cobran20

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The All Ords broke the long term trendline from the March 2009 lows today. If it breaks below 4500, then the correction will start getting serious!

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I don't dabble in shares, or have any financial credentials to speak of, yet I still find it fascinating that someone says something in a speech, and the market throws a wobbly.

I always thought that such people were logical, rational, highly intellectual individuals who could hardly be spooked by a few words about something that may or may not happen at some tenuous time in the future. No!

Get out, and get out now.

Admittedly, it was the President of the United States, and he was advocating serious change to the banking structure of that country.

But......

The thing I never fully get, is that someone then has to buy those stakes that are sold. So why aren't they scared???

Also, if President Obama is advocating that in America, does that mean markets in Australia, Asia, UK, Europe and every other country seemingly should also turn negative?

Or is it something else altogether, and that is the excuse that the media use to ascertain why the market shifted?

Just pondering, the imponderable.

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its better to get out when the price is high than low. you can always buy back at a lower price, after all if it was a bargain when u paid $1 it should be a better bargain at 0.80c . then there are big investment funds that trade up and down. buying back at lower prices. after selling at higher, they make a percent on that and still have the shares. then there is the whole futires and shorting game i know not much about., but thats has a down is good method if you are on the right side of it.

thing that gets me is the US shares must be the sickest dog on the planet and who would buy it at any price , theyre screwed.

some say fear is the only thing that drives the market, fear you are losing money, and fear your not making money.

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I don't dabble in shares, or have any financial credentials to speak of, yet I still find it fascinating that someone says something in a speech, and the market throws a wobbly.

I always thought that such people were logical, rational, highly intellectual individuals who could hardly be spooked by a few words about something that may or may not happen at some tenuous time in the future. No!

Get out, and get out now.

Admittedly, it was the President of the United States, and he was advocating serious change to the banking structure of that country.

But......

The thing I never fully get, is that someone then has to buy those stakes that are sold. So why aren't they scared???

Also, if President Obama is advocating that in America, does that mean markets in Australia, Asia, UK, Europe and every other country seemingly should also turn negative?

Or is it something else altogether, and that is the excuse that the media use to ascertain why the market shifted?

Just pondering, the imponderable.

When the US went into it's current fun most other countries followed.

Many people would love to have sold in september and missed a few extra pips. They are the types selling now maybe.

Many day traders and TA people figure they can buy now and make a few pips. They are buying.

A bunch of institutional types _have_ to keep buying (index people etc) as money comes in. They are buying.

Some people are smarter than the rest, they are either buying or selling. Cobran might be able to help with that.

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THe RBA's balance sheet keeps dropping. We should be finding within the next couple of months of the correlation between the two continues.

Another week, another drop. This time, the ASX could be joining in the party.

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The All Ords broke the long term trendline from the March 2009 lows today. If it breaks below 4500, then the correction will start getting serious!

i was a bit surprised that the USA share index overnight broke through down the 50% fib retracement with no resistance.

may be if the S&P500 bounce up to 1120 would be a good place to enter short, for the ASX probably 4800 is a good short entry

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When the US went into it's current fun most other countries followed.

Many people would love to have sold in september and missed a few extra pips. They are the types selling now maybe.

Many day traders and TA people figure they can buy now and make a few pips. They are buying.

A bunch of institutional types _have_ to keep buying (index people etc) as money comes in. They are buying.

Some people are smarter than the rest, they are either buying or selling. Cobran might be able to help with that.

Thanks tor.

Fair enough I guess.

But it seems so whimsical to base so much on the few words of the president, who only threatened reform. (Isn't there some doubt that he can even deliver?)

I can't know exactly but I imagine millions of dollars have been wiped from the value of various companies based upon the words of a president.

Some individuals have possibly gambled millions on the validity or otherwise of the president's threat.

And its not just him.

The head of the Federal Reserve says something and markets shift up or down based on those words.

These are obviously powerful men/women and people need to respect their positions, but to base a transfer of wealth upon that seems somehow a very fragile system.

That's all I was trying to suggest.

It seems such an illogical, and irrational response.

I do know that there are many smart people out there. Some people have amazing intellect and powers of insight and reason, but prediction of the future???

I'm assuming then that they have information we do not have, and therefore know what they are doing.

And its got nothing to do with the president's words.

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i was a bit surprised that the USA share index overnight broke through down the 50% fib retracement with no resistance.

may be if the S&P500 bounce up to 1120 would be a good place to enter short, for the ASX probably 4800 is a good short entry

There still has been no serious correction to the rally from the March 2009 lows. We'll have to see if this one has any legs. If this has been a rally against the 2007-8 bear market, then the 50% retracement is a common turning point. But way to early to know. I took profits on a resource share I had early in the week and hoping for small rally to unload the rest.

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Thanks tor.

Fair enough I guess.

But it seems so whimsical to base so much on the few words of the president, who only threatened reform. (Isn't there some doubt that he can even deliver?)

I can't know exactly but I imagine millions of dollars have been wiped from the value of various companies based upon the words of a president.

Some individuals have possibly gambled millions on the validity or otherwise of the president's threat.

And its not just him.

The head of the Federal Reserve says something and markets shift up or down based on those words.

These are obviously powerful men/women and people need to respect their positions, but to base a transfer of wealth upon that seems somehow a very fragile system.

That's all I was trying to suggest.

It seems such an illogical, and irrational response.

I do know that there are many smart people out there. Some people have amazing intellect and powers of insight and reason, but prediction of the future???

I'm assuming then that they have information we do not have, and therefore know what they are doing.

And its got nothing to do with the president's words.

Think more in line with gamblers then with those able to predict the future or inside traders.

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Copper's rise has been fast & furious. Together with the uber bullish news on the broad media about metal prices, it makes me think that a correction in the metal's price is ahead.

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There still has been no serious correction to the rally from the March 2009 lows. We'll have to see if this one has any legs. If this has been a rally against the 2007-8 bear market, then the 50% retracement is a common turning point. But way to early to know. I took profits on a resource share I had early in the week and hoping for small rally to unload the rest.

from the TA view when the resistance is broken (50% broke upwards) and then price retrace below it is a very bearish signal, it is esily explain as when resistance broke all the bear exit the market (like me) and bull where in control, but then if price doesn't hold up that mean bulls are quite weak at this point, and now, below 50% retracement bear are stepping in again.

Yesterday I also enter the market and shorten MQG cfd (not that much on it), then I shortened also the ASX 200 march futures (around 4720), but then i closed the position before going to bed (around 4700) as i thought USA markets overnight would test back the 50% retracement, well, i was wrong and the future this morning closed at 4618.

but i will be shorting back the futures next week. bears are back in the game B)

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...it is esily explain as when resistance broke all the bear exit the market (like me) and bull where in control, but then if price doesn't hold up that mean bulls are quite weak at this point, and now, below 50% retracement bear are stepping in again....

Excellent explanation, I often wonder what the logic behind the TA stuff is. Much appreciated.

I am sure the other things have explanations too but no one ever explains them and so, as an illiterate in the field, it just looks like people playing pattern matching.

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Big volume on the falls in the US market. If this continues, it will re-test the entire rise from March. That would give the All Ords a target between 3800 - 4050, in which case the LPT's are going to freeze again. At worst, this could be Prechter's wet dream and the US markets go to new lows. Not having a crystall ball, I'll exercise my stop losses when they get hit and wait until things stabilise again. ohmy.gif

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The RBA M0 hit a new low this week......74 billion. Either the government must cut expenditure, the banks cut lending or rates must climb....which won't work.

This will be a good year to do some steady gold buying. $1,000 US is a good moment to buy. Forget everything else unless you are brave.

The best technique is to steady buy gold and then heavy buy when you see a good price.

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Big volume on the falls in the US market. If this continues, it will re-test the entire rise from March. That would give the All Ords a target between 3800 - 4050, in which case the LPT's are going to freeze again. At worst, this could be Prechter's wet dream and the US markets go to new lows. Not having a crystall ball, I'll exercise my stop losses when they get hit and wait until things stabilise again. ohmy.gif

I thought only the financials were hit?

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I thought only the financials were hit?

Resources took a direct hit as well, though the long term trend hasn't been breached.

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The engine of Europe (Germany) is also looking sick. The question now becomes is if this drop in the markets is only a short & sharp correction like in June/July 2009 or the beginning of a bigger correction.

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The follow through to last week's fireworks remains to be seen, but Goldman Sucks & JP Morgan took huge hits on very high volume.

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spdaily.jpg

Right on support. Tonight will be the test.

THe S&P500 futures are up around 1101, My view is that things are bearish untill a rally wouldn't brake consistenlly the 1120-25, a rally till 1120 is still bearish (even H&S is a real possibility). For the ASX200 I think the closest resistance (and selling opportunity) for the march future is around 4720-30 and 4780 (20 point more then the future for the ASX200 index)

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Whilst the current action in the Dow may not be the start of it, I expect that during this decade, the index is going to hit the bottom trendline again.

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