cobran20

The AK Thread

1484 posts in this topic

about the spruiking from AK about retail sales I like to point out that the expected data was +0.8 (not 0.5%), also the december data was revised down from -0.7% to -0.9%, so the +1.2% wasn't as much as AK like to point out

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Interesting that they claim Melbourne rose 17.6% over the year, as when I check their 31 March 09 press release, table 1, they say the Jan 09 Melbourne median value was $416k, which has risen to $455k Jan 10.

Now unless I'm getting something totally wrong, that's only about a 9.5% rise, and Sydney is even more amazing rising 10.7% from $501k Jan 09 to $494k in Jan 10 according to them :huh:

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Interesting that they claim Melbourne rose 17.6% over the year, as when I check their 31 March 09 press release, table 1, they say the Jan 09 Melbourne median value was $416k, which has risen to $455k Jan 10.

Now unless I'm getting something totally wrong, that's only about a 9.5% rise, and Sydney is even more amazing rising 10.7% from $501k Jan 09 to $494k in Jan 10 according to them huh.gif

According to that same press release:

Perth at $468.897 Jan 09

...and $472,500 Jan 10 according to their latest. Is that 7.1%? Looks more like a bug on a windshield.

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Maybe they revise their earlier figures..... but all that means is that any current figures they release are completely unreliable. Perhaps they hope that nobody ever goes back and checks, or maybe I'm just too dumb to understand RPdata maths...

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Maybe they revise their earlier figures..... but all that means is that any current figures they release are completely unreliable. Perhaps they hope that nobody ever goes back and checks, or maybe I'm just too dumb to understand RPdata maths...

Yeh... or maybe during a confidence lead recovery they just make sh*t up.

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Yeh... or maybe during a confidence lead recovery they just make sh*t up.

Yep. And most wildebeeste can't calculate tates of returm or percent increase so its rather easy. If its on TT and ACA it must be true.

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I can see AK still use the US$ as price measure for his charts.

Not that I think the AU$ is a good way to price things but at least is more usefull for australians watching the Australian TV. Most of those 2010 rises are not that big once priced in AU$

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Krudd's porkulus package came with a price tag!

I'd also like to see that graph laid over our current income revenue stream.

You see, its not only that they spent the cash in record time, but they are not going to be able to replace it at the same rates they used to.

It is going to jink along under that surplus/deficit line for quite a while to come.

IF China or another of our major trading partners fall over, it will stay there for even longer.

If there is any hiccup on the world stage now, as Tinpusher comments - our tank is empty.

This could prove disastrous, although I would like to see that graph extend back past the seventies. Some big spends in those years too.

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I'm with Solomon, I'd like to see some historical perspective on that graph, and perhaps have it presented in a % of GDP form, or inflation adjusted rather than nominal as it is now.

Still, a $70billion turnaround in 12 months is astonishing, but it has worked in that it's kept us out of recession and kept unemployment low. Judging by some of the deficits internationally, they could go much deeper into debt, but it would be politically difficult for them, as I don't think most Australians fully understand that this deficit is the main thing that's kept us out of recession, and the opposition are already leaping on it saying 'look, look, Labor are the big spenders we warned you about, they've wrecked our surplus etc..'

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Still, a $70billion turnaround in 12 months is astonishing, but it has worked in that it's kept us out of recession and kept unemployment low. Judging by some of the deficits internationally, they could go much deeper into debt, but it would be politically difficult for them, as I don't think most Australians fully understand that this deficit is the main thing that's kept us out of recession, and the opposition are already leaping on it saying 'look, look, Labor are the big spenders we warned you about, they've wrecked our surplus etc..'

Hamish, I agree.

What will be interesting for me, is the end of this year and towards the middle of next, as the stimulus spending declines, (especially the BER programme) whether private enterprise can begin to fill in the void that's going to be left.

I'm predicting major collapses in the construction industry.

There will be a flow on effect to the housing industry then, as well. Exactly what that might mean, I can't say.

But all this spending was/is dependent upon a recovery in other quarters of the economy to put a floor under the decline.

Not only domestically, but overseas in foreign markets as well.

I think it will be touch and go for us.

US is not turning around in a hurry.

Neither is Britain and some of the European economies.

I can't be sure about Asia. (A mixed bag)

But to be that far in deficit coming out of a major economic shake-up, is akin to suffering an infection, after a life saving operation.

And it doesn't help that China is starting to get a little more stubborn, in commodity trade prices.

I would dearly love to be privy to the discussions happening in the Treasury department, as they start to put the final touches to this year's budget.

I would think that there would be a few concerned looks on their faces, as we come out of our great spend.

I think AK's graph is a good wake up to what actually is going on.

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