Bernard L. Madoff

Equity Indices/Markets

850 posts in this topic

Back to that omen again...

 

What Hindenburg Omens and an Oil Crash Mean

 

So how does 2024 fit with Armstrong's model?!

 

...From another standpoint, the current oil price decline does indeed have terribly bearish implications for the stock market… for 10 years from now.  There is a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in this chart:

Crude-Oil_DJIA_10offset_Dec2014.gif

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I think in 08  everything went down , what is actually following, and what was repeatable.  this oil fall may be  correlated but a lesser drop on the DJIA this time. i cant see how our market doesnt drop  considerin all of what else is going on.

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This is going on for an eternity. But if it resolves as expected, it will provide the provide the coup d'etat to our commodities boom, now that iron has sunk.

 

breaking down...

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The ABS may need to remove the price of bread from the CPI to maintain the lie of low inflation!

 

Next rally about to start?

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Armstrong had a chart that showed a panic cycle starting this coming week. It will be interesting to watch!

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Gravity sucks!

 

Now for the dead cat bounce before the next reality check...

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Edited by cobran20

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With all the squabbles at the EU about the Greek bailout, the DAX futures point towards a 2% drop on Monday. If this coincides with a Shanghai index bust - then we could face a big rout in all stock markets.

 

I'm glad I exited all my positions before the weekend!

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we could face a big rout in all stock markets.

 

I am not the brightest but after six years of waiting for the debt implosion even I realised that there won't be a rout. The system dies without perpetual growth.

Edited by sydney3000

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Similar to Armstrong's view:

 

Lindsay redux

 

 

...It would continue into 2017 which also happens to be 15 years after the 2002 low, Lindsay's 15 year period from bear market low to bull market top. A very severe bear market would then start is 2017 and drop prices 50% or more. That bear market would then end sometime in 2019 when the 12 year period from the 2007 bull market top expires....

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Let's see if he is correct.

 

link

 

 

Turning back to the current chart above, the last upward surge for the RASI was able to get back up above +500, barely.  But now we have seen a relatively minor price dip for the DJIA and SP500 while the RASI has made a pretty significant dip. My leading indication from the eurodollar COT datasays that we should expect a major top in August 2015, and so there is not all that much time left for the RASI to get back up above +500.  An upturn from this oversold condition should be able to produce a marginally higher price high, but if it cannot produce a RASI reading above +500, then we will know that the end has arrived for the bull market. 

The mid-year rankings from Timer Digest are out now, reflecting timers' performance as of June 30.  A recap is available on our Home page.  Worth noting is that I am currently the only timer in the top 5 of all 3 categories, stocks, bonds, and gold.  The rankings are based on the "intermediate" term opinions published in our Daily Edition

Edited by cobran20

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Don't know exactly when, but it is beginning to look ripe for a reversal!

 

Next couple of months should be interesting to see how it pans out!

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Now for the dead cat bounce before the next reality check...

 

Next reality check now in progress?

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