BearTrap

What is a "regular" member ?

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Hello.. what is "regular" member & why can they post in this "economics" forum only ? How shall I nrcome a "regular" member please ? Thanks !

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Hello.. what is "regular" member & why can they post in this "economics" forum only ? How shall I nrcome a "regular" member please ? Thanks !

Well, a regular member has perspective. They show a maturity which non regular members lack. They have balance. They appreciate that life isn't all about property. There's shares, bonds, forex and interest bearing term deposits as well. ^_^ They contribute to forum life in a positive way. They share their point of view and accumulated knowledge and experience and will happily put themselves out to help other forum members. Last but by no means least they show their humanity by posting (at least one) and hopefully more recipes in the mandatory recipe thread and don't squib out of a promised curry recipe. :o

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Hello.. what is "regular" member & why can they post in this "economics" forum only ? How shall I nrcome a "regular" member please ? Thanks !

If you're not "regular" you are probably backed up. Some would prescribe oral laxatives, but they don't tend to work if the problem is chronic and untreated. Perhaps for you BT, the answer is to skip past the enema and go for immediate digital disimpaction. Ask your local doctor - constipation can be fatal! Edited by Trips

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Or for the more technically minded, "members", "advanced members" or the various admin/mod groups. Not the VIP group.

But otherwise, what StaringClown said was right on the mark :)

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If you're not "regular" you are probably backed up. Some would prescribe oral laxatives, but they don't tend to work if the problem is chronic and untreated. Perhaps for you BT, the answer is to skip past the enema and go for immediate digital disimpaction. Ask your local doctor - constipation can be fatal!

This is flashing in front of my mind

go for immediate digital disimpaction

A 6 limbed, 2 headed critter with a hand up his quoit...not pretty. :shocking:

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How shall I nrcome a "regular" member please ? Thanks !

Be able to contribute logically to a discussion about global economics as opposed to being a troll with a feigned shortcoming in English?

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Or for the more technically minded, "members", "advanced members" or the various admin/mod groups. Not the VIP group.

But otherwise, what StaringClown said was right on the mark :)

Well, a regular member has perspective. They show a maturity which non regular members lack. They have balance. They appreciate that life isn't all about property. There's shares, bonds, forex and interest bearing term deposits as well.

Bizarre, it seems I am also unable, to post in the Economics subforum. RumpledElf, you said StaringClown is on the mark, then how is one supposed to post, about shares, forex et al, if one is not allowed to post at all, in the Economics subforum?? Seems to me, like a Catch 22................ we will only be permitted, to post about shares and bonds, after we first demonstrate we can post about shares and bonds?? Bizarre tactics, I gather this is designed to further alienate those people, without a "bearish" outlook......................... unsurprising that you have so few here!!

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There's hardly anyone in the VIP group, and since most of those people share either IP addresses, patterns of speech, or take turns using up their post limit I wouldn't be surprised if its actually a one person club. You have to be 'special' to get in that group in the first place.

Easiest way to get out of that group is to behave consistently like a perfectly normal human being for an extended time period. Something that is apparently hard to do for some people ...

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There's hardly anyone in the VIP group, and since most of those people share either IP addresses, patterns of speech, or take turns using up their post limit I wouldn't be surprised if its actually a one person club. You have to be 'special' to get in that group in the first place.

Easiest way to get out of that group is to behave consistently like a perfectly normal human being for an extended time period. Something that is apparently hard to do for some people ...

Members of "VIP" group --


  • Abdul Kalam
    Reputation: 0

  • BearTrap
    Reputation: -4

  • Frank Castle
    Reputation: 7

  • jamesw
    Reputation: 0

  • Sally Periwinkle
    Reputation: 0

  • Shadow
    Reputation: 59

  • Sherlock
    Reputation: 11

    • Yorke
      Reputation: 16

BearTrap, Frank, Shadow, Yorke, me -- why what do you know, all the bulls, are in the restricted group. And you say they're the same person??

No bias here, nothing to see, S&S forum welcomes bulls & bears equally............. NOT!!

Probable the other three unfortunate souls, had the misfortune to say something non-bearish, got shunted in there too?? No "bears" in that group, naturally, bears are "special".....................

Edited by Sherlock
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There's hardly anyone in the VIP group, and since most of those people share either IP addresses, patterns of speech, or take turns using up their post limit I wouldn't be surprised if its actually a one person club.

I shall 100 pc guarnatee I never use my posting limit any day ! I should not any longer be in this group please ?

Easiest way to get out of that group is to behave consistently like a perfectly normal human being for an extended time period.

"perfectly normal" = "have a bear opinion" ?

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Some of those logins haven't even posted - they just have duplicate IPs.

You're saying we have 269 bears (subtract spammers of course) and 8 bulls then? Seems wrong ...

Also what defines a bull? Its obviously not people who own PPoRs, nor is it landlords. Likewise a bear clearly isn't someone who rents.

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Some of those logins haven't even posted - they just have duplicate IPs.

You're saying we have 269 bears (subtract spammers of course) and 8 bulls then? Seems wrong ...

Also what defines a bull? Its obviously not people who own PPoRs, nor is it landlords. Likewise a bear clearly isn't someone who rents.

A "bull", is someone, who thinks dwelling values won't crash, and will probably rise, and wants them to rise. People like you keep locked in your "lower class" group -- Yorke, Frank Castle, Shadow, BearTrap, Me!!

Will you name anybody here, outside your "lower class" group, who thinks prices will not crash, and wants them to rise?? Anybody??

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Start a poll.

I'll vote for overall stagnation with a bit of local 'down' thrown in.

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A "bull", is someone, who thinks dwelling values won't crash, and will probably rise, and wants them to rise. People like you keep locked in your "lower class" group -- Yorke, Frank Castle, Shadow, BearTrap, Me!!

Will you name anybody here, outside your "lower class" group, who thinks prices will not crash, and wants them to rise?? Anybody??

That would possibly be me, Sherlock.

I want them to rise, after they have fallen to a reasonable price and each of my children have had an opportunity to purchase at a price that will not imprison them for 30 years to a mortgage enslavement, that will see them miss out on enjoying the rest of their life.

Its possible they will not crash. I won't mind if they drop consistently over the next 10 years at a rate which allows them to be 40 - 50% below current levels.

Furthermore, in this process of rising and falling, crashing and climbing, I hope that all those greedy people who made a killing on naive young people just starting out in life, get their just desserts.

Especially those who have been responsible for the escalation in home prices since the late 1990's.

I would like to believe that I can't be labelled, as either a bull or a bear. (i can't imagine who came up with such inane names in the first place - why not moles and eagles)

I'm not sure why RE has not placed me in the VIP lounge with you, but I acknowledge her ability and freedom to do so if she wishes.

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Start a poll.

I'll vote for overall stagnation with a bit of local 'down' thrown in.

A poll you say?? We're permitted to do that, are we, we still have that right, how many posts, from our limit, does that consume?? Would you do it BT -- I have but 2 posts remaining...............

Edit to add -- never mind BT, I'll do it, I'll get more posts back, tomorrow.

I want them to rise, after they have fallen

I won't mind if they drop consistently over the next 10 years at a rate which allows them to be 40 - 50% below current levels.

I hope that all those greedy people who made a killing on naive young people just starting out in life, get their just desserts.

You're definitely not a bull!!

Edited by Sherlock

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Also what defines a bull?

Investopedia explains Bull

Bulls are optimistic investors who are presently predicting good things for the market, and are attempting to profit from this upward movement. For example if you are bullish on the S&P 500 you will attempt to profit from a rise in the index by going long on it. Bulls are are the exact opposite of the market's bears, who are pessimistic and believe that a particular security, commodity or entity will suffer a decline in price.

Bullishness does not necessarily apply only to the stock market; you could for example be bullish on just about anything, including commodities like soy beans, crude oil or even peanuts.

The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" are obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market". In French "bulle spéculative" refers to a speculative market bubble. The Online Etymology Dictionary relates the word "bull" to "inflate, swell", and dates its stock market connotation to 1714.[14]

One hypothetical etymology points to London bearskin "jobbers" (market makers),[citation needed] who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism.[citation needed] By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.

Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or swindle. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. However in a falling market, the counterparties—the "bearers" of the commodity to be delivered—win because they have locked in a future delivery price that is higher than the current price.[citation needed]

Some analogies that have been used as mnemonic devices:

* Bull is short for 'bully', in its now mostly obsolete meaning of 'excellent'.

* It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e. bear-baiting and bull-baiting.

* It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks upwards with its horns, while a bear swipes downwards with its paws.

* It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are thought of as lazy and cautious movers—a misconception because a bear, under the right conditions, can outrun a horse.[15]

* They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.

* Bears hibernate, while bulls do not.[citation needed]

* The word "bull" plays off the market's returns being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".

In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.[16]

International sculpture team Mark and Diane Weisbeck were chosen to re-design Wall Street's Bull Market. Their winning sculpture, the "Bull Market Rocket" was chosen as the modern, 21st century symbol of the up-trending Bull Market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend#Investor_sentiment

I am BULLish on some sov and corp bond yields and carry trade funding currencies (eg USD, JPY). Does that mean I WANT them to go up? Not particularly, I just think they will.

My kids WANT more cash, my dog WANTs a treat. I've never associated wishful thinking with post analytical directional sentiment - until now.

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Well, by that definition I'm quite bullish on my local property market - I have my optimism t-shirt on see nothing but roses and lollipops and kittens for the next couple of years at least, mainly because we have a pro-development council, loads of infrastructure spending and it is still reasonably affordable here so we're attracting cashed-up city escapees.

After that its anyone's guess. If a bigger market goes bust, the smaller ones eventually follow. The same way we've been lagging way behind Adelaide, which lags behind Sydney ...

As Frank used to say, its all about the micro-markets ...

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Will you name anybody here, outside your "lower class" group, who thinks prices will not crash, and wants them to rise?? Anybody??

Do you even read the forum? I have been saying for ages that this is what I want.

House prices to increase by a bit less than inflation. Perfect.

There are others that agree with me, we were talking about it all of a week ago.

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House prices to increase by a bit less than inflation. Perfect.

<splitting hairs> That's just a variation on stagflation! </splitting hairs>

:P

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<splitting hairs> That's just a variation on stagflation! </splitting hairs>

:P

He said "who thinks prices will not crash, and wants them to rise??"

and I want decades of it.

If he had asked "who here wants to get rich by just getting a loan and buying the first property that comes along?" it would be a completely different question.

I think that is what he thought he asked but my desire meets his statement exactly and I would hate to put words in his mouth.

Funny though, you would think anyone that was an astute investor would be aware of my scenario (especially if they read a forum where I yammer on about it regularly) and would phrase their question more accurately.

So I guess one (or more) of three options:

1. Not an astute investor

2. Doesn't read these forums

3. Astute investors are unaware of stagflation and how bad it is for an asset class

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Rising under inflation for an extended period of time is the nastiest of the scenarios for the average joe.

They still THINK their house is going up but really the value is slowly being eroded. Gives them a false sense of security.

Your average joe can't even work out that if they buy a house for $450,000 and sell it a couple of years later for $500,000 they haven't made $50,000. In fact, after stamp duty, mortgage insurance, REA commission on sale, mortgage break fees and a couple of years of paying anything up to $30,000 in interest they've actually made a loss, and with those figures - it can be a considerable loss. But on paper its a profit!

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A "bull", is someone, who thinks dwelling values won't crash, and will probably rise, and wants them to rise. People like you keep locked in your "lower class" group -- Yorke, Frank Castle, Shadow, BearTrap, Me!!

Will you name anybody here, outside your "lower class" group, who thinks prices will not crash, and wants them to rise?? Anybody??

I don't know that prices will crash. I believe that property is ridiculously expensive at the moment, certainly. I also believe there are economic fundamentals that say property won't keep rising forever. Who wins if property keeps rising anyway?

I work with IP owners and I don't dislike them. They are as interested in property as I am. We got stuff in common. (Even whisperings of a correction lately amongst the ones that watch such things. :) ) We discuss many other things than just property. They are "normal" people. They are not flawless and neither am I but anything from "navigational techniques at sea" to "the battle of maldon" get discussed cos that's what you do with "normal" folk. And of course drinking beer.

You guys yell at me to get "in to property" before it's too late. I'm priced out forever. If I want that crap I'll read the papers. If I believed that property would rise forever I'd buy tomorrow. I don't so I won't. The RE industry is not transparent. It's how people like me end up on sites like this. I type questions into google. Like "Why is there no transparency in the property market and all the others are regulated?" or "property bubble". We don't know who you are? You have no context? Have a seat. Tell us about yourself...

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