Cold Weather Record Breaks One Held More Than a Century

Quote

...Boston's temperature tumbled to 23 degrees, the lowest temperature on Nov. 11 since 1901, the Boston Globe reported....

Britain is colder than Russian Arctic as three-week freeze arrives with -7C cold and England's first snow

Quote

...Britain faces a three-week Arctic cold spell with temperatures falling below that of parts of Russia...

 

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3 hours ago, tor said:

Wasn't this the third warmest November or December or something for the 48 states?

Was it? I haven't seen anything reported (not that I looked very hard). But as the article states, they're having record snowfall, which to me seems inconsistent with the globull warming forecasts that were promoted endlessly down our throats, except that it has now been changed to just plain 'climate change' to save face.

IMO, the actual weather that the northern hemisphere is experiencing is more closely matching Socrates' forecast than the new religion.

The only thing that seems to be melting in the northern hemisphere so far are gullible snowflakes!

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I'm sweating my arse off in 28 dc weather at 10pm in Brisbane. Absolute proof of something. It's expensive but I'm going to turn my AC on and do my bit to counter global warming. 

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15 hours ago, cobran20 said:

I've made the point about weather versus climate to you before.  If a cold snap in the states disproves global warming then a heatwave in Oz proves it right? Nobody has ever said that winter won't be cold anymore due to global warming. The temperature records are falling at about three to one on the warm side. If we're going to start claiming weather as representative of climate change, however wrong that is, I'll have a lot more headlines to post than you!

Here's a map of the global temperatures on the 28th December. Can you spot the flaw in your assertion?

gfs_world_ced_t2anom_1_day.png

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4 hours ago, staringclown said:

I've made the point about weather versus climate to you before.  If a cold snap in the states disproves global warming then a heatwave in Oz proves it right? Nobody has ever said that winter won't be cold anymore due to global warming. The temperature records are falling at about three to one on the warm side. If we're going to start claiming weather as representative of climate change, however wrong that is, I'll have a lot more headlines to post than you!

Here's a map of the global temperatures on the 28th December. Can you spot the flaw in your assertion?

gfs_world_ced_t2anom_1_day.png

If the weather temperature was on an upward trend, you should not be getting record cold temperatures. It should be higher highs and higher lows.

But the facts are not fitting the theory we're lambasted with.

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1 minute ago, cobran20 said:

If the weather temperature was on an upward trend, you should not be getting record cold temperatures. It should be higher highs and higher lows.

But the facts are not fitting the theory we're lambasted with.

Hello Donald, is that you?

 

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3 hours ago, cobran20 said:

No. But he is not PC ... much like me! :P

Like the orange clown, I doubt you know what PC means.

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4 hours ago, cobran20 said:

If the weather temperature was on an upward trend, you should not be getting record cold temperatures. It should be higher highs and higher lows.

But the facts are not fitting the theory we're lambasted with.

Says who? Is that your own theory or just gut feeling? Here's what the IPCC report says. 

Quote

It is virtually certain that, in most places, there will be more hot and fewer cold temperature extremes as global mean temperatures increase. These changes are expected for events defined as extremes on both daily and seasonal time scales. Increases in the frequency, duration and magnitude of hot extremes along with heat stress are expected; however, occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur. Twenty-year return values of low temperature events are projected to increase at a rate greater than winter mean temperatures in most regions, with the largest changes in the return values of low temperatures at high latitudes. Twenty-year return values for high temperature events are projected to increase at a rate similar to or greater than the rate of increase of summer mean temperatures in most regions. 

The facts seem to fit precisely with the theory we're being lambasted with.

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1 hour ago, staringclown said:

Says who? Is that your own theory or just gut feeling? Here's what the IPCC report says. 

The facts seem to fit precisely with the theory we're being lambasted with.

Ok. So how low do temperatures have to get before the theory is  proven fraud?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/public-library-of-science-published-no-evidence-of-global-warming-caused-by-humans/

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8 hours ago, zaph said:

Hello Donald, is that you?

 

To be fair to cobran that's not backing your argument much with scientific research.

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18 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

To be fair to cobran that's not backing your argument much with scientific research.

Not enough scientific research that I'm not Trump? If I  was him and with his wealth, I would not be working and probably not even posting on this forum. :)

 

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21 hours ago, cobran20 said:

It's not really about how low a particular temperature is in a location. It's about the frequency of record cold weather versus record hot weather events globally. If there were three times as many record cold weather events as record hot weather events occurring over time (as there currently is the case with hot vs cold) you could argue the theory was debunked. 

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1 hour ago, staringclown said:

It's not really about how low a particular temperature is in a location. It's about the frequency of record cold weather versus record hot weather events globally. If there were three times as many record cold weather events as record hot weather events occurring over time (as there currently is the case with hot vs cold) you could argue the theory was debunked. 

So, let's say, if over the next 3 years we had more colder winters in the northern hemisphere (than the average) vs hotter summers (than the average), then would that do?

The way the theory is constructed, it sounds like it would allow a mini ice age as acceptable, providing we have enough hotter summers afterwards. It makes is a very 'flexible' theory that keeps it a 'happening thing' for decades. My cynical self tells me that after the initial theory of global warming, where predictions proved to be absurdly wrong (once again using our Oracle Tim as prime example), version 2 was named 'climate change' to try to make the facts fit the theory.

Meanwhile, Socrates' forecast are proving to be much more on the mark.

The Coldest New Year – Ever?

 

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