zaph

median drops

16 posts in this topic

http://www.domain.co...0into%20reverse

fall's out the bottom of? not a plunge, not a drop, not even a correction, nor a backwards but 'reverse'

Interest rate rises send house prices into reverse

Author: Chris Vedelago

Date: November 24, 2009

Publication: Sydney Morning Herald (subscribe)

Get ready for a surprise. Despite the appearance of a market on fire, new figures from Residex show that property prices may have lost ground for the first time in six months.

Residex reports median house values dropped 0.91 per cent nation-wide and 1.15 per cent in Melbourne in October, a sharp reversal on the moderate to strong growth witnessed every month since April.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.domain.co...0into%20reverse

fall's out the bottom of? not a plunge, not a drop, not even a correction, nor a backwards but 'reverse'

Interest rate rises send house prices into reverse

Author: Chris Vedelago

Date: November 24, 2009

Publication: Sydney Morning Herald (subscribe)

Get ready for a surprise. Despite the appearance of a market on fire, new figures from Residex show that property prices may have lost ground for the first time in six months.

Residex reports median house values dropped 0.91 per cent nation-wide and 1.15 per cent in Melbourne in October, a sharp reversal on the moderate to strong growth witnessed every month since April.

That's about $5k on the average house price of $500k. The fhvg was $7k, funny that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.091% in 1 month is 11.48% annualised (month on month compounding). That is all you need to get an Irish scenario. That is a crash.

The US market down 9.4% yoy and its a sh*t fight.

http://www.forbes.co...afx7153680.html

remind me what happened in october?

will the RPdata figures agree?

i hear nothing is selling in cairns.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

remind me what happened in october?

will the RPdata figures agree?

i hear nothing is selling in cairns.

My maths was wrong I was compounding UP not DOWN...

-0.91% in 1 month is -10.38% annualised (month on month compounding... 0.9909^12=-0.8961)

CS is selling well middle of road (3 for sale in my street all have sold stickers in a couple of weeks but I understand settlement prices are lowered on the sold). The high end is frozen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At -1% a month in 3 years you have -30% (0.9936 = 0.6964).

Doesn't matter because if confidence in housing is loss the depreciation of the asset class will accelerate over time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't matter because if confidence in housing is loss the depreciation of the asset class will accelerate over time.

Are you saying that the wildebeeste may stampede as opposed to graceful exit ala antelope? :laugh:

Wait for another bailout before tallying 6 months of 1% drops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you saying that the wildebeeste may stampede as opposed to graceful exit ala antelope? laugh.gif

Wait for another bailout before tallying 6 months of 1% drops.

Yep, so long as there are no bailouts, the Wilderbeast will stampede.

FHBs brought forward by 2-3 years.

Double peak.

IRs rising.

Rental and for sale supply increasing.

Debt levels stretched.

Government in the red.

All we need is lack of confidence in the housing asset class and those ugly plains animals will be tripping over each other on their way out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know how useful it is to annualise monthly figures, especially when the monthly movement is probably within the range of statistical noise...

i hear nothing is selling in cairns.

Plenty of luxury units discounted by 20% to 30% in Cairns and further north, plus one large agency offering 20% discount on all residential rents. Luxury ($400+/night) accommodation all offering free nights. A council public servant quoted me 1/12 Cairns residents were locals 2 years ago, now 1/7. That's got to be hurting if correct. Last week there was an argument on the radio over whether the unemployment rate was still over 10% or whether it had really plunged by half...

All anecdotal, even if on-ground. The biggest take-home is how vulnerable the area is to external events.

Nice weather too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wanna be a crocodile waiting in the river. Snapping up some housing bargains. Sorry, terrible pun :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wanna be a crocodile waiting in the river. Snapping up some housing bargains. Sorry, terrible pun :huh:

Work out where the bail out money is being spent and get a job there.

2 good things about this plan: 1. When the money dried up you know it is time to start looking and 2. they are spending money hand over fist.

I have worked 3 x ~120 hour weeks in the past 4 (the other was a paltry 100). I am currently guaranteed 120 weeks til the end of the year. This time of year is always busy but I am now subbing out work, the bailout money is floating through the system I tells ya.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Work out where the bail out money is being spent and get a job there.

2 good things about this plan: 1. When the money dried up you know it is time to start looking and 2. they are spending money hand over fist.

I have worked 3 x ~120 hour weeks in the past 4 (the other was a paltry 100). I am currently guaranteed 120 weeks til the end of the year. This time of year is always busy but I am now subbing out work, the bailout money is floating through the system I tells ya.

I have worked 3 x ~120 hour weeks in the past 4 (the other was a paltry 100)
Yep another IT Xmas for me too, Worked 4/4 weekends gone. At Xmas you feel like the cleaner bustling around while the "workers" are away. Are you doing government work? Don't answer if not comfortable. No shortage of work in my world. They don't pay me for 120 hours but they get quite a few for free. Do get overtime though. That's nice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep another IT Xmas for me too, Worked 4/4 weekends gone. At Xmas you feel like the cleaner bustling around while the "workers" are away. Are you doing government work? Don't answer if not comfortable. No shortage of work in my world. They don't pay me for 120 hours but they get quite a few for free. Do get overtime though. That's nice.

I work for anyone willing to pay :)

Currently I have a couple of gov jobs on the go but they are long runners, mostly doing legal and medical at the moment.

And I don't work for a second unpaid...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wanna be a crocodile waiting in the river. Snapping up some housing bargains. Sorry, terrible pun huh.gif

I got your punny. Maybe this time next year you can get a good feed. tongue.gif

PS That Mara river crossing is on my Bucket list

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could be time to bring this thread back to life.

Median sales prices as at 30-Jun-2018 for various suburbs around Sydney. A couple are chinese enclaves, which are under pressure presumably from the extra costs charged to foreigners, making Australia expensive compared to their new shopping destinations like Greece.

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

3.jpg

4.jpg

5.jpg

6.jpg

7.jpg

8.jpg

9.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now