Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
itching

An evening with Shane Oliver

7 posts in this topic

I just got home from a NAB function which was basically Shane Oliver from AMP presenting his thoughts on investing in regards to a whole range of topics.

A quick summary

Investing over the last few years has been impossibly difficult

ASX very undervalued (by about 15-20%)

Companies in Australia will flourish bc of China over the next 4 or 5 years

No chance that China is in a bubble (20 million moving to cities each year - have to build 20 adeliades each year)

Very bullish on the BRIC's especaially India (apparently they will be the biggest sucess)

Oil will go higher but $140 a barrell will create problems

Oil discovery is rapidly decreasing while use is increasing very quickly, but he doesnt believe in peak oil (:huh:???)

No chance of USA hyper-inflation bc of high unemployemnt and ppl arent spending (he talked about and made fun of marc faber for a bit)

Gold will go to $2000, but investing in it makes no sense

Drumroll - Australian housing

when the title came up this is his exact words, "the problem I have with housing here is the stupid prices people are prepared to pay" the herd were visibally confronted by this

he talked about and showed a graph of aust housing vs mans average wage

he said prices are high no matter which metric you use but....................................

no crash bc we have a shortage, but prices are going no where fast

he even said he thiks his kids will not ever be able to buy but when he dies they will sell his place to get a deposit each

prices will ease everywhere except avalon (thats where he lives - that was actually quite funny)

his summary property was a good investment if you bought in the 80's or 90's but if you buy know it will be a dud for the next 10 or so years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for sharing itching.

Companies in Australia will flourish bc of China over the next 4 or 5 years

I reckon the length of time is 2 years odd perhaps even less based on the amount of new production coming on line in 2013 / 2014. China just does not need that much iron!!! Could be sooner of course these things end quite suddenly once capacity reaches demand.

I reckon 5 years is optimistic but at least he is not saying we can go on investing 50bn odd a year in new resources projects plus all Brazils, Indias and Chinas own investment and just keep the prices high and go on investing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

his summary property was a good investment if you bought in the 80's or 90's but if you buy know it will be a dud for the next 10 or so years

He actually said that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He actually said that?

ANZ want house prices to correct:

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/bring-on-house-price-fall-says-anz/story-e6frfmd0-1226049591441

methinks NAB want the same thing.

Niether ANZ or NAB are as dependant on residential property as Westpac or CBA - a correction would position them better, relatively, and potentially allow for more international funding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He actually said that?

Bernie I couldnt tell you his exact words, but it was along the lines of - We cant see how you can make money in residential RE if you buy at these prices. Then someone asked about property in general and he said maybe they could think about commercial if they had their heart set on RE.

He talked about borrowing at 7 or 8% and buying something making 3 or 4% isnt the best way to make money going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He talked about borrowing at 7 or 8% and buying something making 3 or 4% isnt the best way to make money going forward.

I never thought I'd see the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never thought I'd see the day.

i presume that the evening was not recorded or attended by the msm. what the paid spruikers say in the public eye and a private party are very different.

i'm not surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0