Got FOREX

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

Can we get a sticky on this mods?

Considering the demise of the USD, the rise of the AUD and all the glory with the JPY, GBP, EUR, NZD and CHF that ensues is serious stuff.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

I put a ridiculous SELL LIMIT at 0.94 yesterday on the AUD. It hit last night and is now 0.93. Love it. Looking for 0.925. Then 0.95.

Can we get boz and sygzy over?

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

Thanks for the pin.

Its all about the FX vs Gold vs Bonds vs Equities. Interesting times ahead.

[cobran20 102]

The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets, commodities and largely gold as well, though The Precious is in a bull market irrespective.

PS: This forum only allows 300Kb attachments. Can it be increased to something like 2mb like GHPC?

cobran20.zip

[wulfgar 12]

The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets, commodities and largely gold as well, though The Precious is in a bull market irrespective.

PS: This forum only allows 300Kb attachments. Can it be increased to something like 2mb like GHPC?

What's happened Cobran? I thought you a sign in those chicken entrails?

While the Fed keeps that ridiculous QE going, the USD will remain on the steady course......down.

Most of the rise last year was due to the swaps it did with other CB's. The RBA has learned a lesson now, never swap with an entity that has 12x as much money in treasuries as in currency.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

I put a ridiculous SELL LIMIT at 0.94 yesterday on the AUD. It hit last night and is now 0.93. Love it. Looking for 0.925. Then 0.95.

That 1.5c drop took 17 hours.

Currently 0.9278 off its low of 0.9249 50mins ago. Piss weak move IMO hence my shallow profit target (now I've written that it will plummet to 0.50c).

The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets

Yup.

Bernanke is doing SFA about it. In fact I think he's riding it.

Hey mods can we up the attachment limit to post real charts?

[cobran20 102]

What's happened Cobran? I thought you a sign in those chicken entrails?

While the Fed keeps that ridiculous QE going, the USD will remain on the steady course......down.

Most of the rise last year was due to the swaps it did with other CB's. The RBA has learned a lesson now, never swap with an entity that has 12x as much money in treasuries as in currency.

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

If the DX gets to 50 what will be the Dow? 20,000?

There is some pain on the way. It will be ugly.

I still can't get my head around whether the equity bubble feeding the USD meltdown (QE money going into 'risky' assets such as equities and AUD etc) OR, The dumping of the USD feeding the equity bubble. Which is cause, which is effect or is it some sort of symbiotic feed back loop?

[wulfgar 12]

The problem is the world market extremely unstable, so I wouldn't think DOW 20,000 is on the cards.

I didn't know Johnathan Harris was on the short list for FED governor? Unfortunately he died in 2002 and they had to settle for Bernanke, an inferior comedian.

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

It won't go to zero, eventually we'll see a stand off where the US claims the USD is worth something more and market puts a low bid on it. America will introduce exchange controls to keep the nominal value up, but the world won't want it. Basically the USD won't lose nominal market price so much as become illiquid. But this is still 3 to 4 years away.

QE doesn't really work with a market that loses more money than it makes.

[pinozi 1]

There is divergence on the USD index and it looks like a bounce is a possibility. I think this 75 level holds and we get to 79/80 by years end

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

There are some very good range/swing trades at the mo as the market meanders in defined channels.

I'd like to hold this EURUSD short (green dotted on 1HR chart) as long as possible just in case it is the DX break up. Maybe exit half my position at the red dotted target and hold the other half with a sliding wide stop.

Also, tonight German GDP, US GDP, Case-Shiller home prices AND Crude inventories. Could be a volatile evening/night.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

There is divergence on the USD index and it looks like a bounce is a possibility. I think this 75 level holds and we get to 79/80 by years end

This might interest the DX intraday watchers...

[cobran20 102]

This might interest the DX intraday watchers...

Every time it attempts to rise, it gets hit over the head. There must be some big interests wanting to keep the $US dropping, presumably because of the $US carry trade and the boom to stock & commodity markets.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

An observation:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/us-dollar-is-in-secular-bear-market-and.html

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

Every time it attempts to rise, it gets hit over the head. There must be some big interests wanting to keep the $US dropping, presumably because of the $US carry trade and the boom to stock & commodity markets.

There must be some big $ vested interests.

[cobran20 102]

That overnight action settles it. The dog has crashed to new lows!

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

That overnight action settles it. The dog has crashed to new lows!

70 next?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-breaks-out-again-hits-1185-rising-channel-anticipates-dxy-70

[cobran20 102]

70 next?

http://www.zerohedge...icipates-dxy-70

Once it breaks below 74, it is in unchartered waters. 70 is as good as any guess.

[firehawk 1]

Once it breaks below 74, it is in unchartered waters. 70 is as good as any guess.

There is no real solid technical support anywhere below 70. That's the edge of the abyss or the edge of the cliff where Wile E Coyote runs out of momentum before gravity takes over.

Me, I'm all for watching the once in a lifetime spectacle of the world reserve currency crashing.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

Intraday DX

[zaph 42]

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

[tor 94]

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

Bank exposure to the Dubai loans? From memory there is potentially a bit but everyone is pointing out how they are not actually involved in dubai, they are abu dhabi or whatever.

So I guess just paranoia from the market people, who ever heard of a company exec bending the truth?

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

Flight to safety. The AUD is regarded as a risk trade and at any sign of trouble its dumped.

[Bernard L. Madoff 14]

The USD is toast. Zirp forever. Hello Japan.

http://www.theaustra...x-1225806460659

At the same time, pending legislation in the House could leave Mr Bernanke running a less independent institution. The House Financial Services Committee has passed a measure that would subject the Fed's interest-rate decisions to scrutiny by the Government Accountability Office, an investigative arm of Congress. Mr Bernanke and others at the Fed fear that with Congress looking over their shoulders, any decision they make about interest rates would be subjected to the winds of politics - making it harder to control inflation or financial bubbles.

Any changes would be months off at best, and the Fed might be successful in fending them off. In the meantime, officials are moving ahead to come up with plans to avoid another crisis.

Fed officials used to think there was little they could or should do to prevent bubbles from inflating. For one thing, identifying bubbles with any certainty was deemed to be too difficult. And even if they could be accurately pinpointed, pricking them might do more harm than good. Raising interest rates to stop a bubble, for instance, could slow growth in other parts of the economy that were otherwise healthy.

The Fed's main strategy instead was to mop up after a bubble burst with lower interest rates to cushion the blow to the economy and restart growth. That strategy was a key conclusion of Mr Bernanke's writings on the subject of bubbles when he was a Princeton professor, and again when he first came to the Fed as a governor in 2002. It was an approach embraced by his predecessor Alan Greenspan.

Now, Fed officials admit the stance didn't work. They're groping for alternatives. Of the two methods to prevent bubbles - using regulations to protect the financial system from excess and changing monetary policy by raising interest rates - Mr Bernanke falls on the side of greater regulation, an idea he has advocated in the past.

"The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset price bubble bursts in the future," Mr Bernanke said in answer to a question after a speech in New York last month.

Playing the interest-rate card, in contrast, is considered by many to be a more aggressive and risky move. On Tuesday, Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser said interest rates were "a very blunt instrument" to thwart a possible bubble. He said raising rates could "affect all other asset prices at the same time."

[cobran20 102]

The USD is toast. Zirp forever. Hello Japan.

http://www.theaustra...x-1225806460659

Perhaps the Government Accountability Office might stop Ben from devaluing the $US and force US interest rates to rise?