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Bernard L. Madoff

Baltic Dry Goods and HARPEX

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BDI:

http://www.bloomberg...icker1=BDIY:IND

and

HARPEX:

http://www.harperpet...pex/harpexVP.do

NB The Baltic is dry goods shipping (Commods); The HARPEX is finished goods (container ships).

AK posted a graph yesterday, showing that China has stopped stockpiling. That probably explains why the Baltic Dry Index is falling as China is importing less raw materials, whilst the Harpex index is rising, representing an increase in the container exports out of China.

post-148-055841000 1302082417_thumb.jpg

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BDI:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY:IND

and

HARPEX:

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do

NB The Baltic is dry goods shipping (Commods); The HARPEX is finished goods (container ships).

These two are definitely worth a revisit.

Take the Baltic Dry out to 5 year chart, and the HARPEX out to 10 yr.

This will give a better picture of where we are at.

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The more I think about it, these two indices probably give us the new normal.

At least for the predominant future.

Where they are currently set is where they will likely stay into the immediate and long term future.

I think they indicate the resetting of the future pricing, and everything else will have to fall into line with this reality.

Those high prices of just a few short years ago, were the anomaly, NOT the current ones.

This is what the world has yet to come to grips with.

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Keep in mind it doesn't demonstrate supply increase, so it is not exclusively representing demand.

Yes. I appreciate that Mr Med.

But by going back over the past 10 years, we see the anomaly in the form of the run up to 2007 - 2008.

These indices both went ballistic, as industry anticipated unprecedented growth levels into the future and ramped up their own reserves.

What I'm trying to suggest is that maybe we are now getting back to more sustainable levels of traffic, reflected in the price.

Once all the financial hubris is washed out of the system, this is somewhere close to where the reset will be.

On that basis, I'm predicting that we will return to pre 1990 levels, give or take a notch or two, to allow for population growth.

It would take massive credit growth, to reach 2007 levels in a hurry.

And when we know that the last decade's growth was built almost entirely on leverage.

We aren't going back there anytime soon.

Oh sure, another couple of generations and it will be on again.

I almost guarantee it, if I am any judge of human character.

But for the immediate future, once bitten, twice shy.

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BDI:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY:IND

and

HARPEX:

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do

NB The Baltic is dry goods shipping (Commods); The HARPEX is finished goods (container ships).

 

The BDI has risen sharply along with the prices of politically incorrect coal, whilst the Harpex keeps making new lows. I would assume that the BDI is a leading indicator as the import of raw materials should translate into an increase in finished goods?

post-148-0-85960500-1473634391_thumb.jpg

post-148-0-08428100-1473634393_thumb.jpg

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