cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3839 posts in this topic

" North Korea cannot reach California yet. The real danger of a North Korean nuclear attack is on Seoul or Tokyo "

This is blatantly incorrect. I am fairly sure it is common knowledge amongst rocket afficianodos N Korea have launch vehicles for most of the continental US, California itself may be excluded due to great circles but that is kind of retarded to say. NY is definitely the prize target. Mostly the US anti ICBM guys are not quite sure if their stuff can stop all the incoming but 80% is cool right :)

Tokyo also would be a silly target, the US bases are not there. If Tokyo was chosen as a demoralising target whilst the US bases were left intact in mainland Japan that would be suicide of a quicker nature. I am fairly sure I get a lingering death as Nagoya is no longer anything except a manufacturing base and this wart won't start with WWII practical targets.

Seoul would never be used to waste a nuke on when conventional artillery in the North will flatten the place in about a minutes shell flight time.

Here in Japan we currently have received an updated "dangerous crap" warning which is used for earthquakes etc. Basically it says if N Korea fires on us we have about 8 minutes warning except probably not that long. We're meant to head underground (easy, we have sh*tloads of underground within a few minutes walk of most places that have US bases) but all things being equal "you live in Japan, you die with no warning" is the mentality. So why the f*ck worry :)

I do love how international weird sh*t seems to follow us around, at first I thought it was selection bias. I am starting to think the only people that hire me are the ones out of ideas and just need a drunk silly guy cheering them up. I guess that means I should not work so hard at my job and just get way more drunk!

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28 minutes ago, tor said:

Tokyo also would be a silly target, the US bases are not there. If Tokyo was chosen as a demoralising target whilst the US bases were left intact in mainland Japan that would be suicide of a quicker nature. I am fairly sure I get a lingering death as Nagoya is no longer anything except a manufacturing base and this wart won't start with WWII practical targets.

You need to study your history. There is a lot of animosity between Korea and Japan, similar to China & Japan. The Koreans (like the Chinese) have long memories.

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22 hours ago, cobran20 said:

You need to study your history. There is a lot of animosity between Korea and Japan, similar to China & Japan. The Koreans (like the Chinese) have long memories.

Reasonably sure the animosity wouldn't cause them to overlook the good targets though - not like they have a ton of missiles :)

Who needs to hit the continental US when you can waste a bunch of americans_and_ japanese in any of the US bases here As a bonus you slow down the US response. If they hit Tokyo the response will be within minutes from the US bases, odds are good even if the attack on Tokyo fails (likely given the apparent IT infiltration levels of the N Korea systems) N Korea would be wasted before anyone knew it had failed.

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5 hours ago, cobran20 said:

My experience in Eastern Europe and Central Asia is to always negotiate the fare before stepping into the car. Never rely on the meter as you get ripped off (happened to me once in Moscow and I learned my lesson).

Not sure if the likes of Uber, Yandex etc. have changed things as I haven't been there in a few years.

I'm surprised they're going after tourists because it may lead to less and less deciding to travel there.

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So Armstrong _does_ think Le Pen and Macron are wildly different and that Macron will destroy the EU. That seems a relatively important thing to know before the election results, wonder why the computer didn't predict the answer?

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5 minutes ago, tor said:

So Armstrong _does_ think Le Pen and Macron are wildly different and that Macron will destroy the EU. That seems a relatively important thing to know before the election results, wonder why the computer didn't predict the answer?

Was Macron even a presidential contender in 2015? My understanding is that he only become a candidate over the last year. Either case both are non main parties. So Socrates was on the money.

Quote

...The computer was correct back in 2015 when it projected Le Pen would beat both the Socialist and Conservatives. Now the second part of that forecast was just set in motion. There will be no reform for Europe so we are looking at a very hard landing.

 

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The computer could surely have updated it's predictions if they were wrong a few years back... don't suppose you have a link to the article from 2015 by any chance?

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1 hour ago, tor said:

The computer could surely have updated it's predictions if they were wrong a few years back... don't suppose you have a link to the article from 2015 by any chance?

No. You'll have to go and look for it in the archives.

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1 hour ago, cobran20 said:

No. You'll have to go and look for it in the archives.

hmmm it is almost like he doesn't want to show off his prediction computers results by linking to them. If it is too hard for him to find them then I guess I am unlikely to.

Now that swaize seems to have given up on using Armstrong as tradable information and prediction I wonder if anyone else is. Given, off the top of my head, Buffet has provable records of his 20 odd percent compounded growth for a decade or two I wonder if that is a better option, certainly seems lazier and I am a lazy fellow.

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"There have been 21+ civil uprisings in France since 1229. That is in line with the 8.6 year frequency  (8.615 * 4.307) = 37.104 "

Out by almost 50%, maybe that is why the computer prediction wasn't shown. Unless his 21+ actually means 37. Maybe his computer can't count. I can count a little and I did:

(2017 - 1229) / 8.6 = 91.6 (which is right only about 23% of the time).

If he is claiming that half the 8.6 yr cycles are up and half down and using 8.6 as the cycle then it would be

(2017 - 1229) / (8.6 / 2) = 45 (slightly less than half the time right)

If he is claiming his cycles are actually a function of themselves (8.6 * half itself or 1 every 37 years) then civil uprisings should be evenly spaced apart which doesn't quite appear to match history as far as I can tell.

He appears to have just used the wikipedia list of civil uprisings in france (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_France) which does have 21 events. but ten happened in the past 17 years and 11 in the previous 788 years. So his cycle is woefully incorrect 2 years ago and will be again in another two years if cycles were a true thing reflected in a wikipedia article.

Maybe that is why he won't make french predictions from the computer public. They are based on wikipedia.

 

 

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