Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

He said he stopped following Armstrong's forecasts about a year ago, said if you follow Armstrong you lose money (though did acknowledge he's a smart guy). He did recommend the work of Robert Prechter.

cobran20 · October 22, 2017

12 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Ran into an old friend yesterday. I introduced him to Armstrong around seven years ago.

He said he stopped following Armstrong's forecasts about a year ago, said if you follow Armstrong you lose money (though did acknowledge he's a smart guy). He did recommend the work of Robert Prechter.

I find your old friend's comments incredible. Prechter's book make good reading, but his forecasting services are very accurate ... if you do the opposite of what they forecast. Over 10 years ago, I subscribed to the EWFF monthly service. I cancelled it after 10 months as I measured their forecasting accuracy at 10%. Fortunately, I did not put any money behind their forecasting. About once/twice per year they have a free week where you can view the content of all/some of their paid publications and upon review they confirm that on average they're not worth the money. Prechter himself suffers from the broken clock syndrome.

Swaize seems happy with Socrates, but it is not to my liking for reasons I have already expressed.

Solomon · October 24, 2017

Has Martin stopped blogging, or did it just become too burdensome to load them all to this thread?

Not a criticism, just asking.

cobran20 · October 24, 2017

2 hours ago, Solomon said:

Has Martin stopped blogging, or did it just become too burdensome to load them all to this thread?

Not a criticism, just asking.

The latter. You can find them here.

Mr Medved · October 24, 2017

Cobran stopped because he was too busy.

I've stopped because I'm too busy too.

I assume he still blogs, haven't check for a while.

cobran20 · November 11, 2017

Here is a prediction that Socrates can be measured on by the middle of next year

The Clear & Present Danger of a Global Cooling not Warming

Quote

This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. We are in a global cooling period and all the data we have in our computer system warns that the earth is turning cold not warm...

Swaize · November 13, 2017

Hey guys,

Marty just forecasted that upon certain conditions 2018 will either be:

1. a runaway bullmarket for the dow

2. a fallback to potentially 18270 then a further rally

Marty also forecasted that within a few years this bullmarket will carry us into a new plateau and we will never see the lows of 2009 or 2003 ever ever ever again. That is opposite from charles nenner and i think also from Robert Prechter.

" Robert Prechter: The true top for stocks in terms of real money (gold) occurred way back in 1999. Overall prosperity has waned subtly since then. Primary wave five in nominal terms started in March 2009, and wave B up in the Dow/gold ratio started in 2011. Their tops should be nearly coincident. "

" Prechter: I don’t know. All I can say for sure is that the degree of the corrective wave will be larger than that which created the malaise of the 1930s and 1940s. "

" In the next wave of negative mood, we should see the opposite: declining stock and property prices, "

" The most consistently useful momentum indicator is breadth. If I had to rely on only one momentum indicator, that would be it. "

One more thing, Marty said 2022 is a very important turnpoint for the Dow Jones! Can be the high.

Edited November 13, 2017 by Swaize

cobran20 · November 13, 2017

4 hours ago, Swaize said:

Hey guys,

Marty just forecasted that upon certain conditions 2018 will either be:

1. a runaway bullmarket for the dow

2. a fallback to potentially 18270 then a further rally

Marty also forecasted that within a few years this bullmarket will carry us into a new plateau and we will never see the lows of 2009 or 2003 ever ever ever again. That is opposite from charles nenner and i think also from Robert Prechter.

" Robert Prechter: The true top for stocks in terms of real money (gold) occurred way back in 1999. Overall prosperity has waned subtly since then. Primary wave five in nominal terms started in March 2009, and wave B up in the Dow/gold ratio started in 2011. Their tops should be nearly coincident. "

" Prechter: I don’t know. All I can say for sure is that the degree of the corrective wave will be larger than that which created the malaise of the 1930s and 1940s. "

" In the next wave of negative mood, we should see the opposite: declining stock and property prices, "

" The most consistently useful momentum indicator is breadth. If I had to rely on only one momentum indicator, that would be it. "

One more thing, Marty said 2022 is a very important turnpoint for the Dow Jones! Can be the high.

So what are those 'certain conditions'?

Prechter and Nenner (certainly the former from reading his material) has proven to be a broken clock.

Swaize · November 13, 2017

yes and nenner sometimes (just like marty) gets dates right but then there is no crash and instead that date is the high.

i dont want to give out the exact numbers as marty and the CEO told me in person, they are okay with talking about martys writing but they would prefer if we kept it within reason.

Basically either in 2018 we see the last high exceeded and the dow just goes up more, or we see a correction first, then new highs. 2022 is a yearly turnpoint.

So he definitely forecasts new highs still, opposite to most others. i would also like to add, that 2015 marty said at the conference buy the dow, then it declined, then end of 2016 the signals were not totally clear as to what to expect when and actually 2018 was hinted to be the phase transition.

but now end of 2017 finally there is a clear signal with numbers. The array also looks much clearer. its really important to only enter trades when the numbers are elected, martys forecasts are usually like this: if this number gets elected we expect further upside, but if that number gets elected, we expect a correction. in may2017 he said if 20k gets elected we get a correction and he was going on about corrections but it never happened, and the number was never elected. Also on the private blog, he kept writing about corrections and bearish reversals. So his tone or bias doesnt count, its the reversals that get elected, that decide the direction.

Also Marty forecasts that 2020/21 should be the euro low and the high is already in. april-september2018 is the next area for a big turning point in the euro, against dollar francs and pound.

Edited November 13, 2017 by Swaize

Swaize · November 13, 2017

Add to that the prediction from the blog, that if gold closes monthly above his number then a new bullmarket starts and the low is in. 1363 dollar?

I think if he gets all 3 correct, its hats off to socrates and then i contributed enough on this forum for people to see how martys predictions look and if they are accurate.

Maby one more for you guys, 2019 war should kick in and civil unrest should culminate in 2020. Locations he mentioned on the blog so far are Greece and France for civil unrest.

cobran20 · November 14, 2017

1 hour ago, Swaize said:

Add to that the prediction from the blog, that if gold closes monthly above his number then a new bullmarket starts and the low is in. 1363 dollar?

I think if he gets all 3 correct, its hats off to socrates and then i contributed enough on this forum for people to see how martys predictions look and if they are accurate.

Maby one more for you guys, 2019 war should kick in and civil unrest should culminate in 2020. Locations he mentioned on the blog so far are Greece and France for civil unrest.

Merkelstan will come undone!

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

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