cobran20

The AK Thread

1617 posts in this topic

What a load of spruiking simplistic bollocks on chart one (US house crash), simplistic analysis on chart 3 (AUD).

sp-so-180510-graph4-small.gif

Luci Ellis' RBA chart, tells us mortgage debt, as a percentage of housing assets, was 33 percent higher in USA, than in Australia, before the USA crashed (40 percent is 33 percent higher than 30 percent, 30 x 1.33' = 40) -- a large difference!! It took ~20 years, for the USA, to rise from 30 percent to 40 percent................. I wonder, will it take ~20 years for Australia, to reach 40 percent, from the current 30 percent, and then a crash follows here?? This if we will follow a similar path, to the USA, in other words, it is not "different here"...............

Edited by Sherlock

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Halve the asset price and that doubles the debt exposure ala USA. [MOD: Don't bait him]

Would be good for australia to be like that, but because in australia the housing debt has been rising by 10% a year you need much less then 50% drop to double the exposure, you can see from last year where a 15% home price rise brought only 6-7% debt to asset raio drop (and not 15%).

EDIT: and in 2008 a 8% home price drop brought a rise of around 15% of debt to asset ratio

Edited by boz

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Getting more and more like a discussion on house prices than economics.

Incidentally, refer the change in permissions on this subforum now shown at the top of all threads.

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Getting more and more like a discussion on house prices than economics.

Incidentally, refer the change in permissions on this subforum now shown at the top of all threads.

Well this thread is an anlysis of Kohler's graphs and some of them are goofy. His private subscription stuff is often good but his ABC stuff is well, goofy.

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You lot have been so rude to AK that he was too upset to appear on the ABC news tohight! happy.gif

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You lot have been so rude to AK that he was too upset to appear on the ABC news tohight! happy.gif

We are just vindictive bastards who take cheap shots....NOT. Good to see he meets the SS crowd for once.

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Hooray for Alan, he's No 1!!! :laugh:

does that mean market has already bottomed?

he did pick the gold top the other day when he put the gold chart on video as the only thing going up...;)

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it might be very probable that french banks are very much involved in greek debt, I don't trust very much ANZ as a source and

I don't think banks disclose their assets very easily to put numbers like ANZ do. i am sure lots of greek government changed hands in the last few months, sure many banks flogged them to their clients. anyway, the good thing for the bailout is that banks have more time to write down the loss on the greek debt when will be restructured (default), probably now european banks are still pricing the greek bond to nearly full price

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How easy it is for governments to increase supply with stimulous. I wonder if other states will follow victorias lead? Look at them their, their can truly be no calls of shortage in victoria, surely! I believe the victorian governments stimulous on new homes only is likely the most potent weapon implemented thus far amoung our governments against long term high house prices in Australia, so now it is just a waiting game.

Look at the third slide 30% increase in new home sales. That is a significant increase in supply levels.

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That RSPT one is just piss weak cash for comment. During the crash of 08 the AUD swooned to 0.60 and the Loonie a fraction of that (-37% compared to -22%). Weak as piss Alan, but I suppose the wildebeeste wouldn't know would they?

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That RSPT one is just piss weak cash for comment. During the crash of 08 the AUD swooned to 0.60 and the Loonie a fraction of that (-37% compared to -22%). Weak as piss Alan, but I suppose the wildebeeste wouldn't know would they?

AUD v CAD is a bit more complicated than that. For Everyman.

Interesting from AK's POV that two "resource based" economies have such a difference.

My query: What if we produced as many Camaro, so much lumber?

Not a fair fight, in this comparison.

Ziggy might have an opinion...

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