cobran20

Martin Armstrong's Economic Writings

3578 posts in this topic

There was early snow in November, there was/is snow in Greece and even on the Balearic islands like Mallorca which is unusual.

The weather channel in germany warned of this and said its an unusual pehnomenon of some weird air inflow from the north. 

All places have way more snow than in the last 10 years. 1960-1980 still beats that  dough according to older people. 

The Swiss Government made their own climate study and found that there was basically stable climate, a little dip around 1960-1975 and then strong warming from 1980-2010 

So they didnt find any hockey stick or any warming from cars or co2 or anything. Glaciers also showed the warming from 1980-2010 by shrinking. Im glad for this warming, my mother remembers huge lakes being frozen that i have never seen frozen ever.

Other research around the world has showed that there was no gigantic simultaneous cooling in the tropics and subtropics. The last mini-ice-age was mostly in Europe. Other parts of the world did also cool but simultaneously to Europe. What did happen was that rain patterns got really screwed up. One year no rain, next year too much, late frosts, early frosts, stuff like this. Farmers were reporting that they are confused when to sow because the seasons became so irregular. Lots of crop losses either way..... cooling in Europe is a ba sign for the world. Luckily it has only plateau-ed so far and not dropped too far. 

@Mr Medved  thats why i asked if anyone needs any info back then because i knew our Beta-Trial will come to an end sometime. Now it has. Those numbers and turnpoint are of course still valid. What i heard from the new conference as far as currencies go, the Euro hasnt elected the worst reversal, only the Chinese Yuan has. So the dollar upmove will come but not right now (next couple of months)

@cobran20   Gold

Hmm the low or the change into an uptrend is still to come according to Marty (in USA $ terms)

Used to be January for a low so here we are. Its a low. If i was looking to buy this is a relatively good time. Inflation is piicking up all over the world, Germany, USA, Britain. In all currencies we are off the lows, just in US-Dollar Marty expects lower lows.

Now he mentioned it can still break below 1000$ maby even next year who knows, he doesnt. Lots depends on the US-Dollar so relying on Marty when youre in Aussi Dollar doesnt make much sense, cause he expects a big rise in the Dollar til semewhere in 2018-2021 which will distort his forecast and make it useless measured in Aussi Dollar. He did say that the latest Gold can bottom is 2017-2018

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7 hours ago, Swaize said:

There was early snow in November, there was/is snow in Greece and even on the Balearic islands like Mallorca which is unusual.

The weather channel in germany warned of this and said its an unusual pehnomenon of some weird air inflow from the north. 

All places have way more snow than in the last 10 years. 1960-1980 still beats that  dough according to older people. 

The Swiss Government made their own climate study and found that there was basically stable climate, a little dip around 1960-1975 and then strong warming from 1980-2010 

So they didnt find any hockey stick or any warming from cars or co2 or anything. Glaciers also showed the warming from 1980-2010 by shrinking. Im glad for this warming, my mother remembers huge lakes being frozen that i have never seen frozen ever.

Other research around the world has showed that there was no gigantic simultaneous cooling in the tropics and subtropics. The last mini-ice-age was mostly in Europe. Other parts of the world did also cool but simultaneously to Europe. What did happen was that rain patterns got really screwed up. One year no rain, next year too much, late frosts, early frosts, stuff like this. Farmers were reporting that they are confused when to sow because the seasons became so irregular. Lots of crop losses either way..... cooling in Europe is a ba sign for the world. Luckily it has only plateau-ed so far and not dropped too far. 

@Mr Medved  thats why i asked if anyone needs any info back then because i knew our Beta-Trial will come to an end sometime. Now it has. Those numbers and turnpoint are of course still valid. What i heard from the new conference as far as currencies go, the Euro hasnt elected the worst reversal, only the Chinese Yuan has. So the dollar upmove will come but not right now (next couple of months)

@cobran20   Gold

Hmm the low or the change into an uptrend is still to come according to Marty (in USA $ terms)

Used to be January for a low so here we are. Its a low. If i was looking to buy this is a relatively good time. Inflation is piicking up all over the world, Germany, USA, Britain. In all currencies we are off the lows, just in US-Dollar Marty expects lower lows.

Now he mentioned it can still break below 1000$ maby even next year who knows, he doesnt. Lots depends on the US-Dollar so relying on Marty when youre in Aussi Dollar doesnt make much sense, cause he expects a big rise in the Dollar til semewhere in 2018-2021 which will distort his forecast and make it useless measured in Aussi Dollar. He did say that the latest Gold can bottom is 2017-2018

Thanks.

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Investigating Madonna absolutely has to be the most "American Propaganda Works" post I have seen in a while. When Trump did the same thing with his "I don't know the second amendment people might" blah blah blah the left went equally batsh*t about it. They're both f*cking retarded. Dog whistling may have worked in the past but this is beyond Helter Skelter or The Catcher in the Rye.

Personally I think it is cool that, as far as I can tell, we now actually have hardcore nutbags on the left as well. The masked anarchist guys Black something or other. The left can dog whistle the f*ck out of every 20 yr old that never got to have sex with the person he wanted or the job she wanted and has a gun.

It means there will be more active shootings in political processes.

Hopefully the politicians are looking at just how badly this is going to (or will once the shootings get out of control) and realise they themselves don't want to be assassinated on such a routine schedule and tone back their silliness. Schools didn't matter, once the politicians are in the sights I think things might change. CNN and FOX are probably going to have to make changes as well.

Unfortunately I pretty much expect Trump to be wasted either physically by assassination or politically by republican revolt and we won't get to ever see whether the right can promise all the things they have promised over the past few years which means the trickle down political effect will continue.

If isolationism and projection of power used for resource acquiring works then I guess I misread history. I read it as having been "good sh*t happens when you stop being dicks to each other and pretending you are special". As I said a whiles back, seeing Trump win is kind of great because it gives the right the chance to fail miserably.

Be fun to see who can adjust their lifestyle quickest to the new world. I'm betting me, I planned for the holocaust; anything less is kind of easy.

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Hey this is weird. Armstrong has a bloomberg / reuters account and is using the same algorithms everyone else uses to make their auto posted News slightly different.

http://bfy.tw/9eyB

He wrote a few extra bits but they were his normal slightly rushed thing. Maybe that is why he f*cked up the "NASA says Stuff" report the other day. And the "Putin is speaking for Trump" thing a few months back.

 

CogDiss is cool. It's a bar on the bridge in the SanFran AIDS free future according to Gibson.

 

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Thor, we have never met, so i could be wrong, i sense a kind of like you seem to be waiting for people or society to tear itself apart, partly you see it coming partly you hope it comes because you might feel estranged by the weird people and their behaviour? Im really just wildly guessing here. Did any part of that come close to reality?

 

As for Martys trading/investing/Socrates

Guys, Marty got lots of things really right.

Thing is.... on just as many occasions he was inaccurate. Gold low earliest by Dez2015. Then one month before goes oh no it will be april. Then one month later goes oh Dezember was a low now it will go up A LITTLE. Then april was nothing, gold keeps shooting up massively past his resistance, he says short at 1340$ (not too bad) then goes a low in January2017 but looks more like a high now, now says oh the low is 2018 the latest. So 2015-2018 quite a range...

With the dow he just recently warned of a correction, now posts: see i told ya it will go up (yes marty you did, since 2013, but just before you said beware a correction...)

The way it works is he gives a lower number and a higher one. If it exceeds the higher, then the assumption is it will go even higher. 

From a scientific point of view his arrays DO FAIL often. Im saying you take 20 arrays and see if something happens at the turnpoints and more than 50% it will be off or nothing happens, but worse they change sometimes and often the ones from the blog are different from what we get, basically confusing and untradable sometimes. The trick seems to be to filter out the "real" turnpoints and combine with the reversal levels. Lets say the dow mostly goes up for 7 months. I wont see that on the arrays in advance. Only very rarely important reversals and inmportant arrays come together and THEN we get a decent trade. Like he always says, trade less often and invest longer term, follow the trend. Goldman and Procter and Gamble both had a really really nice October turnpoint on the array. Goldman just shot trough it and Procter made a high there and has been down since. I could call it a great success or... 50/50 chance, just roll a dice. Need to combine with reversals.

After the last conference most were confused. After this conference many said things feel clearer now. The newbees struggle dough. Socrateses commentary is usually wrong and much too long to read and understand. So got to really learn the reversals and arrays. Not so easy. I have followed a seasoned Goldbug and Marty fan and his trades based on Socrates. It was a disaster because of the human component! He took some signals and ignored others, that socrates gave, since there are so many, daily, weekly, monthly and multiples of each.

Finally the solution could be: Marty said he wants to introduce a hedging model that gives clear automatic buy sell signals. And an alert that notifies us if a signal has been given. That could work great! Just put hedging on the weekly level for trading or monthly for saving for retirement and voila. I am looking forward to test that.

One last thing. On the quarterly level array, markets first showed 2nd quarter 2017 then it shifted to 3rd quarter 2017 and some even shifted again, over the course of 2016. So arrays DO shift and change. Support and marty says otherwise, but i have seen it and i have proof. Even from his blog on the dow there were 4 arrays once and all different and none really correct. So dont get fooled, they dont always work perfectly as i at least would have wished.

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31 minutes ago, Swaize said:

Finally the solution could be: Marty said he wants to introduce a hedging model that gives clear automatic buy sell signals. And an alert that notifies us if a signal has been given. That could work great! Just put hedging on the weekly level for trading or monthly for saving for retirement and voila. I am looking forward to test that.

It's what I've been suggesting. He needs to run a portfolio of buys & sells generated by Socrates so that performance can be accurately measured and followed by subscribers.

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1 hour ago, Swaize said:

Thor, we have never met, so i could be wrong, i sense a kind of like you seem to be waiting for people or society to tear itself apart, partly you see it coming partly you hope it comes because you might feel estranged by the weird people and their behaviour? Im really just wildly guessing here. Did any part of that come close to reality?

Nah I don't want society to tear itself apart, I am doing quite well under the status quo and would prefer that to continue :) 

What I do see is politics having become less effectual at doing the things I think it should be doing. These things largely fall under the headings that many would call left leaning (pro abortion rights, pro gay rights, pro free school, pro universal income etc).

My feeling is that the recent actions on these have been stymied by the right side of politics. When the left has power the right blocks these things.

Also I feel the right has become much more lowest common denominator politics (build a wall, bomb them and make them stay there).

I am hoping that the right, now it has the most power in the US in some 80 years, will now fail to deliver on the promises and hopefully destroy that style of politics and in the aftermath things will get a bit less knee jerky and awful.

 

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It’s time to leave before they impose an exit tax.

Wouldn't that logic apply to the US as a whole? I think they are one of the few countries that does that...

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11 hours ago, tor said:

 

 

and which countries will be free from expatriation tax in the future, since most seem to be in the red from spending more than they earn?

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I think Armstrong is going to have a hard time with Trump. Trump did sign an order and federal employees did enact it when it was against the constitution (the retroactive bit) and continued to enact it after the judiciary said "wheee hold on just a minute"...

Just because it is bloody obvious he isn't allowed to doesn't mean the act of trying should be supported.

I am going to have to buy more popcorn I guess.

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