cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

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"The computer says this way but I say this way" is a fail for any prediction. Whichever one wins he can claim success but I say that means whichever wins he has to claim failure. Especially as he didn't trust his magic computer (which was wrong this time as well proving his mistrust was well founded).

 

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7 hours ago, tor said:

"The computer says this way but I say this way" is a fail for any prediction. Whichever one wins he can claim success but I say that means whichever wins he has to claim failure. Especially as he didn't trust his magic computer (which was wrong this time as well proving his mistrust was well founded).

 

I think that is more your biased interpretation. I have monitored many of the financial forecasts Socrates has made and they proved to be correct. He was unambiguous about what Socrates predicted about Brexit as an example. 

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I personally like the approach about the banks for the safety of deposits, since they're not engaging in high risk reward/loss transaction. The shareholders should bear the cost.

Banco Popular

 

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Not Armstrongs writings but an interesting perspective on his theory of people being fed up with Politics as they currently go:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/11/a-record-number-of-lgbtq-people-were-just-elected-to-the-u-k-parliament/

UKIP was resoundingly destroyed, the self proclaimed "Protector against the Foreign terrorists" lost an embarrassingly large number of seats in a safe election after two "terror" attacks (I hate that phrase, it is so simplistic but it is how she framed them) and the LGBTQ (I hate that one too) tag was surprisingly positive in results.

I read a theory that Australia with Abbott was actually the first "trump" election and that the actual Trump election and it's aftermath with the Australian experience as backgrounding is causing the failure of "Populist" political gameplays. Obviously that is an article I would like to be true. Nice to have a few numbers and elections showing that maybe the Armstrongs of the world are actually just the dying breed.

Certainly Poland seems to be allowing the extreme right to hang themselves over and over. Trump is wandering through there soon. Interesting to see what he causes there after his Qatar fiasco.

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I thought Abbott was more of a case of "anyone but Rudd". And he only led the Liberal Party only because Hockey had no balls.

But to be honest I don't know because I avoid MSM almost completely and when election cycle comes around again I'll use my VPN to avoid youtube ads. :)

 

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Holy sh*t! The debt/GDP ratio for Luxembourg is off the charts! Even taking into account the size of the banking sector there, that is still crazy (6,731% / $6.7m per capita).

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10 hours ago, Mr Medved said:

Holy sh*t! The debt/GDP ratio for Luxembourg is off the charts! Even taking into account the size of the banking sector there, that is still crazy (6,731% / $6.7m per capita).

A bit closer to home, Turdball & Co are proving to be as economically profligate as Labor.

Federal government debt surges past half-a-trillion dollars

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They won't stop the deficits. If they tried to it would induce an economic recession and the housing balloon will finally pop, which will cause major problems for the banks, which will land the government deeper in debt, etc.

So I wouldn't expect any genuine intent to "balance the books".

I'm surprised the government hasn't flogged off any more major assets... perhaps because there's nothing more to sell. I'm pretty confident they'll look to sell off NBN Co. once it is rolled out to most of the population.

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1 hour ago, Mr Medved said:

I'm surprised the government hasn't flogged off any more major assets... perhaps because there's nothing more to sell. I'm pretty confident they'll look to sell off NBN Co. once it is rolled out to most of the population.

Agree. It will be another monopoly with only wireless competition (where available). It has been rolled out to my street recently and they give you 18 months to join before they disconnect your ADSL.

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" Everything depends upon the elitist Republicans like McCain and Graham who would love to impeach Trump so they can put this issue aside and keep the Congress in 2018"

I do feel a bit sorry for any of the actual Trump supporters that realise this. And look in despair at the democrat fans that are encouraging impeachment. Any "normal" republican going for re election is going to have to dance a dainty line between the pissed off republicans and the pissed off trump supporters. So many paths seem to point to a crushingly powerful democratic win.

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3 hours ago, tor said:

" Everything depends upon the elitist Republicans like McCain and Graham who would love to impeach Trump so they can put this issue aside and keep the Congress in 2018"

I do feel a bit sorry for any of the actual Trump supporters that realise this. And look in despair at the democrat fans that are encouraging impeachment. Any "normal" republican going for re election is going to have to dance a dainty line between the pissed off republicans and the pissed off trump supporters. So many paths seem to point to a crushingly powerful democratic win.

and when will those elections be held?

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" It is looking more and more that the vote for Macron was not in support of him handing sovereignty to Brussels. The election point overlooked by everyone is the fact that Le Pen beat ALL mainstream parties. "

One way of reading the situation is that the only people that voted last time were the ones that loved Le Pen and those that hated her. Fortunately (I think) there were more that hated her than loved her. Given the voter turnout I can't think of a sensible interpretation any other way.

With his win people then had a chance to think about what he means. If the turnout is higher and significantly anti him then I would read it as "nope don't go thinking you represent us! we just really didn't like the other person".

 

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