Bernard L. Madoff

Got FOREX

881 posts in this topic

So how high can the $AUD go?

And what will force it up, or down?

While it remains at present levels, its got to be putting pressure on unemployment as well.

Interest rates.

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Argentina limits daily financial transaction per person to 1.000 Pesos (230 dollars)

http://en.mercopress..._campaign=daily

The government will restrict daily cash transactions to 1.000 Pesos (231 US dollars) per person, down from 10.000 Pesos, according to a statement in the Official Gazette. The measure affects activity in the stock and bond markets, investment funds and in the futures markets. Operations above the limit will have to be done through Argentine bank accounts that are authorized by the central bank.

More in the link.

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IMO, the worthless currency will shock a few people (and markets) this year. FIrst target is 84 and then 90.

time to rally!

post-148-077770500 1329289319_thumb.jpg

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Banking's SWIFT says ready to block Iran transactions

http://www.reuters.c...E8DH31020120217

BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON Feb 17 (Reuters) - Belgium-based SWIFT, which provides banks with a system for moving funds around the world, bowed to international pressure on Friday and said it was ready to block Iranian banks from using its network to transfer money.Expelling Iranian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication would shut down Tehran's main avenue to doing business with the rest of the world - an outcome the West believes is crucial to curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

SWIFT, which has never cut off a country before, has been closely following efforts in the United States and the European Union to develop new sanctions targeting Iran that would directly affect EU-based financial institutions.

Looks like the financial war against Iran has kicked up a gear.

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IMO, the worthless currency will shock a few people (and markets) this year. FIrst target is 84 and then 90.

One is looking good and the other isn't!

post-148-012356700 1331103578_thumb.jpg

post-148-004016300 1331103583_thumb.jpg

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Banking's SWIFT says ready to block Iran transactions

http://www.reuters.c...E8DH31020120217

Iran Cut off From Global Financial System

http://abcnews.go.co...66#.T2OKkBHxoxd

Iran was largely cut off from global commerce Thursday after the company that handles worldwide financial transactions said it was severing ties with many Iranian banks to back EU sanctions against Tehran.

The action by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, aims to enforce European Union sanctions discouraging Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.

It will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially. SWIFT is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades and global financial transactions are impossible to conduct without using it.

Because of its reach, SWIFT's decision to cut off some 30 Iranian banks and subsidiaries could hinder not only banking but also the country's lucrative crude oil industry and possibly hurt Iranian households that depend on remittances from relatives living abroad.

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," said Lazaro Campos, chief executive of the company. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In a statement, the company said the EU decision to impose sanctions "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks" and "forces SWIFT to take action."

There was no immediate reaction from the Iranian government or the banks involved. Not all Iranian banks are subject to EU sanctions.

Although Thursday's move added no new sanctions, it aimed to maximize the impact of the EU sanctions already approved.

"It's tightening the noose," said Ali Ansari, an expert on the Middle East at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "It will just reinforce what's already been happening."

And that, he said, is increasing Iran's isolation and difficulty in conducting trade and commerce.

In a statement, the European Council — comprised of the government leaders of the 27 European Union countries — said it had "developed the application" of its restrictive measures against Iran.

"In this context, the Council agreed that no specialized financial messaging shall be provided to those persons and entities subject to an asset freeze," the statement said.

In addition to sanctioning Iranian officials and freezing the assets of certain companies, the European Union plans to institute an embargo on the import of Iranian oil in July — an attempt to choke off funding for Iran's nuclear program.

The EU sanctions are aimed at forcing Iran to demonstrate to the international community that it is not trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but officials in many other countries — including the United States and Israel — believe otherwise.

SWIFT and similar services facilitate not only large financial transactions but small ones as well, raising the question of whether the EU directive could have unintended consequences.

Many Iranians, including opponents of the current regime, live abroad and may use these financial transaction services to send small amounts of money to their families back home on a regular basis.

Washington and allies Britain, France and Germany have sought a tough approach toward Iran over the nuclear issue but have run into resistance from Russia and China.

Russia, China and the four Western nations have agreed to meet with Iran in another effort to seek a negotiated solution, but East-West disagreements within the group are greater than ever.

A previous series of talks between the six and Iran ended in failure, the last one more than a year ago in Istanbul, Turkey.

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Iran Cut off From Global Financial System

http://abcnews.go.co...66#.T2OKkBHxoxd

Iran was largely cut off from global commerce Thursday after the company that handles worldwide financial transactions said it was severing ties with many Iranian banks to back EU sanctions against Tehran.

The action by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, aims to enforce European Union sanctions discouraging Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.

It will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially. SWIFT is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades and global financial transactions are impossible to conduct without using it.

Because of its reach, SWIFT's decision to cut off some 30 Iranian banks and subsidiaries could hinder not only banking but also the country's lucrative crude oil industry and possibly hurt Iranian households that depend on remittances from relatives living abroad.

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," said Lazaro Campos, chief executive of the company. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In a statement, the company said the EU decision to impose sanctions "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks" and "forces SWIFT to take action."

There was no immediate reaction from the Iranian government or the banks involved. Not all Iranian banks are subject to EU sanctions.

Although Thursday's move added no new sanctions, it aimed to maximize the impact of the EU sanctions already approved.

"It's tightening the noose," said Ali Ansari, an expert on the Middle East at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "It will just reinforce what's already been happening."

And that, he said, is increasing Iran's isolation and difficulty in conducting trade and commerce.

In a statement, the European Council — comprised of the government leaders of the 27 European Union countries — said it had "developed the application" of its restrictive measures against Iran.

"In this context, the Council agreed that no specialized financial messaging shall be provided to those persons and entities subject to an asset freeze," the statement said.

In addition to sanctioning Iranian officials and freezing the assets of certain companies, the European Union plans to institute an embargo on the import of Iranian oil in July — an attempt to choke off funding for Iran's nuclear program.

The EU sanctions are aimed at forcing Iran to demonstrate to the international community that it is not trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but officials in many other countries — including the United States and Israel — believe otherwise.

SWIFT and similar services facilitate not only large financial transactions but small ones as well, raising the question of whether the EU directive could have unintended consequences.

Many Iranians, including opponents of the current regime, live abroad and may use these financial transaction services to send small amounts of money to their families back home on a regular basis.

Washington and allies Britain, France and Germany have sought a tough approach toward Iran over the nuclear issue but have run into resistance from Russia and China.

Russia, China and the four Western nations have agreed to meet with Iran in another effort to seek a negotiated solution, but East-West disagreements within the group are greater than ever.

A previous series of talks between the six and Iran ended in failure, the last one more than a year ago in Istanbul, Turkey.

Looks like oil for gold transactions are going to become common!

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Iran Cut off From Global Financial System

http://abcnews.go.co...66#.T2OKkBHxoxd

Will SWIFT ban on Iran strangle Spain?

http://rt.com/news/i...n-gasoline-719/

With the upcoming EU electronic banking transactions ban on Iran, the Islamic Republic might face a crude economic pinch. However, in an attempt to pressure Tehran, technocrats in Brussels might actually be leading Spain to the scaffold.

SWIFT, the world's biggest electronic banking system, is preparing to cut off Iranian financial firms, including the country's Central Bank, blacklisted by the EU. The move is part of the European plan to impose an embargo on Iranian oil this summer over Tehran’s nuclear program. <br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; quotes: “, ”; ">

The EU and US are hoping to force Iran to the negotiating table by targeting its oil revenues.

But the measure is expected to backfire on average Europeans, particularly in Spain, which imports over 1.5 million barrels of oil from Iran daily.

“Even assuming that the case against Iran is strong, the sanctions right now, exercised by countries like Spain, Greece or Italy, will damage those countries more than it will damage Iran,” journalist Miguel-Anxo Murado told RT.

While countries like France and Britain can easily ban Iranian oil because they are not dependent on it, the EU’s most economically battered states – Spain, Greece and Italy – will feel the effect of the sanctions most.

“Of course we can’t refuse. The pressure from the US, Britain and France is huge,” Murado acknowledged.

Spain is Europe’s second largest importer of Iranian oil after Italy. When the EU-imposed sanctions on Tehran come into force this July, a good share of Spaniards may find driving a car an unattainable luxury.

More in the link. Looks like the PIGS are being bullied into economic and social submission!

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Australia, China sign $31B currency swap agreement

http://www.businessw...3/D9TLB8700.htm

The central banks of Australia and China signed a 200 billion yuan ($31 billion) currency swap to support trade and investment.

China has signed a slew of such agreements recently, trying to make its tightly controlled currency more internationally accepted.

The Reserve Bank of Australia says Thursday the agreement comes after China allowed the Australian dollar to be exchanged for yuan in China's bank-to-bank market.

It says the agreement reflects increasing opportunities for the yuan to be used to pay for exports and imports between the two countries.

Much of the world's trade is carried out in U.S. dollars.

The agreement allows for the exchange of the currencies between the two central banks and is for an initial three year period.

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Media release from the RBA:

http://www.rba.gov.a...2/mr-12-08.html

Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with the People's Bank of China

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia signed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). The agreement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to A$30 billion or CNY 200 billion. It is for an initial period of three years and can be activated by either party.

The main purposes of the swap agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation. The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi (RMB) and to make RMB-denominated investments. It follows the decision by the Chinese authorities last November to allow convertibility between Australian dollars and Chinese yuan in the interbank market in China.

The signing of this agreement occurred in Beijing at a ceremony between the PBC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

Enquiries:

Media Office

Information Department

Reserve Bank of Australia

SYDNEY

Phone: +61 2 9551 9720

Fax: +61 2 9551 8033

E-mail: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

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quote name='cobran20' timestamp='1333091027' post='59491']

I expect for the answer about this potential cup & handle to be known over the next 3-6 months!

To clarify, does that mean the USD is going to tank? I didn't understand the axis.

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If interest rates are going to drop, then why is the $A looking bullish? Perhaps Ben has already been engaging in QE3?!!

post-148-097146100 1335675285_thumb.jpg

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If interest rates are going to drop, then why is the $A looking bullish? Perhaps Ben has already been engaging in QE3?!!

The interest rate is not going to drop. After five years of watching ZIRP take down economy after economy the RBA would be stupid to replicate the failures of the other central banks. The AUD will drop once the other central banks raise their rates to get away from the ZIRP mess. All it takes is to have one central banker announce that ZIRP doesn't work and we are on a roll.

Edited by sydney3000

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If interest rates are going to drop, then why is the $A looking bullish? Perhaps Ben has already been engaging in QE3?!!

http://www.fxstreet....st-rates-table/

Even 3% will look fantastic.

post-167-004295700 1336198399_thumb.jpg

And another Q on this subject: What will the AUD do if there is a sudden spike in oil prices, let's say in the coming weeks?

Edited by spark

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Tehran Sets Trade Deals With India Amid Curbs

http://online.wsj.co...=googlenews_wsj

MUMBAI—An Iranian trade delegation to India has sealed deals to buy shipments of rice, sugar and soybeans from the South Asian country, as part of a plan for Tehran to use such pacts to get around U.S. financial sanctions on its oil shipments.

India has been unable to pay in full for Iranian oil imports because tightened U.S. sanctions have made it difficult to access U.S. dollars for transactions with Iran. Instead, Iran has agreed to accept payment in Indian rupees and sent a trade delegation to India this week to look for goods to buy with the money it earns.

The U.S. is threatening sanctions against financial institutions of countries that fail to significantly reduce oil imports from Iran before a June 28 deadline.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on a visit to India this week, praised New Delhi for cutting back on purchases from Iran in recent months, but urged the country to make further reductions. A senior U.S. State Department official will travel to India next week to assess the country's ability to shift more oil purchases to countries such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

While reducing purchases, Indian officials say the country—which relies on imports for three-quarters of its crude needs—has to buy from Iran to meet growing local demand for oil.

The Iranian trade delegation, whose visit coincided with Mrs. Clinton's trip to India this week, shows the delicate balance New Delhi is trying to maintain between toeing Washington's line and continuing to buy oil from Iran.

A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, Peter Vrooman, declined to comment on the Iranian trade delegation.

Yahya al Eshagh, president of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Mines, said: "We don't have anything to do with the visit of Hillary Clinton. We are very happy that we are doing our own business."

The Iranian trade delegation, which included government officials and representatives from private and state-owned companies, will wrap up its six-day visit Friday. Rafeeque Ahmed, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said private business groups had negotiated deals on agricultural commodities for shipment starting as early as this month.

Mr. Eshagh didn't disclose the size of the deals, but said both nations were looking to step up annual trade to $24 billion in the medium term from $14 billion now.

In February, Iran agreed to accept payment in Indian rupees for up to 45% of its oil exports to India, and the countries have set up a credit window between Indian and Iranian state-owned banks. That means Tehran has to find Indian exports to buy with the rupees it earns.

An Indian delegation of exporters traveled to Iran earlier this year to showcase products.

Transactions in the Iranian rial and in Indian rupees through the credit window already have begun, Mr. Eshagh said.

The U.S. is unlikely to be too worried by the payment mechanism—which Iran also has with countries such as Turkey, Iraq and Afghanistan—as it only gives Tehran access to Indian rupees and not a fully convertible currency such as the U.S. dollar, which it could use to further its nuclear program. The U.S. claims Tehran is using the program to develop nuclear weapons, while Iran says it is for peaceful energy development.

Washington, however, will be looking to see if India's overall imports of Iranian oil decrease in the months ahead, after they fell to about 9% of the country's total oil imports currently, from 12% last year. India now imports between $10 billion and $12 billion of crude oil from Iran annually.

The U.S. has exempted the European Union and Japan from potential sanctions after they significantly reduced oil imports from Iran. Washington says financial institutions from 12 other countries, including India, Turkey and China, could face sanctions unless they further reduce purchases.

With sanctions hitting the supply of goods from the U.S. and Europe, Iran is looking to buy food products and pharmaceuticals from elsewhere. It has turned to Australia, Canada, Russia and India to buy wheat, corn, soy meal and other commodities.

Iran has been negotiating to buy as much as three million tons of wheat from India, but the deal has gotten stuck over traces of fungal disease in crops from the country's northern breadbasket region. Members of the Iranian delegation said an Indian team will be visiting Tehran soon to discuss the issue. Indian officials argue most wheat crops have small traces of the fungal disease and say they believe Tehran is trying to push down the price by focusing on this.

Still, an Indian government official said that New Delhi is considering exporting wheat from other regions, such as the western state of Gujarat and central state of Madhya Pradesh, whose wheat crop is free of the fungal disease.

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Japanese carry trade unwind potential says the Age/SMH here:

http://www.theage.co...0524-1z6ua.html

Will Mrs Watanabe go cold on the dollar?

May 24, 2012 - 1:47PM

The Australian dollar, already struggling after sharp falls to six-month lows, faces a further test over Thursday and Friday with redemptions of around $600 million of uridashi - foreign currency bonds sold in Japan primarily to households - due and no guarantee that the money will be re-invested.And far more redemptions lie ahead. Over the second half of 2012, around $12 billion of uridashi will be redeemed, with $8 billion alone in the fourth quarter. Between June 2012 and July 2013, the market is looking at a total of $20 billion, figures from Westpac showed.

The big unknown is whether the Japanese retail holders - or "Mrs Watanabe" as traders have dubbed the Japanese housewife speculators who dabble in foreign currency markets - will roll their funds into other Australian dollar assets or convert them back to the yen, which would add more downward pressure to the Aussie.

Edited by dodgydamo

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The worthless currency has broken above its long term down trendline. Is capital fleeing from Europe to the US?

post-148-044826100 1337931540_thumb.jpg

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