cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3839 posts in this topic

 

8 hours ago, tor said:

Impeachment and thrown out of office seems exceedingly unlikely. I don't think it has ever happened even with opposition in control of the senate and the house. Trump has both of them, to be impeached would take proof on a level which convinced everyone. Given the publics treatment of facts currently I don't think that level of proof is attainable short of Putin physically handing trump money :)

There is a load of frothing at the mouth from the left wing commentariat about impeachment. It ain't gonna happen on what has been shown so far (as much as I'd want it to). The man child is safe for now. Watch his RP compadres for any change in status.

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Hey guys :)

Heard from friends the 2016WEC was a dud, glad i didnt go, but i decided to give it another try this year :)

The predictions of the last two are basically:

Buy the dow until 2018 or 2023 

Stay away from bonds

Gold in USD still hasnt bottomed but 2017 should be lowest yearly close

Real Estate has peaked and will only be a good buy in 15 years mainly because of taxation

The dollar will rise to 1985 high (euro 0.82  pound to par) by 2018 or the latest by 2021

 

Someone wrote socrates cant be measured. It can. Just buy the first weekly bullish and sell only once you get a weekly bearish. Or get into a market buying when it generates a monthly bullish after a correction and sell when it generates the first monthly bearish. Its a trend following system so test it on charts that have some kind of trend and not sideways or erratic markets.

If you got Arrays find a nice quarterly turnpoint, zoomin to monthly and if it also shows a clear turnpoint then start your test right after that turnpoint is past and the trend changes.

From my experience socrates works. Especially for longterm investors (couple of months-years) and especially in markets that have a trend, meaning that really move. 

Theres a third thing to do, to make it shine! Only trade markets with a gap between reversals on the monthly and quarterly level! 

But psst dont tell everyone, i think not many understand those 3 steps yet. I call it filtering and learned it from a guy who attends martys conferences since 1985!

Buffet is also great and i think you can use Socrates as an entry/exit strategy on Stocks Buffet picks. Id use the monthly reversals for that then youd have to check your investment only 12 times per year (after every monthly closing) and not even pick stocks yourself ;)

Edited by Swaize

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1 hour ago, Swaize said:

Hey guys :)

Heard from friends the 2016WEC was a dud, glad i didnt go, but i decided to give it another try this year :)

The predictions of the last two are basically:

Buy the dow until 2018 or 2023 

Stay away from bonds

Gold in USD still hasnt bottomed but 2017 should be lowest yearly close

Real Estate has peaked and will only be a good buy in 15 years mainly because of taxation

The dollar will rise to 1985 high (euro 0.82  pound to par) by 2018 or the latest by 2021

 

Someone wrote socrates cant be measured. It can. Just buy the first weekly bullish and sell only once you get a weekly bearish. Or get into a market buying when it generates a monthly bullish after a correction and sell when it generates the first monthly bearish. Its a trend following system so test it on charts that have some kind of trend and not sideways or erratic markets.

If you got Arrays find a nice quarterly turnpoint, zoomin to monthly and if it also shows a clear turnpoint then start your test right after that turnpoint is past and the trend changes.

From my experience socrates works. Especially for longterm investors (couple of months-years) and especially in markets that have a trend, meaning that really move. 

Theres a third thing to do, to make it shine! Only trade markets with a gap between reversals on the monthly and quarterly level! 

But psst dont tell everyone, i think not many understand those 3 steps yet. I call it filtering and learned it from a guy who attends martys conferences since 1985!

Buffet is also great and i think you can use Socrates as an entry/exit strategy on Stocks Buffet picks. Id use the monthly reversals for that then youd have to check your investment only 12 times per year (after every monthly closing) and not even pick stocks yourself ;)

Looks like you could run an after market service on Socrates, explaining how to use it! :)

Why don't you publish a running portfolio, based on your rules to see how it performs?

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22 hours ago, tor said:

Impeachment and thrown out of office seems exceedingly unlikely. I don't think it has ever happened even with opposition in control of the senate and the house. Trump has both of them, to be impeached would take proof on a level which convinced everyone. Given the publics treatment of facts currently I don't think that level of proof is attainable short of Putin physically handing trump money :)

Looks like the swamp will need to find another smoking gun!

Comey: Higher-ups never asked for halt to FBI investigations

Quote

James Comey, just-fired FBI director, said in a Senate hearing earlier this month that he’s never been asked by higher-ups to back off an investigation for political reasons — and that doing so would’ve been an eyebrow-raising “big deal.”
The Q&A with Democrat Sen. Mazie Hirono didn’t name President Donald Trump’s name. But given the recent Comey memo, in which he asserted Trump tried to stop the FBI investigation of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, the under-oath testimony is an interesting consideration...

 

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The problem with having non lawyers be politicians is that politicians are governed by the law. Ignorance of the law is not a defense and if you don't know the law then you will be ignorant and nothing will get done because the opposition can just bog you down with legitimate legal attacks on your position (not just your policy).

As we are seeing with Trump.

Now whilst everyone supporting Trump would currently wholeheartedly support removing that legal impediment so would everyone that supported Obama. The reason the law is there is to hold the f*ckers accountable.

Unaccountable politicians is probably the worst thing in the world based on how the countries that don't do this system are working out.

Therefore logically if anyone wanting to be a broad policy politician has to know the laws or be guided by a lawyer (expensive) probably the current system of experience qualified advisors to ideological politicians is probably a better system.

Democracy took ages to get going to even the state we have, wild sweeping changes seem to almost invariably suck when implemented. It's almost like no single person is the genius they think they are for running the whole world.

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And of course if that offends your thinking just think that Obama (a non career politician) being president with experience (constitutional law scholar) has a foundation dedicated to actual politics (rather than the swamp, the swamp is claiming that his organisation actually caused the loss to trump) is detested by Armstrong.

Surely you don't get closer to his ideal than exactly what Obama is and was. If Armstrong was honest about his thesis why would he hate Obama so much? Obama should be his ideal opposition party to whoever he pulls up from the ideological side doing the same stuff.

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