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Got Bonds

293 posts in this topic

It will be interesting if we can get a crysis in a few years where Bonds decline, like 1931 where first bonds rallied as the economy went down but then also crashed hard or were inflated away, depending on the currency but either way, lost value.

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4 hours ago, Swaize said:

It will be interesting if we can get a crysis in a few years where Bonds decline, like 1931 where first bonds rallied as the economy went down but then also crashed hard or were inflated away, depending on the currency but either way, lost value.

This is the classic way to massacre existing bond holders. Any foreigners holding such bonds (who obviously don't know the history of Argentina) are getting burned on both the exchange rate and the price of their bonds.

Argentina Central Bank hikes interest rate to 60 percent

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Well....you make it sound toooo reasonable, actually it was like this:

"

in 2017, The new bond had a coupon of 7.125 percent, the finance ministry said in a statement that hailed success of the sale as evidence that Argentina had regained "credibility and confidence."

Still, the move came as a surprise given Argentina only last year ended a decade-long dispute with creditors over its 2002 default 

"

 

"

Though the 100-year bond appeared to be well oversubscribed, some investors questioned the wisdom of investing for a such a long term in a country as volatile as Argentina.

"It's awfully premature for Argentina to issue 100-year bonds," said Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer of Puma Investments. "When you look back in history, I'm not sure we can find a 20-year period where Argentina has not defaulted."

Citigroup Inc and HSBC acted as lead book runners on the deal, while Nomura Securities and Banco Santander were co-managers.

"

"

When Argentina issued its so-called “century bond” in June 2017,  many held it up as the peak of bull market insanity. After all, what sane individual lends money for 100 years to a serial-defaulter?

After the Latin American country began discussions with the International Monerary Fund in May2018 the schadenfreude in some quarters was palpable!  They managed to default on 100-year Bonds within 1 year....

"

I understand, that those 100-year bonds were dollar denominated.

" The pain has been particularly acute for investors of the country’s 100-year bonds. Their price dropped to 91 cents on the dollar from 103 cents at the end of last year as traders unnerved by the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates dumped securities with long maturities. Overall, the country’s dollar-denominated bonds lost 2.1 percent over the first four days of the week, leaving them down more than 6 percent on the year, the worst performance in emerging markets, "

Mexico issued a 100-year bond in 2010......

 

Edited by Swaize

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5 hours ago, Swaize said:

Well....you make it sound toooo reasonable, actually it was like this:

"

in 2017, The new bond had a coupon of 7.125 percent, the finance ministry said in a statement that hailed success of the sale as evidence that Argentina had regained "credibility and confidence."

Still, the move came as a surprise given Argentina only last year ended a decade-long dispute with creditors over its 2002 default 

"

 

"

Though the 100-year bond appeared to be well oversubscribed, some investors questioned the wisdom of investing for a such a long term in a country as volatile as Argentina.

"It's awfully premature for Argentina to issue 100-year bonds," said Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer of Puma Investments. "When you look back in history, I'm not sure we can find a 20-year period where Argentina has not defaulted."

Citigroup Inc and HSBC acted as lead book runners on the deal, while Nomura Securities and Banco Santander were co-managers.

"

"

When Argentina issued its so-called “century bond” in June 2017,  many held it up as the peak of bull market insanity. After all, what sane individual lends money for 100 years to a serial-defaulter?

After the Latin American country began discussions with the International Monerary Fund in May2018 the schadenfreude in some quarters was palpable!  They managed to default on 100-year Bonds within 1 year....

"

I understand, that those 100-year bonds were dollar denominated.

" The pain has been particularly acute for investors of the country’s 100-year bonds. Their price dropped to 91 cents on the dollar from 103 cents at the end of last year as traders unnerved by the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates dumped securities with long maturities. Overall, the country’s dollar-denominated bonds lost 2.1 percent over the first four days of the week, leaving them down more than 6 percent on the year, the worst performance in emerging markets, "

Mexico issued a 100-year bond in 2010......

 

Anybody buying bonds from countries prone to defaulting is asking for trouble. Perhaps if you're buying them for speculative purposes, where there is a market where you can easily sell them, I cannot see why you would touch them.

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Well 7% interest rate in dollars is NICE!

Its like beating most other hedgefunds just by sitting on your hands for a year.

Who could have known that argentina defaults within a year?  Not even i am soooo pessimistic. I would have given them til 2021 when martys dollar rally is scheduled. Maby by then Mexico defaults on its 100 year bonds haha :laugh:

Edited by Swaize

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2 hours ago, Swaize said:

Well 7% interest rate in dollars is NICE!

Its like beating most other hedgefunds just by sitting on your hands for a year.

Who could have known that argentina defaults within a year?  Not even i am soooo pessimistic. I would have given them til 2021 when martys dollar rally is scheduled. Maby by then Mexico defaults on its 100 year bonds haha :laugh:

Argentina had already defaulted twice in the last 20 years. Buying their bonds was a guaranteed game of russian roulette.

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Some people like that game  :wub:

I think bill gross went down by buying russian bonds.... 

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So can we get an overview of all european rates in chart format and see which ones are rising?

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18 hours ago, Swaize said:

So can we get an overview of all european rates in chart format and see which ones are rising?

link

Quote

Interest Rate | Europe

Country Last   Previous Highest Lowest      
Turkey 17.75 Jul/18 17.75 500 4.5 % Daily  
Ukraine 17.50 Jul/18 17 300 6.5 % Daily  
Belarus 10.00 Jul/18 10 480 10 % Daily  
Russia 7.25 Jul/18 7.25 17 5 % Daily  
Moldova 6.50 Sep/18 6.5 21 3.5 % Daily  
Iceland 4.25 Aug/18 4.25 18 4.25 % Daily  
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.93 Apr/18 3.96 94.09 3.88 % Daily  
Macedonia 3.25 Aug/18 3 15.21 3 % Daily  
Serbia 3.00 Aug/18 3 18 3 % Daily  
Croatia 2.50 Jul/18 2.5 4291 2.5 % Daily  
Romania 2.50 Aug/18 2.5 12.5 1.75 % Daily  
Poland 1.50 Jul/18 1.5 24 1.5 % Daily  
Czech Republic 1.25 Aug/18 1 39 0.05 % Daily  
Albania 1.00 Aug/18 1 8.5 1 % Daily  
Hungary 0.90 Aug/18 0.9 28 0.9 % Daily  
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/18 0.5 17 0.25 % Daily  
Norway 0.50 Aug/18 0.5 11 0.5 % Daily  
Austria 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Belgium 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Bulgaria 0.00 Sep/18 0 5.77 0 % Daily  
Cyprus 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Estonia 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Euro Area 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Finland 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
France 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Germany 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Greece 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Ireland 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Italy 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Latvia 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Lithuania 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Luxembourg 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Malta 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Netherlands 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Portugal 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Slovakia 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Slovenia 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Spain 0.00 Jul/18 0 4.75 0 % Daily  
Sweden -0.50 Jul/18 -0.5 8.91 -0.5 % Daily  
Denmark -0.65 Jul/18 -0.65 15 -0.75 % Daily  
Switzerland -0.75 Jul/18 -0.75 3.5 -0.75 % Daily

 

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3 hours ago, cobran20 said:

US bond yields breaking to new highs

1.JPG

2.JPG

That gives a boost to the US dollar.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/04/soaring-us-dollar-threatens-trouble-for-emerging-markets

 Soaring US dollar threatens trouble for emerging markets

Strong economy and hawkish monetary policy pushback greenback ever higher – and other currencies are suffering

Martin Farrer Thu 4 Oct 2018 06.24 BST Last modified on Thu 4 Oct 2018 08.43 BST

The US dollar continued to soar in value over Wednesday night, signalling the likelihood of more interest rate rises and spelling trouble for developing countries that have borrowed heavily in the greenback.

...

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amazing that czech yields are so low!!!

i mean they dont have much debt....

and its an awesome country, i could live there, women are beautiful, im dating one ;)

but THAT low?

and hungary i dont belive, its probaly an error, i know that country and its a sh*thole even budapest where half the people live.  i check and i see.... 3.90% on the 10y yield of hungary

czech 10y yield is half of that at 2%

so those yields on the list above are all 3m yields then. I think we should watch the 10y yield. That is the benchmark/standard to measure the sustainability of a country.

By the way, Marty forecasted the top in Bonds for October2015 and was just about 8months off. Pretty awesome for someone who invests on longer timeframes like 3-5years. That was a monumental shift and it could have happened anytime from 2012-2017 if you asked me. So hat off to martys REEEEALLY LOOOONGTERM forecasting. Whenever i look back at his predictions after a few months im like..... damn he was pretty good. And whenever people mock him, they usually misheard the number he gave, like THIS happens IF THAT NUMBER gets elected.

Edited by Swaize

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48 minutes ago, Swaize said:

amazing that czech yields are so low!!!

i mean they dont have much debt....

and its an awesome country, i could live there, women are beautiful, im dating one ;)

but THAT low?

and hungary i dont belive, its probaly an error, i know that country and its a sh*thole even budapest where half the people live.  i check and i see.... 3.90% on the 10y yield of hungary

czech 10y yield is half of that at 2%

so those yields on the list above are all 3m yields then. I think we should watch the 10y yield. That is the benchmark/standard to measure the sustainability of a country.

By the way, Marty forecasted the top in Bonds for October2015 and was just about 8months off. Pretty awesome for someone who invests on longer timeframes like 3-5years. That was a monumental shift and it could have happened anytime from 2012-2017 if you asked me. So hat off to martys REEEEALLY LOOOONGTERM forecasting. Whenever i look back at his predictions after a few months im like..... damn he was pretty good. And whenever people mock him, they usually misheard the number he gave, like THIS happens IF THAT NUMBER gets elected.

Careful with what you say. Socrates is forecasting drought caused by cooling weather, which of course we know  can't be true as the experts tells us that the earth is doomed to boil to death! :)

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14 hours ago, Swaize said:

amazing that czech yields are so low!!!

i mean they dont have much debt.....

Czech is still on the local currency though right (crown, krone whatever the local word was). That might have something to do with it I guess.

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Yes koruna

Well Socrates says right after the dollar rallye there should be a commodity agriculture rallye into around 2024

That could be epic to get in there on time. Usually the last 3 years are best, so maby that rallye starts 2021

The next 3 years from now on til then should be djia and usd rising

Edited by Swaize

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3 hours ago, Swaize said:

Yes koruna

Well Socrates says right after the dollar rallye there should be a commodity agriculture rallye into around 2024

That could be epic to get in there on time. Usually the last 3 years are best, so maby that rallye starts 2021

The next 3 years from now on til then should be djia and usd rising

and what will cause that agriculture rally? :)

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