boz

Got Bonds

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Have our 10 year bond yields bottomed? The daily, weekly & monthly charts all exhibit positive divergence on the MACD  (blue line)

 

The bottom is still holding but not overly confident that a lasting bottom is in place.

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Must be getting close to a peak in bonds! Presumably they are concerned about the ability of surrounding countries being able to to repay monies and/or expecting the Euro to disappear and being paid in Deutsche marks rather than liras, francs or similar?

 

Investors Now Pay Germany to Borrow for 10 Years

 

I'd tend to agree with Armstrong that the negative yields are going to drive capital towards the US where you get some (even if miniscule) return.

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On 3/17/2015 at 6:51 PM, cobran20 said:

Have our 10 year bond yields bottomed? The daily, weekly & monthly charts all exhibit positive divergence on the MACD  (blue line)

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Sadly no as yields dropped to new lows. The yields need to rise above the May 2015 high to give any confidence.

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Like anyone would seriously listen to Alan. He took us to the brink by claiming we were in a new age of economics.

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Warm Temperatures Mean Lower Inflation, To a Point

Quote

... And the big El Niño spike in global average temperatures which saw a peak in 2015 has yet to fully be manifested in inflation rates.  It should bring a bottom for the CPI inflation rate ideally in 2019.  The implication of the chart is that inflation rates could be negative for the next couple of years, but I am not so sure we will actually see negative inflation rates.  This leading indication works better for timing and direction than for the magnitude of movements.

A 2019 bottom for inflation rates should mean a bottom for bonds yields in around 2021, given the differing lag times for those data series.  I have no doubt that the Fed economist and officials will continue to be confused about why their actions have not been the decisive factor.  They think that the Fed is stronger than Mother Nature. 

The message to take from this is that we should all start getting ready for what the recent cooling means.  The El Niño temperature peak in 2015-16 means a bottom for inflation in 2019, and a bottom therefore for bond yields in 2021.  What follows in the aftermath of global cooling should be a diminishing of prosperity, and a rise in interest rates.

I guess if the global alarmists are correct, then yields will go into endless negative yields forever. But if it is just another cycle that has been going on for millennia, then sometime after 2019, many will be wearing a lot of egg on their faces!

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