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cobran20

Canadian RE

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Canada & Oz have been following similar trends. The Canadian guy who updates this web site has been doing a good job of monitoring trends in the US & Canadian RE markets.

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Canada & Oz have been following similar trends. The Canadian guy who updates this web site has been doing a good job of monitoring trends in the US & Canadian RE markets.

i got a PAL MOVING TO CANANDA in about 2 years, he'll want to see this. he has already stated how houses over there are a lot better value for money

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i got a PAL MOVING TO CANANDA in about 2 years, he'll want to see this. he has already stated how houses over there are a lot better value for money

They are in the regional centres and smaller provinces. For example in Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Halifax, Moncton, St Johns etc you get good value. In Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal etc you don't tho most are still cheaper than Sydney for bang for buck.

The Canadian median is 320K ish. When was Australia's median 320K?

DYOR: http://www.remax.ca/

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Does this sound familiar?

"Unusual" Market to Affect Sales Pace (price)

Concerned about mortgage rule changes and rising interest rates, many Canadians decided to buy their homes earlier to save a few bucks -- likely causing the national housing market to slow down, says a real estate company.The resale market will start to slow in the second half of 2010 after six months of strong price appreciation and sales activity, predicts Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

While market fundamentals remain strong across most major centres in Canada, sales activity was overly "front-loaded" in the first half of the year and is expected to cool off for the third and fourth quarters.

Prices are also expected to steady in the second half of the year, says the company in its second-quarter house price survey.

The average price of detached bungalows in Canada from April to June was $331,868, an increase of nine per cent compared to the same period year ago.

The price of standard two-storey homes rose 8.7 per cent to $367,835 from April to June, while standard condos rose 7.3 per cent to $230,014, says the survey.

By the end of 2010, home price appreciation will likely average 6.8 per cent compared to last year, while home sales will increase slightly more than one per cent, says Royal LePage.

"We have seen an unusual pattern of activity in the housing market over the past 12 months, with the market experiencing a surge of activity and price increases that peaked in the fall of 2009 rather than spring," says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

"Early 2010 has followed a more typical seasonal pattern with prices and activity peaking in the second quarter.

"An expected increase in the supply of homes on the market will now bring stabilization in prices and in some cities, we will see both prices and unit sales decline towards the end of the year. This should not be interpreted as a severe correction, but rather a natural reaction to the market having peaked quite early this year."

The surge of activity in the first and second quarters of 2010 corresponds to a number of significant regulatory and financial industry changes that affected homebuyers during that time.

These include an increase in interest rates in the spring, tightening of mortgage lending rules for first-time homebuyers and investors, and the lead up to the introduction of the harmonized sales tax (HST) in B.C. and Ontario.

"Anecdotal evidence suggests that these factors may have prompted an increase in housing market activity in early 2010, as people sought to get out ahead of the changes," says Soper.

"Moving into the next six months, key economic indicators such as employment growth will continue to bolster consumer confidence and help to ensure a fundamentally healthy housing market. Home prices will remain flat or decline slightly in most cities,"

One exception will be Alberta -- where prices "will be more likely to hold their value or increase in energy-producing economies, such as Alberta," he says.

A gradual improvement in the local sector could culminate in a sellers' market in the first quarter of next year.

In its national survey, Royal LePage says Canada's two biggest markets posted some of the largest increases from April to June compared to the same time last year.

Average prices in Vancouver rose to 19.1 per cent, up from 16.6, while prices in Toronto rose by an average of 11.4 per cent, up from 7.7.

But in recent years, these markets have tended to react much more aggressively to external stimulus and affordability is expected to erode after the sharp price increases from April to June.

As a result, downward pressure on prices is expected for the remainder of the year, says Royal LePage.

Similarly, the country's sharpest price increases occurred in St. John's, N. L, with prices up an average of 18.4 to 19.6 per cent.

A strong local economy driven by the oil sector combined with low inventory led to the robust increases, but eroding affordability and interest rates that are expected to rise will likely lead to more moderate price appreciation in the second half of the year.

More moderate price appreciation. Certainly. While facing lower credit and increased inventory. Booyah.

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My CallgaryHerald: Prices up. Slowly

"The sharp drop in demand considerably weakened market conditions in recent months," he wrote in his analysis. "While supply has begun to adjust modestly downward, it remains plentiful, even a little excessive relative to the current pace of home resales."Consequently, the provincial market has shifted very close to being a buyers' market, which will exert some downward pressure on home prices in the near term. As demand picks up later this year and further downward adjustment is made to supply however, we expect that a stronger balance will emerge that will lead to moderate price increases during the course of next year.

This guy should write for Fairfax.

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They are in the regional centres and smaller provinces. For example in Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Halifax, Moncton, St Johns etc you get good value. In Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal etc you don't tho most are still cheaper than Sydney for bang for buck.

The Canadian median is 320K ish. When was Australia's median 320K?

DYOR: http://www.remax.ca/

oh yea he has been looking, but if he wants to live in a major city i guess hes as screwed as here in oz.

i should tell him to move to Michigan, and drive to work in canada

Edited by savagegoose

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Home prices and sales drop in Hamilton, across Canada

THE CANADIAN PRESS

(Sep 16, 2010)

Hamilton-area house prices have been dropping for months, along with residential sales, according to local real estate statistics.

That's in keeping with a national trend, as Canadian home prices dropped in August for the third time this summer.

The average home cost here has fallen from $315,000 in May to $299,000 in August, according to data from the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington.

Residential and condominium unit sales also dropped from 1,404 in May to 978 in August, said Royal LePage sales representative Suhreta Kovac, who provided the statistics.

One economist predicts Canadian home prices could fall as much as 7 per cent next year as fewer buyers compete for a growing number of houses for sale.

The average price of a Canadian home was $324,928 last month, down from $330,351 in July and $342,662 in June, said a report issued yesterday from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

More: http://www.thespec.com/news/business/article/256307--home-prices-and-sales-drop-in-hamilton-across-canada

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Globe&Mail: The Long Shadow Over Canada's Housing Market

This week, when the Bank of Canada released its latest report on the domestic economy, it specifically mentioned the prospect of “a more pronounced correction in the Canadian housing market” as one of three key risks.The primary reason for that, of course, is the mountain of debt carried by many Canadian households, which has worried the central bank governor for many months. Toronto-Dominion Bank said this week that Canadians will soon owe more than $1.50 for every dollar of disposable income, an unprecedented level. And home prices are already stretched far beyond their historical norms, particularly in the largest urban markets such as Vancouver.

It all adds up to a simple, unpleasant equation: High debts, plus high home prices, plus high unemployment, plus slow growth in incomes, equals a housing market that’s much different than the one Canadians are used to. Is it any wonder that, after 10 years of explosive growth, the housing market appears out of gas? Sales fell by as much as 45 per cent in the country's largest cities over the summer and haven't recovered through the traditionally brisk fall market.

That means the summer effectively wiped out a year’s worth of gains, with the average resale price back at year-ago levels. New construction fared little better, with the seasonally adjusted rate of starts falling to 186,000 in September from April’s peak of 201,900.

That has dramatic implications for employment and consumer spending levels – and for an economy that has grown accustomed to relying on housing-related spending for about 20 per cent of its gross domestic product.

“Canada doesn't need a U.S.-style problem to have a problem,” said Alexandre Pestov, a market analyst at Three Bears Research in Toronto. “A Canadian-style issue will do just fine.”

<snip>

Canada's problem is different – easy credit is luring people into buying houses they may not be able to afford when rates rise to more historically normal levels. That's why economists and market watchers foresee a drawn-out retraction of the market that will gradually erode prices, rather than a crash.

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New Mortgage Rules...

OTTAWA — Tougher mortgage lending rules, as unveiled by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Monday, could add an estimated $100 a month in carrying costs for future homeowners — pricing some people out of the real estate market — and affect roughly 20,000 home sales in 2011, analysts say.Those rough estimates emerged after the government announced changes that would see Ottawa no longer guarantee insured mortgages with terms exceeding 30 years (the previous maximum was 35 years).

Also, Mr. Flaherty lowered the maximum amount Canadians can borrow against the value of their homes, to 85% from 90%, on a refinancing; and removed federal government backing for home equity lines of credit, or so-called HELOCs, whose popularity soared in the past decade with growth double that of mortgage debt.

<snip>

In February of 2010, Mr. Flaherty moved to toughen up the mortgage rules amid worries that Canada was in the midst of a housing market bubble. The reforms, since introduced, compelled borrowers to meet standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if the buyer wanted a shorter-term, variable rate loan; reduced the amount Canadian can borrow against their home, to 90% of the property value from 95%; and require purchasers of rental properties to issue a 20% down payment as opposed to 5%. The moves played a role, observers say, in slowing down real estate activity.

Analysts at Scotia Capital suggested government regulation was the way to go in terms of curbing household appetite for credit as opposed to the Bank of Canada raising interest rates, which they said would be “imprudent” at this time.

The central bank issues its latest rate statement on Tuesday and it is expected to hold its benchmark rate at its present 1% level as signs indicate the economy may be benefiting from renewed business and consumer confidence in the United States.

Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada, said the extraordinarily low-rate environment “provides all the incentive to consumers to borrow and spend and none of the incentive to save. You can try to [regulate] that away but that is apt to be fraught with significant frustration.”

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woah - a Canadian RE median of 320K!!!

That's alot more affordable than many Aussie homes. In fact, that median is just about half of Australia's median housing price - and even less than half compared to some Aussie hot spots.

I don't know about moving to Canada though - I hear the weather is not so grand as OZ

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I don't know about moving to Canada though - I hear the weather is not so grand as OZ

I'd argue you could die from exposure in both countries pretty quickly...just differently! -Vancouver is just a bit cooler than Melbourne.

A $320k mortgage is pretty beefy for a young couple in, say, Victoria. In my view CDN medians are a bit misleading as the metro populations are each, in some way, quite unique.

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Amusing how in his latest update, the overpriced % he calculates is similar to Keen's.

link

Australia's median home price detached from the long-term Price/Family-Income ratio of 2.8 way back in 1997. The onset of record low interest rates shortly thereafter enabled consumers to buy more expensive homes w/o increasing their mortgage payments. Subsequent irrational exuberance swept the P/FI ratio to an unsustainable bubble high of 4.8 in 2007.

The year-to-date annual median price for 2011 is $412k. 2007 is considered the Bubble Peak as Price in that year was 71% ($179k) above the P/FI ratio trend. The same metric infers median price should be only $303k this year. As shown by trajectory in the chart, it is probable new highs for median Home Price will not be set 'til 2020. In summary, the Australian realty bubble was $109k (36%) over trend & 3.8 P/FI ratio in October 2011. And using monthly data, last month's $403k median national price is down $27k (6%) from the $430k high back in 2007. Home prices fell by $800/week over the last 90 days.

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Canada & Oz have been following similar trends. The Canadian guy who updates this web site has been doing a good job of monitoring trends in the US & Canadian RE markets.

Update

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Canadian entrepreneur trying to get RE information available a la zillow.com

MLS - greaterfool.ca

Is there a correlation between good information and affordable prices? Maybe. Americans are privy to property details which realtors systematically and purposefully hide from Canadians. The only way most of us will ever discover what a house sold for last time, how long it was listed or re-listed, how many times the price was changed, escalations in property taxes or who handled the deal, is by begging a real estate agent. And even she cannot see what Zillow or Trulia reveals.So, the average house in Canada sells for $361,516. The average in the US, with ten times the population and economic output, is $184,000 – 49% less. Of course, disclosure doesn’t account for all of the insane premium on this side of the border, but I have no doubt it’s a factor. Blind buyers can often make dumbass decisions.

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