cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3821 posts in this topic

Is cobran on holiday and Medved being lazy? I strained a muscle at training and am drunk so here is some stuff!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-7/

(anyone know why socrates needs a relaunch?)

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-survival-of-the-people-always-depends-upon-the-army/

(I thought americans [and armstrong] were pro gun just so this didn't happen, maybe guns are useless in the hands of civilians after all, maybe they only work against kings in which case "stupid founding fathers")

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-11th-2017/

(hooray the yen didn't move much and I am slowly getting japanese customers)

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-destruction-of-hamburg-is-massive/

(so many bikes on the ground! won't someone think of the bikes! [I haven't spoken to any germans in the past few days - been busy - but his photos look like less than the average ice hockey win])

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/there-is-now-enough-evidence-to-indict-comey-or-snowden-should-be-pardoned/

(No there isn't any such thing as “personal qualification", if it isn't classified then it sort of is "not classified" as exemplified by "not being classified", when someone goes out of their way to write something so that it is isn't classified they are after your arse for some reason or another. Fairly sure Armstrongs claims of being "almost as good as a real lawyer fail him here)

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/china-the-rule-of-law/

(largely I agree with Armstrong there, I just don't expect it to happen and plan my life accordingly, I would refer Armstrong to his feelings regarding the persistent abu ghraib investigations should he wonder if the persistent russia investigations are justified; other people have their ideas of where accusation / innocence starts and ends. Seems that the GOP techniques under Obama were learned by the Dems and the GOP might not be as unified in power as they were in opposition. That means fun for us until the ambulances come)

Hooray I updated and argued all in one post!

 

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Moving house this week, major pain in the butt as moving to an apartment. Moved most stuff myself too. Trying to downsize "stuff" but ran out of time. Received notice to vacate so not much flexibility.

So busy not lazy. Cobran is AWOL, normally he sends me a message if on holiday.

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Hey guys :)

@cobran20 you said i should make a portfolio and report about it, well i did, 3 years ago, i set out to beat all hedgefunds managers in the world and at least make it into the top10 every year and this year as every year im beating the hell out of those idiots :)

I usually say what im gonna do in advance and then do it. I start every year with 100k and measure at the end of the year what my performance was. I write down every trade on the day im doing it and often already in advance. So here is my lonely, narcissistic blog of trashing hedgefunds and giving myself a high five:

http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/

with archive 2015 jan,feb you can get to the first posts, oh its only 2 years from 2015.... well im bragging a lot in the blog too haha :)  ah no wait, 2015 2016 2017 yes the third year already:  http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/archives/01-2015

 

As for Marty, he doesnt give out many/any real forecasts from socrates on the blog. Also Socrates is super longterm. I can give you ones from the WEC2015 that are still years out and ones from this year in HongKong about events 4 years from now. The tradeble ones about the markets are usually just reversals and turnpoints. Turnpoints can be highs OR lows thats where Marty often f*cks it up in reports :)  Thats where Reversals come in and he says, IF we elect that reversal THEN that turnpoint will be a high. 

As for BREXIT i gathered all his blog posts somewhere either here or in the WEC forum to show that the computer DID predict Brexit. That was possible cause he had a model for it. With the French election he also had one, predicting Le Pen (the third party) will beat all the old standard parties. But Macron came in and beat her, so socrates forecast was correct but useless cause le pen won against the standard parties as forecasted but Macron won the presidency :)  This reminds me of the oracle of Delphi, (Marty comes from near Philadelphia) the Greek oracle said to a king (Krösus? who asked if he should attack tomorrow) that an empire will die in the battle. So the King went and attacked, but lost the battle and his own empire died, gotta be more specific :)

For the DOW the arrays on the yearly look really bad,wobbly,weird,useless so he still isnt able to forecast the final high thereyet. He DID call the 2015 high, spectacularly called the september2016 low on the ECM date, the breakout 2016/2017 like clockwork so far, just the final high he isnt able to forecast correctly in reports, maby its just really far off still? The newest is: if late 2018 is a low on the quarterly basis, then the high can be off into 2022 basically the phase transition comes when the DOW surpasses 23.000 and 2018 and 2022 are turnpoints.

His final gold low calls are equally wobbly. He himself got it wrong, but socrates gave december2015 or april2016 as the forecast for low (i posted that here in advance, the benchmarks) Marty then got the high mid2016 a bit off, like by a month or so. At the latest WEC he said he still doesnt see gold taking off yet and there MIGHT still be new lows, otherwise we should buy upon a monthly close above his 1363? or so number from the blog. When we look at silver its almost back to the lows, id say socrates is doing ok for now, not perfect but okay. On the blog you can see me short precious metal from the mid 2016 high and making a profit.

In Summary, he gives himself too many high fives and words like "perfect" definitely stem from martys ego not socrates performance. The title "forecaster" also implies a bit too much. Its not like he permanently forecasts the whole future in detail, more like a hazy picture, with a few puzzle pieces, which sometimes gets pushed a few years further into the future. When he ran the Australian Hedgefund he had a team watching markets 24h 24/7 which he didnt have to do if he knew the future. His claimed performance is 100% gains a year. Pretty damn good for a mortal human of course! Not god-like or magic. But if you have a look at my blog, youll see what Socrates is up against, most hedgefunds are really LOUSY! http://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/update

On the last note, i will give you the year where marty sees the dollar high, currency chaos, which will then trigger all the Chaos he talks about so often. 2020-2022 should be that time when the dollar peaks and after that 2023 should be the mystical worldwide monetary reform! Also lately on the blog he made public the date which he thinks the EU will have its economic low, 2021, which is also the next yearly turnpoint for the Dollar against the Euro!

Swaize

Edited by Swaize

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I think the issue is that he has two predictions for stuff as soon as he starts trying to sell his whole theory of the world. The socrates prediction and his own. Easy to be correct when you have both outcomes covered...

He seems to be actually okay at predicting when he gets out of the whole "cycles apply to everything" mode and just looks at trading data.

I think I still have a prediction from him where France is going to collapse fairly soon that feels counter to the EU bottom theory.

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12 hours ago, Swaize said:

Hey guys :)

@cobran20 you said i should make a portfolio and report about it, well i did, 3 years ago, i set out to beat all hedgefunds managers in the world and at least make it into the top10 every year and this year as every year im beating the hell out of those idiots :)

Congratulations on your performance. As I've said before, until Armstrong/Socrates publishes a model portfolio with explicit trade instructions, the system's performance cannot be properly measured and hence, I would not pay for it.

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Yes for France 2024 is the political change cycle with a new kind of Government, a real change:

France specific peak of political change 2024, revolution, change in government

we are looking at the collapse of the Fifth Republic formed by Charles de Gaulle. France is clearly on the brink of another political revolution. The Fifth Republic, France’s current republican system of government, was established by Charles de Gaulle under the Constitution of the Fifth Republic on October 4th, 1958 (1958.758).  Here too, there appears to be the risk of forming a new government (fall of the 5th Republic) by mid 2021. (next french election)

What are your thoughts about that?

Well, he did publish that model portfolio about the dow and Socrates does give specific trade signals. They are called Reversals. You can buy/sell every weekly or monthly bullish/bearish and use those as trade signals. His monthly model im sure you remember from the blog, it basically just went in, rode the dow up til a bit after the 2000 top, got out, went in, road a bit after the 2007 top, got out, real simple and low maintanance. The picture showed on the graph when socrates traded. The weekly is more maintenance than that, checking for elected Reversals every Saturday.

My strategy was adding the cycle arrays to it, only acting on Reversals when it looks like a new trend is beginning.

I guess to make it perfect, Marty would have to run a model portfolio live, like i do on the blog and publish all trades when they are executed and run that for a couple years, with a couple different instruments. Basically what i did on the blog, just officially by him and specifically saying how and when and upon what signals one should trade. Right?

 

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12 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/private-blog-canadian-dollar/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/private-blog-euro/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/market-talk-july-12th-2017/

13 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/city-of-seattle-runs-out-of-things-to-tax-now-wants-to-impose-income-tax/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/germany-begins-to-censor-the-internet/ (one for Swaize)

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/illinois-should-just-be-dissolved-as-the-solution/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-13th-2017/

14 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/happy-bastille-day-to-our-french-readers/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-dow-the-future-3/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/the-break-in-not-a-threat/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-14th-2017/

15 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/are-we-mushrooms-being-fed-mountains-of-manure-by-bureaucrats/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/they-want-to-put-nano-chips-into-currency-so-they-can-track-every-note/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/get-ready-for-the-phoenix-the-reality-of-a-one-world-currency/

16 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/french-riots-erupt-in-20-cities/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/animal-rights-activists-yell-about-insulting-to-cows/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/how-high-can-the-euro-go-on-this-reaction-116-or-125-128/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/private-blog-euro-2/

17 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/understanding-time-the-kondratieff-wave/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-dow-outlook-2/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/artificial-intelligence-the-future/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-17th-2017/

18 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trump-jr-the-russian-meeting/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-rising-youth-civil-unrest/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/navigating-the-business-cycle-prosperity/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-18th-2017/

19 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/italy-threatens-to-blow-up-the-refugee-crisis/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/judges-changing-transcripts-in-federal-court-manhattan/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-unconstitutionality-of-the-income-tax-the-supreme-court-ignores/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/the-euro-seminar-this-weekend-july-22nd-frankfurt/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-19th-2017/

20 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/why-global-warming-is-good/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/sun-activity-has-collapsed-to-the-lowest-in-9300-years/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/paris-climate-accord-junk-science/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/euro-rally-2/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-20th-2017/

21 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-hunt-for-money-the-more-things-change-the-more-they-stay-the-same/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/banks-get-their-criminal-convictions-overturned/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/spain-the-rise-fall-of-empires-nations-city-states-feudalism/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-21st-2017/

22 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/hillarys-polls-are-worse-than-trumps/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/nature-taking-care-of-the-elderly/ (I read this was debunked)

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/frankfurt-fate-of-the-euro-conference/

23 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/googles-antitrust-case-in-europe/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/is-trump-draining-of-filling-the-swamp/

24 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/star-wars-has-arrived-navy-tests-first-laser-weapon/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/does-cnn-really-have-the-right-to-freedom-pf-speech/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-a-different-central-bank-altogether/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-24th-2017/

25 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/poland-suggests-using-refugees-to-form-an-army-very-bad-idea/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/migrations-always-bring-infectious-diseases/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/schulz-warning-if-italy-is-not-given-aid-by-the-eu-the-refugee-crisis-will-explode-again/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-25-2017/

26 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/mccain-comes-out-and-says-how-bad-the-system-has-declined/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/history-repeats-in-school-attacks/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/browder-russia-trump-safra/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-26-2017/

27 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/britain-to-raise-retirement-age-to-68-to-try-to-save-pensions/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/the-refugee-crisis-is-now-causing-migration-of-youth-to-america/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/chernobyl-and-bikini-atoll-are-rewriting-science/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-27-2017/

28 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-month-end-closing-for-july-2017/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-phillips-curve-no-longer-works/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/the-tensions-between-france-germany/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-28th-2017/

29 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/russian-sanctions-the-start-of-world-war-iii/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/refugee-crisis-tearing-europe-apart/

30 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/nsa-links-to-big-corporations/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australian-police-want-a-new-law-to-covertly-turn-all-phones-into-listening-devices/

31 July

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/our-european-tour/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/only-37-believe-the-democrats-stand-for-something/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-july-31-2017/

 

Now for August...

 

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1 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/facebook-shuts-down-it-ai-system/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/volkswagen-the-risk-behind-the-euro/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trump-chaos/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-august-1st-2017/

2 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-prepares-for-world-war-iii/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/erdogan-moving-turkey-closer-to-dictatorship/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/our-european-tour-part-ii-seizing-all-bank-accounts-throughout-eu/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-august-2-2017/

3 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/is-the-federal-government-a-sovereign-or-a-corporation/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/german-diesel-summit-moved-for-security-reasons/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/american-imperialism-why-congress-violates-international-law/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/the-fate-of-britain-special-report/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-august-3rd-2017/

4 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/which-banks-to-keep-cash-short-term/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/facial-recognition-in-street-cameras-to-increase-tax-revenues/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/saint-tropez-the-billionaires-harbor-is-empty/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/the-canadian-dollar-review/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-august-4th-2017/

5 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/keeping-30-days-worth-of-cash-applies-worldwide/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/the-risk-of-north-korea/

6 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/diesel-cars-in-europe-received-tax-breaks-to-compete-against-japan/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/2017-the-year-without-an-arctic-summer/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/wec-november-3-4-2017-the-monetary-crisis-cycle/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/us-share-market-broad-overvaluation-index-one-of-the-best-leading-indicators-we-have-ever-created/

7 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/vix-at-record-lows/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/australia-hates-foreigners-now-their-property-taxes-are-doubled-if-ytou-are-not-australian/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/canada-looking-to-tax-small-business-93/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-august-7th-2017/

8 August

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/climate-change-how-it-has-made-us-who-we-are-today/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/obamacare-is-officially-destroying-the-economy-has-reached-60-of-total-retail-sales/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/california-voter-fraud-11-countries-posted-votes-in-excess-of-their-population/

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Just rewatched the video from the conference, he said the Aussi Dollar has a rock solid support underneath, so the lows are in.

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17 minutes ago, Swaize said:

Just rewatched the video from the conference, he said the Aussi Dollar has a rock solid support underneath, so the lows are in.

Interesting. Seems like May produced a low.

I was thinking about buying RUB earlier this year but held off, the AUD/RUB has appreciated by over 10%.

 

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