urchin

how long will julia remain

253 posts in this topic

it seems to me that as soon as someone has to come out and say that they are not going anywhere, have no intention to resign, etc. that the die is cast and it is only a matter of timing... perhaps we get rudd v. 2.0--i'm sure he'd be *so* reluctant to take up the throne again. though if thompson falls it could be a short reign.

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it seems to me that as soon as someone has to come out and say that they are not going anywhere, have no intention to resign, etc. that the die is cast and it is only a matter of timing... perhaps we get rudd v. 2.0--i'm sure he'd be *so* reluctant to take up the throne again. though if thompson falls it could be a short reign.

Two years before the next election? I heard Graeme Richardson today saying 10 months max. Peter Beattie is warning against action just yet. My bet is in 5 months we don't see improvement then she's kaput.

Edit: 'n'

Edited by staringclown

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Lets see.

The Craig Thomson - Credit Card affair.

The Malaysia solution.

The Carbon Tax that's not a tax.

The Poker Machine reform, backlash.

The National Curriculum debacle.

Housing price declines.

Manufacturing sector struggling.

Can't think of any others off the top of my head.

But I would suggest that with another GFC looming before the end of the year, Joolea is going have to change her name to Houdini.

I wouldn't be surprised to see her gone before the end of the year.

(The main question would be, but will it simply be a leadership spill, or a general election?)

When parliament resumes in a weeks time, the coalition are going to turn up the heat on the cracks, which seem to have really opened wide this week, for some reason.

Now the media have got the sniff of a story unfolding, Julia will be hardpressed to stay out of the spotlight.

Most Australians were willing to give the minority government a fair go, but I think the rice paper is coming unstuck.

Its definitely looking shaky that's for sure.

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Good Question, my answer would be that Julia will see out the full term, if there is going to be a new leader for the Labour Party it will be after the next Federal Election. As the Liberals will probably win, though they will have their hands full in 2013, because that is either after all Hell has broken free! Or when it actually starts! Whic Ever way those who put the Liberals back in power will be sorry, you got to be careful for what you wish for!

C'mon 2013!:rolleyes:

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Ms Bishop, who forecast Mr Rudd's dumping before others in the Coalition, and Ms Gillard's own decline, told colleagues she did not believe the poll boost that Labor would receive from changing to Mr Rudd would be sustainable and Labor would rush to an election to capitalise on it.

The Herald poll showed Labor trailing the Coalition by 27 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote and by 42 per cent to 58 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/expect-snap-poll-if-rudd-is-restored-says-bishop-20110912-1k62d.html#ixzz1XmDzKJHx

i agree with bishop.

imo labor will get their unpopular stuff through parliament and if julia still stinks early/mid next year replace her, not sure with who though.

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This situation is ridiculous!

Isn't it strange that while Gillard is trying to fast track the carbon tax legislation - the opposition is quiet about it?

Liberals oppose the carbon tax but believes that a Labor carbon tax is their best asset for the next election.

I actually agree with this analysis. If the carbon tax is legislated, a change in Labor leadership will not matter. Abbott is a brilliant scare campaigner and will win by a landslide in the next election if a carbon tax is enacted.

The best thing Labor should do is delay the carbon tax legislation while blaming "circumstances" - such as the great economic uncertainties in Europe. They could claim prudent economic management by keeping the tax as a policy, but wanting to introduce it when there is more global economic stability.

What Labor is doing now is just plain stupid!

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What Labor is doing now is just plain stupid!

They see the writing on the wall and know they will probably be crushed at the next election, and possibly remain in the wilderness for many years. They are trying to push through ideological policy before they get booted out.

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They see the writing on the wall and know they will probably be crushed at the next election, and possibly remain in the wilderness for many years. They are trying to push through ideological policy before they get booted out.

die hard party supporters vote like they're supporting a football team. it's the swinging voters that matter. imo these swingers vote for a leader, not a party, or their local member. in a way they're not even highly cognisant of which party the leader is from. get the 'nasties' through, change leaders, new leader blames old leader promises to review/change. once elected does nothing, because really the changes didn't change all that much. people forget and discourse moves on.

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This situation is ridiculous!

Isn't it strange that while Gillard is trying to fast track the carbon tax legislation - the opposition is quiet about it?

Liberals oppose the carbon tax but believes that a Labor carbon tax is their best asset for the next election.

Anders,

I agree with your assessment of the situation, but for different reasons.

The coalition is quiet, because they know they are going to need the revenue from this tax.

It is better for them that Labour introduce it, and as long as they don't protest too loudly, they can forever point to Labour as the instigator of this terrible imposition. Meanwhile, doing nothing to relieve it.

The Treasury, I'm sure has informed Joe Hockey and others that they are going to need this (or at least some other form of revenue) to survive the next 5 years.

I can see your point, but I think it is for more pragmatic and practical reasons, that they aren't being more vocal in their opposition. Its token at best.

Whatever government is in power after the next election, is going to have a helluva time trying to balance the budget and stay in surplus. Why do you think Julia, did an about turn on the issue? Revenue side of the balance sheet must be taking a massive hit. Rudd saw it early and tried to introduce the Resources tax. He underestimated his enemy.

Not saying you are wrong, but giving another view.

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i just watched julia putting forward the carbon tax,

umm.. we apologise..umm. sorry..umm

when are we going to get a pm with balls...

we will decide..

no Australian child shall live..

etc

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This situation is ridiculous!

Isn't it strange that while Gillard is trying to fast track the carbon tax legislation - the opposition is quiet about it?

Liberals oppose the carbon tax but believes that a Labor carbon tax is their best asset for the next election.

I actually agree with this analysis. If the carbon tax is legislated, a change in Labor leadership will not matter. Abbott is a brilliant scare campaigner and will win by a landslide in the next election if a carbon tax is enacted.

The best thing Labor should do is delay the carbon tax legislation while blaming "circumstances" - such as the great economic uncertainties in Europe. They could claim prudent economic management by keeping the tax as a policy, but wanting to introduce it when there is more global economic stability.

What Labor is doing now is just plain stupid!

If they backflip on the carbon tax now then that will just add to the weight of all of the other backflip debacles (incl the malaysian solution) Why would they add a backflip on the carbon tax to this? :blink: They already look weak and indecisive so there's no reason to make it worse for themselves.

Let Gillard soak up the political pain and then see how it goes. Parachuting Rudd back would be painted as cowardly. She back stabbed Kevin, lied before the election about implementing a carbon tax, then gets the hell out of dodge before you even get a chance to voice your displeasure.

Rudd gets reinstated like some Shakespearian tragedy and all's right with the universe. (Actually, that might fly! :o )

If I was Abbott I'd prefer Julia as the opponent more than anyone else except Craig Thompson (or Peter Garrett :D )

I've heard Stephen Smiths name touted as an alternative to Rudd. The rationale being that he's from a resource state and would help to placate them as he 'understands' the industry.

Personally I don't mind Combet. But seniority dictates that he's to new. Shorten will be maneuvering as we speak. Also too new but also too ambitious. Crean? Been there done that. No. Emerson? God no. Fitzgibbon? No. Ferguson? :P Wong? I don't think so.

Lets face it Rudd is their only choice should they decide to remove Julia.

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Julia will remain, there is no benefit of replacing her. Carbon Tax is put in early enough to actually see what affect it will have on Australians a year later people will get their choice.

Just good old Tony Abbott still spitting the dummy because he wants to be Prime Minister and he just jumping up and down crying about it in different ways (love to be a fly on the wall hearing what he is really saying) . Like today about the suicide note it is rehashed from Labour so many years ago in relation to Hewsons GST.

He is not original and believes he has the Australian Public fooled enough to side with him, lets just wait and see when he actually starts to make some policies and see how flawed they will be. The polls might indicate whatever now but time is a funny thing and the closer you get to an election the closer the poll.

They keep polling the liberal party and their supposters, there is no other explanation for it, same result give or take a couple of % points.

Julia will stay she is doing a good job despite the bias etc towards her! :thumbsup:

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Your forgot our Honourable Deputy Prime Minister among all those contenders! :rolleyes:

Yes, I was trying to limit the field to vaguely plausible candidates. :)

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Galaxy poll today shows that Kevin is the preferred Labor leader by 60% vs 26%.

Other polls show that Labor has 27%-28% primary votes.

I just don't understand the Labor party. They are facing one of the most disliked opposition leaders in modern history - and those are the voting figures?

What the crap? If you can't be seen as a good performing government with an opposition leader like Tony Abbot, what hope would you have with a well liked opposition leader? It is mind boggling how anyone on the left can defend her performance.

Also, now there are 90% of the population that are against the Malaysia "solution" according to the Galaxy poll.

Come on, Labor! Get rid of Julia and give us a decent Prime Minister.

Edited by AndersB

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I don't think Tor is eligible.

Because I would piss people off more than Julia / Abbott? You say the kindest things :)

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Strike two with the breaking of the Wilkie deal. Is Julia a complete bullsh*tter? Signal to any vested interest. If you have a beef with policy just launch a new media campaign in marginal seats and wait for the government to back down. This is how democracy works.

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Strike two with the breaking of the Wilkie deal. Is Julia a complete bullsh*tter? Signal to any vested interest. If you have a beef with policy just launch a new media campaign in marginal seats and wait for the government to back down. This is how democracy works.

juliar says there is not the support in parliament for wilkies laws. Labor MPs will do as they are told or they will be thrown out of the party, so they will do as they are told. i haven't heard the independents saying they oppose it. so the claim that it wouldn't get through parliament is just BS. Juliar doesn't want it to get through. why hasn't the media picked up on this?

wilkie's just as much a leech as Juliar, wanting to serve his full term, knowing chances are he won't get a second. he states he won't vote a no confidence motion. if i'd had a written agreement with juliar and she reneged i'd be screaming no confidence from the trees.

interesting that 10% of poker machines are owned by the versions of the labor party. strong motivation to keep the status.

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juliar says there is not the support in parliament for wilkies laws. Labor MPs will do as they are told or they will be thrown out of the party, so they will do as they are told. i haven't heard the independents saying they oppose it. so the claim that it wouldn't get through parliament is just BS. Juliar doesn't want it to get through. why hasn't the media picked up on this?

wilkie's just as much a leech as Juliar, wanting to serve his full term, knowing chances are he won't get a second. he states he won't vote a no confidence motion. if i'd had a written agreement with juliar and she reneged i'd be screaming no confidence from the trees.

interesting that 10% of poker machines are owned by the versions of the labor party. strong motivation to keep the status.

Correct - It's nothing to do with getting the legislation through parliament. They are getting hammered in the marginal seats by the clubs australia campaign. A lot of backbenchers are panicking as clubs are more often the haunts of labor voters. Labor never wanted the policy in the first place. It seems that she will say and do anything to stay in power. Her credibility is shot completely.

The labor clubs are big in Canberra so I suspect that you're right and that is why the pre-commitment trial is more easily implemented in the ACT.

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Correct - It's nothing to do with getting the legislation through parliament. They are getting hammered in the marginal seats by the clubs australia campaign. A lot of backbenchers are panicking as clubs are more often the haunts of labor voters. Labor never wanted the policy in the first place. It seems that she will say and do anything to stay in power. Her credibility is shot completely.

The labor clubs are big in Canberra so I suspect that you're right and that is why the pre-commitment trial is more easily implemented in the ACT.

and the state govts would be shrieking at the potential loss of revenue!

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Don't forget if you implement a new law you need to compensate.

He added that the $36 million compensation package for ACT clubs trialling pre-commitment technology could also see the ALP "better off".

He said the ACT Labor Club had kicked in $600,000 in donations to the ALP in 2009-10.

Not the best article I just wanted to provide a source for the compensation package.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/alp-poker-machine-compensation-sham/story-e6frea8c-1226251677823

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